Some reflections of where we are now strategically in the war, and whether we might be entering the second phase of the war where all sides are altering their plans. This phase could determine how long and terrible this war will be.
The first phase of the war would be the failure of Putin's original strategy. The Russians drastically underestimated Ukrainian resistance and identity, miscalculated on NATO/EU response and seemed unaware of major flaws in their own military capabilities.
They've been dealing with that miscalculation since. As They are having major problems getting enough force to Kyiv to assault the city (as opposed to long-range bombardment), maybe even weeks away from an effort. Otoh, they are dong relatively better in the south and east.
This RUSI paper makes the best case possible about how Russia could succeed in this area. It also makes sense militarily, as its much easier for the Russians to supply (very close to their depots in Crimea and Russia and D/L) rusi.org/explore-our-re…
It has to be said that this change would represent a major step down from Putin's original maximalist plan (all of Ukraine). However its much more achievable militarily (though suffers from real drawbacks politically such as a long war and long-term sanctions).
It also makes sense considering the personnel shortages the Russians are suffering, and would allow them to concentrate instead of spreading their army out eveywhere from Kyiv to Odessa in such a strange way.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1503975210504138754?s=20&t=J3mAx8hSM31WRgn8SN7dcw
If Russia might be reining in and focussing, there are signs that NATO and EU are about to step up their support for Ukraine by increasing the sophistication and quantity of the equipment they will dispatch.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1503972973329453058?s=20&t=J3mAx8hSM31WRgn8SN7dcw
One of the key things to watch out for is whether fixed wing aircraft will be sent--that would be a significant change in policy. The longer and better Ukraine fights, the more politically difficult it is for the NATO/EU not to ramp up their support.
And so the key to this new phase, remains what it has been throughout, the power of Ukrainian resistance. They have destroyed Putin's original strategy, might be forcing the Russians into something more limited and is on the cusp of compelling NATO/EU to send them more support.
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