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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 14 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
Battle around Kyiv, some interesting signs from different sources. Has the risky drive from Sumy by the Russians petered out--or was it never as close to start? This will have serious implications to any move on the Ukrainian capital.
This was the UK MOD's intelligence estimate map on 11 March. The drive seemed very close to the outskirts of Kyiv.
This is the most recent map, just released an hour ago. The Russian drive is now much further back, all the way to Romny. It this is true, that drive is in serious trouble.
This fits in with an estimate of the Institute for the Study of War last night, which wondered if the Russians were even able to launch an assault on Kyiv in the coming period.
You can link to the whole ISW report here. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
If these assessments are right (and the indications are that the Russians are nowhere near having the forces to take Kyiv in place, maybe not even to surround it, it has significant implications for the rest of the war.
Russian will have to attempt another major build up of forces around Kyiv, while the Ukrainians continue their defensive preparations. It would also mean a very long, destructive Russian bombardment (again if they could pull it off).
Also an indication of Russian strategy in crisis. They seem to be trying a huge number of different efforts in piece meal fashion, without gathering and being able to supply the right force for any of them.
This map is a strategic catastrophe waitinng to happen A drive on Kyiv, an attempt to seize Sumy (the Bastogne of this war) a continuing bombardment of Kharkiv, a siege of Mariupol, an attempt on Odessa and even a possible more for Dnipro. No way they can do all of this.
Look at the disjointed nature of their operations. And in many ways these efforts are not even self supporting. Bizarre, unless Im missing something.
A take on Russian problems that echoes this. By @michaeldweiss newlinesmag.com/argument/putin…
Another view that the Russians dont have the forces to take Kyiv.
Returning to this tweet from yesterday morning. If the Russians dont send fresh well-trained troops (and this will not be mercenaries or people impressed off the streets in Crimea) very soon, their whole strategy seems pointless. Any new intelligence?
The basic mathematics of Russia’s strategic dilemma. 100 %committed , Already below 90% of force left, once they get below 75% their overall effectiveness should plummet. Unless a new army appears.
If Russia has no plans to bring in significant numbers of new regular forces, they cannot go for a maximalist victory, so whatever happens Putin’s original strategy has failed.
Most recent MOD map, seems identical to yesterday and Sumy-Kyiv thrust is still back at Romny.
Might sense to consolidate this in one thread.
U.K. MOD update which focusses on personnel. The losses of soldiers seems to be restricting Russian operations already and they are trying to plug some holes using mercenaries and forces from other regions.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 16
Some reflections of where we are now strategically in the war, and whether we might be entering the second phase of the war where all sides are altering their plans. This phase could determine how long and terrible this war will be.
The first phase of the war would be the failure of Putin's original strategy. The Russians drastically underestimated Ukrainian resistance and identity, miscalculated on NATO/EU response and seemed unaware of major flaws in their own military capabilities.
They've been dealing with that miscalculation since. As They are having major problems getting enough force to Kyiv to assault the city (as opposed to long-range bombardment), maybe even weeks away from an effort. Otoh, they are dong relatively better in the south and east.
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 15
I hear alot of talk about Putin switching to a southern/eastern alone strategy. A question I have, is how does that remain viable? Unless Ukraine signed over those territories it would involve perma-war, ethnic cleansing and perma-brutal sanctions with a collapsing economy.
The Russians might be able to take large parts of the Donbas, but how would they hold it?
Think the conversation on this so far makes alot of sense, would all depend if the Ukrainian government signed over large chunks of its territory. But why would it do that. Russia is the one with the crippling sanctions and Ukraine holds the key to them.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 15
With the majority of the Russian Army still unable to mount major operations for the past week, and what looked to be a very static day yesterday, I thought I might bring together some of the more 'positive' visions of Russian strategy and military prospects and at come comments.
Will go through a few of these today, as there a number of different ones which take the overall Russian military situation, the situation with Russian logistics, and what is the new Russian strategy for victory.
Starting with this report by Meduza three days ago, maybe the most positive of them all. Here we have Russian forces as following a successful military strategy.
Read 16 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 14
One of the best attempts so far to explain one of the most important questions of the whole war, Logistics or otherwise. How are the Ukrainians resupplying? Will add a few comments here as it’s so impactful.
Ukraine is huge in European terms and the fighting is mostly in the Far East of the country. Away from the border with NATO countries. How they are getting the large numbers of weapons from NATO to the fighting is probably railways.
In the midst of the war, the ukrainian rail service has kept running from the border to almost all of the country, including Kyiv, Odessa and Dnipro. This is hugely beneficial to Ukraine.
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 13
If Putin isn’t crazy, he will be looking for a way out of this disaster as quickly as possible (delay just means more damage for him as well as Ukraine). He can’t magically make a war winnable, just because he wants to.
The thing that must be concentrating his mind now is Kyiv. He has two choices. The first is to try and level one of the most important cities in history, with huge emotional importance to Russians as well as Ukrainians.
While at the same time basically wrecking his army by sending it into a large city of millions of people. And guaranteeing permanent sanctions for the rest of his life. OR, cutting some kind of deal. The second has to be more rational.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 13
A thread on issues for which I would like data, and which might reveal how the war will develop. Will summarise in a tweet each. Any help appreciated.
1) Are there signs of the Russians sending large reinforcements from outside of the theatre to support the invasion? The invading forces should be worn out in 2 weeks to a month. Without significant aid, that is a sign that the war might level off.
2) Is there good data of the operating tempo and mission types of Russian fixed wing aircraft over Ukraine? Looking at this we can see how successfully or not the Ukrainians are in denying the Russians air superiority.
Read 7 tweets

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