“The only thing that we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.”

- Hegel
Hate to break it to some of these Perma Bears… but the Fed hasn’t run out of Bullets to fight inflation… they can continue to Hike rates & slow down QE or even step up RRP cash disbursements that make the Banking system even more ridiculously liquid.
The act of liquifying Banks in a Post Basel III & Gold Plated (including CCAR etc) world.. & creating M2 doesn’t in & of itself create inflation.. the Regulatory framework pushes money out of Banks on Supply side when it meets an optimal demand function. $XLF #Reflation
All those XS deposits are locked by Basel III LCR & Gold Plated RLAP… on Bank Cash flow statements… & Capital governs Sheet deployment… all the excess is just in HQLA & it’s release is fine tuned by a multitude of Regulations that are the true Money Supply Fulcrum.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with PlungeProtectionTeam

PlungeProtectionTeam Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @gamesblazer06

Feb 22
This ain’t gonna play well in Nov ‘22 for Dems.
The calculus was to push Inflation blame game on Russia…. Instead they are gonna get the Alt Left War on American Energy made Putin Richer & Americans Poorer.

Really bad optics…& factually correct. If I was him… I’d quickly come to some Russian resolution..

Like Yesterday.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 14
10Y +4bps to 1.98%
30Y +4bps to 2.28%
Growth rarely Decelerates meaningfully with $ZROZ down to this degree, unless This Time Is Different. Highly Doubt it
$XLF #Reflation
Margins usually Peak ~Year 3 (+/-) of a Recovery. For instance, Margins Peaked a Decade before the last Credit Cycle ended. Leadership changes…& Cycles usually Sequence.

$XLF #Reflation
Read 7 tweets
Jan 23
U nailed it imho….first thing people do is go back to the last episode (2018-2020) w/o a good understanding of the changing contextual backdrop as well as QT mitigants that are currently in place & evolving further.
$XLF #Reflation
Another big time clue imho… $BAC did a 4.5% Pref Issuance a few days ago… if that ain’t a sign the Market has too much liquidity not sure what is….
$XLF #Reflation
Read 5 tweets
Jan 22
The question for Investors (longer term horizon) is when do you sell $XLF ?
The answer is when Deposit Betas finally catch up to ~50% or 10Y3M Inverts Investors start to Pay Less & Less for every $1 of earnings power (driven by the Flow Through Rate of Inflation)….
Long Term “Investors” who respect the Credit Cycle Started selling $XLF at the Peak of Price/TBV on $BKX in Jan 2018 at 2.1x & also long $ZROZ …as Deposit Betas were Peaking + Cyclicals/Commodity stocks like $CAT etc..
The other natural question that should pop up is…well if the Taper is coming & BKX is 1.8x…why shouldn’t 1 sell now? Won’t the Fed kill the Cycle w QT.. why on earth would 1 wait around… after doubling/tripling money from the March 20 bottom.. why wouldn’t 1 crystallize gains?
Read 7 tweets
Jan 21
From most recent peak:
$XLF -7.5%
$QQQ -13%

YTD:
$HYG -1.8%
$XLF: -2.1%
$LQD -2.7%
$QQQ: -12%
$BKLN Flat
$JPM $145 - Way Oversold imho.

Banks, Front End & Valuations….
$XLF #Reflation
The Yield Curve….

Not Remotely close to an Inversion. $XLF #Reflation

Closed at 1.58% -4bps.
Read 16 tweets
Jan 21
Reserves up to $4.98B as of the 19th
If the thesis is QT is causing the Sell Off… maybe look at Reserves. Market Liquidity is Up… Not Down.

+$129B WoW $XLF #Reflation
Bank Liquidity has gonna Bananas… the Wall of Cash is coming…. So are Rate Hikes. $XLF #Reflation
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(