Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️BA2 DOUBLES IN ONE WEEK—New @CDCgov data shows that #BA2 has now ~doubled to 23.1% from just 11.6% last week (revised 13%). This is a horrendous acceleration from just 7% prior. England surge started when BA2 hit ~half. April increase likely. #GetBoosted covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

2) BA2 is surging at an exponential rate. Look at the same surge in #BA2 on a log scale — the green line clearly shows the log-linear steep climb. This is definitely an ominous trend.

Figure by @DrWilliamKu using CDC data.

3) Last week, for March 5th, CDC estimated 11.6%. But for the same week, CDC now admits they grossly underestimated the same week — CDC now revised that up to 13.7%… hence CDC has been underestimating BA2 by a bit. The current 23% could be too low too.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1501232919683104776

4) it’s even higher in New York / NJ / PR / VI region — with an astounding 39% #BA2 already! New England region close behind at 38.6% as well. These make sense — the NE is always traditionally seeded from Europe surge earlier than the rest of the country, just like in 2020.

5) you know that surge in Hong Kong and China? Driven by #BA2. Hong Kong per capita mortality is triple the next highest mortality country right now and approaching NYC 2020 levels of deaths sadly.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1498357688199176195

6) England’s #Ba2 spike + dropping mitigations has catapulted it into both a case surge and hospitalization surge starting last week — incredibly fast increase in both. The data is even more worse now.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1501532919894061057

7) Here is how it started in February— low single digits. We didn’t act. We just let mitigations go. And waste water now showing signals that national trend reversing, and a surge coming soon.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1501241262317441032

8) Wastewater #SARSCoV2 trend is unmistakable that the tide has turned and there will be more spikes.

9) I’m very grateful for wastewater coronavirus data telling us what is going on. The sewage data does not lie. It doesn’t get tired or get lazy or decide to ignore the signals. Whether we act on it is purely our own willpower & willingness to protect our kids and vulnerable.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1503469939797151753

10) with the new #BA2 data, it’s clear it has an 80% growth advantage versus BA1 old Omicron. An uptick in cases come sooner by even late March if this pace increases. But hopefully no earlier. But definitely by early to mid April at this pace.

https://twitter.com/jpweiland/status/1503894519036755972

11) Meanwhile, the US govt has officially run out of pandemic emergency funds!! We barely have enough for bare minimum things now. And those amazing wonder treatments? We barely have a quarter of what we ordered.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1503837588754472960

12) Also reminder, #BA2 has 25-30% higher secondary attack rate than old Omicron #BA1 for second degree infections in a cluster.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1501246502622175234

13) Just stare at this graph on infection attack rates of #BA2 (red) versus old BA1 (blue) or Delta variant (purple). The new #Ba2 absolutely deserves its own Greek letter variant of concern. But @WHO so far is refusing to reclassify it as a new VOC.

It’s time @mvankerkhove. 🙏

14) Next wave already started in Europe. #BA2 is worse than BA1 already in many EU countries. Removing protections will cause deaths, sickness, disabilities of many more people. And no, not only “vulnerable” are at risk. Anyone who says BA2 won’t cause a surge are in delusion.