A thread on issues for which I would like data, and which might reveal how the war will develop. Will summarise in a tweet each. Any help appreciated.
1) Are there signs of the Russians sending large reinforcements from outside of the theatre to support the invasion? The invading forces should be worn out in 2 weeks to a month. Without significant aid, that is a sign that the war might level off.
2) Is there good data of the operating tempo and mission types of Russian fixed wing aircraft over Ukraine? Looking at this we can see how successfully or not the Ukrainians are in denying the Russians air superiority.
3) Is there some data (not pictures) on Ukrainian destruction of Russian trucks? Again, will give an indication of Russian options for advance going forward.
4) Is there evidence of either Russia creating supply dumps deeper into Ukraine or using the Ukrainian rail network to push supplies forward? Both would make operations much easier for the Russians.
5) Are there any validated claims of Russian units refusing to engage in dangerous operations? Obviously would give an idea of the state of morale.
6) what are the best figures on Russian and Ukrainian troop losses? Will give a pretty good idea of how long armies can remain combat effective. Particularly the Russians.
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