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Mar 13 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Defintely worth a read. A view from within China on the Russia-Ukraine war and China. Overall a pessimistic reading on what Putin’s invasion means.
Here is the full translation: uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-…
Just one excerpt that stands out (and there are many others in the piece). The view that Russia can’t fight a protracted war (in other words China will not be bailing Putin out as the Russian economy collapses). Coming from a senior voice in China, it’s revealing.
Will keep updating this thread with different pieces on the Chinese view if people want to send them in too. Here’s another worthwhile one.
Returning to the Chinese position on the war, the Russian request for weaponry (as well as revealing how much the Russians are losing equipment and had not planned this out) basically forces China to define its position.
If China starts sending it significant support, particularly the Kalibre missiles and other targeted munitions (which Russia seems short of at present) it would have to be read as a commitment to continuing the war and not a desire to have it end quickly as some have assumed.
Otoh, if the Chinese rebuff the request or delay/prevaricate in fulfilling it, would support the idea that they want this thing over. Russia has certainly put them on the spot with this request.
And would make it far more difficult for China to improve relations with the USA (and its allies such as Japan, Korea, etc) for alot longer.
Another take on the implications of China providing significant direct military support for Russia. A full hybrid-war. Might be a little dramatic (there is along tradition of aiding sides of conflicts without directly participating) but worth considering
A academic view on what China will do (In the Guardian), China wont supply weapons as its not in Chinese interest (summarized).
A story that China has said it will provide military support.
Otoh, carnage on the Chinese markets would seem to favor the Chinese wanting this war over sooner.
And a story claiming China would not provide support now as its too prominent. Your guess is as good as mine

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 15
With the majority of the Russian Army still unable to mount major operations for the past week, and what looked to be a very static day yesterday, I thought I might bring together some of the more 'positive' visions of Russian strategy and military prospects and at come comments.
Will go through a few of these today, as there a number of different ones which take the overall Russian military situation, the situation with Russian logistics, and what is the new Russian strategy for victory.
Starting with this report by Meduza three days ago, maybe the most positive of them all. Here we have Russian forces as following a successful military strategy.
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 14
Battle around Kyiv, some interesting signs from different sources. Has the risky drive from Sumy by the Russians petered out--or was it never as close to start? This will have serious implications to any move on the Ukrainian capital.
This was the UK MOD's intelligence estimate map on 11 March. The drive seemed very close to the outskirts of Kyiv. Image
This is the most recent map, just released an hour ago. The Russian drive is now much further back, all the way to Romny. It this is true, that drive is in serious trouble. Image
Read 15 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 14
One of the best attempts so far to explain one of the most important questions of the whole war, Logistics or otherwise. How are the Ukrainians resupplying? Will add a few comments here as it’s so impactful.
Ukraine is huge in European terms and the fighting is mostly in the Far East of the country. Away from the border with NATO countries. How they are getting the large numbers of weapons from NATO to the fighting is probably railways.
In the midst of the war, the ukrainian rail service has kept running from the border to almost all of the country, including Kyiv, Odessa and Dnipro. This is hugely beneficial to Ukraine.
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 13
If Putin isn’t crazy, he will be looking for a way out of this disaster as quickly as possible (delay just means more damage for him as well as Ukraine). He can’t magically make a war winnable, just because he wants to.
The thing that must be concentrating his mind now is Kyiv. He has two choices. The first is to try and level one of the most important cities in history, with huge emotional importance to Russians as well as Ukrainians.
While at the same time basically wrecking his army by sending it into a large city of millions of people. And guaranteeing permanent sanctions for the rest of his life. OR, cutting some kind of deal. The second has to be more rational.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 13
A thread on issues for which I would like data, and which might reveal how the war will develop. Will summarise in a tweet each. Any help appreciated.
1) Are there signs of the Russians sending large reinforcements from outside of the theatre to support the invasion? The invading forces should be worn out in 2 weeks to a month. Without significant aid, that is a sign that the war might level off.
2) Is there good data of the operating tempo and mission types of Russian fixed wing aircraft over Ukraine? Looking at this we can see how successfully or not the Ukrainians are in denying the Russians air superiority.
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 12
Logistics Rule--look at the map. You might be wondering why the Russian invasion of Ukraine looks like a group of almost equidistant road-linked thrusts stretching from Russian and Belarus into Ukraine. (thanks to @Nrg8000 for this)
Turning to this War on the Rocks piece, it is said that the average Russian unit has a truck lift to take it to 90 miles (140km) from the closest large supply dump (see below). You would have to double the trucks on hand to get to 180 miles. warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedin…
Here is the map with a 140km/90mile line (handdrawn, apologies) in black in the middle. What you can see is that there have hardly been any Russian thrusts that have exceeded the natural limit set by their truck lift.
Read 19 tweets

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