Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

With the majority of the Russian Army still unable to mount major operations for the past week, and what looked to be a very static day yesterday, I thought I might bring together some of the more 'positive' visions of Russian strategy and military prospects and at come comments.

Will go through a few of these today, as there a number of different ones which take the overall Russian military situation, the situation with Russian logistics, and what is the new Russian strategy for victory.

Starting with this report by Meduza three days ago, maybe the most positive of them all. Here we have Russian forces as following a successful military strategy.

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1502502818103672833

The report portrays the Russian pause in operations as a mostly successful attempt to resupply and regroup, and indeed move forward in key areas such as Kyiv. They also make significant play about the 'kettling' of Ukrainian forces in the Donbas (others saying that as well).

As well as portraying as successful ongoing Russian attempts to surround Kharkiv

Not sure its aged particularly well in only three days. Instead of the Russians about to surround Kyiv and move on the city, as the report replies, Russian forces have stalled on both sides of the city, indeed the tempo of their operations has declined.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1503348111116324868?s=20&t=CaxA20cOQZ9lcZAgDcBOGg

Russian attempts to surround Kharkiv have also stalled. Ukrainian counterrattacks there seem actually to be blocking Russian attempts to operate in other areas. Here is the most recent ISW report, which covers both Kyiv and Kharkiv. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

The thing that makes this report also very odd, is that there is no attempt to discuss how long the Russian forces can stay on operations without reinforcement. Its almost like the Russian Army is some immutable beast that will just plod on.

Also, the report doesnt say what Russian strategy is. Implies its about taking Kyiv (which looks like a much more difficult task than stated) and winning battles. There is no analysis of how such military operations will lead to Russia winning the war. Doubt this will age well.

Then there are the reports that Russian logistical problems have improved or at least should soon be significantly improved. As someone whose taken part in the logistics discussion, this fascinates me.

There were reports around a week ago that the Russians had solved their logistics problems and were about to launch an offensive on Kyiv. rusi.org/news-and-comme…

If they have solved their problems (and the lack of sustained operations makes that seem debatable) they have not been able to start a major offensive towards Kyiv and if anything, the logistics problems supporting the drive from Sumy have proven very difficult for them to master

Then there is this more detailed report, which makes the case that Russians will solve their logistics problems through putting Ukrainian rail lines into operation, presumably allowing the creation of large supply dumps deeper into Ukraine. mwi.usma.edu/russias-logist…

That would certainly be possible IF Russia had an entirely new army ready to go once it pacified eastern Ukraine and seized the main cities with rail lines (Kharkiv, Sumy, Mariupol).

The only problem is that this requires a long war sustainment. These cities must be captured by moving into them, the rail lines must be made operational, dumps must be created, and then an entirely new offensive undertaken to press west.

I doubt that Russia has the resources for this, and so far they are not sending in a new army. This might be a case of an ideal planning document then, that has little chance of being realized.