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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 14 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
One of the best attempts so far to explain one of the most important questions of the whole war, Logistics or otherwise. How are the Ukrainians resupplying? Will add a few comments here as it’s so impactful.
Ukraine is huge in European terms and the fighting is mostly in the Far East of the country. Away from the border with NATO countries. How they are getting the large numbers of weapons from NATO to the fighting is probably railways.
In the midst of the war, the ukrainian rail service has kept running from the border to almost all of the country, including Kyiv, Odessa and Dnipro. This is hugely beneficial to Ukraine.
If you remember that very quick primer I tweeted about logistics a while back, it’s much more efficient and fast to use rail lines than trucks. Can carry much more, much easily.
Why then aren’t the Russians destroying Ukrainian rail lines? Great quesrion. Because they can’t rely on trucks to go so far (and the Ukrainians are destroying lots of them) the Russians also would need the Ukrainian rail lines if they wanted to ever advance into the west
It indicates Putin’s maximalist aims, he wanted the whole county and the Russian military expected to use the Ukrainian train lines to help them do it. This is all very World War 2 in Europe btw.
Planning large operations on the extension of rail supply to create depots in the front and then trucks used for the front onwards. Here is the link to my piece where I describe that process. cambridge.org/core/books/abs…
If right, this could reveal a lot. If the trains keep running than both Ukrainian supply is continuing well and it may be that Putin still is planning on trying to take all of Ukraine. Logistics again…
A really good map with the military situation and the inclusion of Ukrainian rail lines. Indicates the different routes of supply, if the railways keep running.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 16
Some reflections of where we are now strategically in the war, and whether we might be entering the second phase of the war where all sides are altering their plans. This phase could determine how long and terrible this war will be.
The first phase of the war would be the failure of Putin's original strategy. The Russians drastically underestimated Ukrainian resistance and identity, miscalculated on NATO/EU response and seemed unaware of major flaws in their own military capabilities.
They've been dealing with that miscalculation since. As They are having major problems getting enough force to Kyiv to assault the city (as opposed to long-range bombardment), maybe even weeks away from an effort. Otoh, they are dong relatively better in the south and east.
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 15
I hear alot of talk about Putin switching to a southern/eastern alone strategy. A question I have, is how does that remain viable? Unless Ukraine signed over those territories it would involve perma-war, ethnic cleansing and perma-brutal sanctions with a collapsing economy.
The Russians might be able to take large parts of the Donbas, but how would they hold it?
Think the conversation on this so far makes alot of sense, would all depend if the Ukrainian government signed over large chunks of its territory. But why would it do that. Russia is the one with the crippling sanctions and Ukraine holds the key to them.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 15
With the majority of the Russian Army still unable to mount major operations for the past week, and what looked to be a very static day yesterday, I thought I might bring together some of the more 'positive' visions of Russian strategy and military prospects and at come comments.
Will go through a few of these today, as there a number of different ones which take the overall Russian military situation, the situation with Russian logistics, and what is the new Russian strategy for victory.
Starting with this report by Meduza three days ago, maybe the most positive of them all. Here we have Russian forces as following a successful military strategy.
Read 16 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 14
Battle around Kyiv, some interesting signs from different sources. Has the risky drive from Sumy by the Russians petered out--or was it never as close to start? This will have serious implications to any move on the Ukrainian capital.
This was the UK MOD's intelligence estimate map on 11 March. The drive seemed very close to the outskirts of Kyiv. Image
This is the most recent map, just released an hour ago. The Russian drive is now much further back, all the way to Romny. It this is true, that drive is in serious trouble. Image
Read 18 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 13
If Putin isn’t crazy, he will be looking for a way out of this disaster as quickly as possible (delay just means more damage for him as well as Ukraine). He can’t magically make a war winnable, just because he wants to.
The thing that must be concentrating his mind now is Kyiv. He has two choices. The first is to try and level one of the most important cities in history, with huge emotional importance to Russians as well as Ukrainians.
While at the same time basically wrecking his army by sending it into a large city of millions of people. And guaranteeing permanent sanctions for the rest of his life. OR, cutting some kind of deal. The second has to be more rational.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 13
A thread on issues for which I would like data, and which might reveal how the war will develop. Will summarise in a tweet each. Any help appreciated.
1) Are there signs of the Russians sending large reinforcements from outside of the theatre to support the invasion? The invading forces should be worn out in 2 weeks to a month. Without significant aid, that is a sign that the war might level off.
2) Is there good data of the operating tempo and mission types of Russian fixed wing aircraft over Ukraine? Looking at this we can see how successfully or not the Ukrainians are in denying the Russians air superiority.
Read 7 tweets

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