I hear alot of talk about Putin switching to a southern/eastern alone strategy. A question I have, is how does that remain viable? Unless Ukraine signed over those territories it would involve perma-war, ethnic cleansing and perma-brutal sanctions with a collapsing economy.
The Russians might be able to take large parts of the Donbas, but how would they hold it?
Think the conversation on this so far makes alot of sense, would all depend if the Ukrainian government signed over large chunks of its territory. But why would it do that. Russia is the one with the crippling sanctions and Ukraine holds the key to them.
Speaking of the South and Eastern strategy, Institute for the Study of War has just issues it’s update. Basically a war of parts. Kyiv not threatened meaningfully in the near future, Kharkiv secure, however Mariupol cut off. They don’t expect an amphibious assault on Odessa. 
Full report can be found here. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
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