Hate to break it to some of these Perma Bears… but the Fed hasn’t run out of Bullets to fight inflation… they can continue to Hike rates & slow down QE or even step up RRP cash disbursements that make the Banking system even more ridiculously liquid.
The act of liquifying Banks in a Post Basel III & Gold Plated (including CCAR etc) world.. & creating M2 doesn’t in & of itself create inflation.. the Regulatory framework pushes money out of Banks on Supply side when it meets an optimal demand function. $XLF #Reflation
All those XS deposits are locked by Basel III LCR & Gold Plated RLAP… on Bank Cash flow statements… & Capital governs Sheet deployment… all the excess is just in HQLA & it’s release is fine tuned by a multitude of Regulations that are the true Money Supply Fulcrum.
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The calculus was to push Inflation blame game on Russia…. Instead they are gonna get the Alt Left War on American Energy made Putin Richer & Americans Poorer.
Really bad optics…& factually correct. If I was him… I’d quickly come to some Russian resolution..
Growth rarely Decelerates meaningfully with $ZROZ down to this degree, unless This Time Is Different. Highly Doubt it
$XLF #Reflation
Margins usually Peak ~Year 3 (+/-) of a Recovery. For instance, Margins Peaked a Decade before the last Credit Cycle ended. Leadership changes…& Cycles usually Sequence.
U nailed it imho….first thing people do is go back to the last episode (2018-2020) w/o a good understanding of the changing contextual backdrop as well as QT mitigants that are currently in place & evolving further.
$XLF #Reflation
Another big time clue imho… $BAC did a 4.5% Pref Issuance a few days ago… if that ain’t a sign the Market has too much liquidity not sure what is….
$XLF #Reflation
The question for Investors (longer term horizon) is when do you sell $XLF ?
The answer is when Deposit Betas finally catch up to ~50% or 10Y3M Inverts Investors start to Pay Less & Less for every $1 of earnings power (driven by the Flow Through Rate of Inflation)….
Long Term “Investors” who respect the Credit Cycle Started selling $XLF at the Peak of Price/TBV on $BKX in Jan 2018 at 2.1x & also long $ZROZ …as Deposit Betas were Peaking + Cyclicals/Commodity stocks like $CAT etc..
The other natural question that should pop up is…well if the Taper is coming & BKX is 1.8x…why shouldn’t 1 sell now? Won’t the Fed kill the Cycle w QT.. why on earth would 1 wait around… after doubling/tripling money from the March 20 bottom.. why wouldn’t 1 crystallize gains?