Let this sink in—about half of elderly age 80+ in China are not fully vaccinated. And those who are are vaccinated with mostly SinoVac or Sinopharm—2 of the weaker protection vaccines. Half unvaccinated is gut punching bad—and bodes badly for the world if 🇨🇳 loses control.
2) And of the vaccinations in Hong Kong right now, most in the older generation are SinoVac and Sinopharm (non-mRNA) as well. Compare this to New Zealand or Singapore with very few Sino* vaccines.
3) while elderly 80+ are small, they have an outsized in place on total #COVID19 deaths in Hong Kong. The same problem will happen in China if it loses control in its population.
4) this is why China is so desperate to maintain control of the situation, and hence it’s lockdown of an entire 24 million person province yesterday.
5) this is why I’ve been warning that if mainland China 🇨🇳 follows the way of HK 🇭🇰, then the disruption to China and hence to the global economy would be epically bad beyond imagine — it would be worse than the Ukraine crisis on global market supply chains.
6) I want folks to pay attention to also the BOOSTER rates, since you need boosters in order to fully protect against #BA2 (or BA1 old #Omicron). China has just under 40% boosted, which while more than HK’s 28%, far lags many other EU countries. And again, a lot of weaker shots.
7) This is why building 6000-bed isolation hospitals in just 6 days is an immediate priority for China. It knows what is coming. China last did this only in Wuhan in Jan 2020 because they know it is that bad and serious again.
⚠️BA2 DOUBLES IN ONE WEEK—New @CDCgov data shows that #BA2 has now ~doubled to 23.1% from just 11.6% last week (revised 13%). This is a horrendous acceleration from just 7% prior. England surge started when BA2 hit ~half. April increase likely. #GetBoostedcovid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
2) BA2 is surging at an exponential rate. Look at the same surge in #BA2 on a log scale — the green line clearly shows the log-linear steep climb. This is definitely an ominous trend.
3) Last week, for March 5th, CDC estimated 11.6%. But for the same week, CDC now admits they grossly underestimated the same week — CDC now revised that up to 13.7%… hence CDC has been underestimating BA2 by a bit. The current 23% could be too low too.
2) And while officials say they do have enough vaccine doses available for immunocompromised people to get a fourth dose, if the rest of the population ends up needing an additional dose, they may not have the funds needed to meet the nation's needs.
3) The gap in funding would be particularly severe if a vaccine-evading variant comes along and a new formulation is needed. 👀
BREAKING—a bill to make Daylight Savings permanent just passed the US Senate by **Unanimous Consent** (S.623: Sunshine Protection Act, as amended to make Daylight Saving Time permanent). It only needs to now pass the House before going to Biden’s desk!
YES— it happened—the US Senate does something right today… permanent DST for the (hopeful) win!
To be clear— we are currently in “Daylight saving time” between mid March and November. So it would make our current time permanent. No more clock switching if it passes the House. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daylight_…
⚠️Kids hospitalizations ⬆️ 58%—I don’t know who needs to hear this—but endangering kids and letting 375 children 0-5 years hospitalized in last 7 days in England 🏴 is total insanity. 58% spike in 1 week! That’s #BA2 folks. #CovidIsNotOver
3) Europe already had a surge of old #Omicron… for those who think they are fully protected from #BA2 need to think again… and look how fast #BA2 driven when is moving.
📈SEWER SIGNALS—there is a sharp reversal in wastewater #SARSCoV2–many now rising across the US / plateauing and no longer falling, says CDC data. This parallels surge in Europe, just a few weeks behind. A #BA2 wave is coming—how soon/big is the question🧵 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2) it doesn’t require a rocket scientist to see there is a huge reversal in wastewater #SARSCoV2 showing more coronavirus surge— this progression will likely continue as #BA2 rises further in prevalence.
3) we already saw hints of it last week in pockets like Palo Alto and others. But this is becoming much more common in more pockets around the country.
NEW—South Korea 🇰🇷 reports surging ⬆️ #BA2 subvariant now 31% of all cases as of last week. SK now has surpassed Hong Kong’s incidence peak, with hospitalizations & deaths also rising. 45% of all imported cases are #BA2 as well. 🇰🇷 is in trouble soon too. kdca.go.kr/contents.es?mi…
2) Yes, deaths in South Korea 🇰🇷 rising too albeit much much lower than Hong Kong.
3) reason is that South Korea is heavily vaccinated and heavily boosted—among the highest in the world. But that still doesn’t prevent hospitalizations and mortality rise because #Ba2 that efficient in finding unvaccinated and undervaccinated.