Share this page!

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Twitter logo
Mar 14 • 16 tweets • 9 min read
📈SEWER SIGNALS—there is a sharp reversal in wastewater #SARSCoV2–many now rising across the US / plateauing and no longer falling, says CDC data. This parallels surge in Europe, just a few weeks behind. A #BA2 wave is coming—how soon/big is the question🧵 bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
2) it doesn’t require a rocket scientist to see there is a huge reversal in wastewater #SARSCoV2 showing more coronavirus surge— this progression will likely continue as #BA2 rises further in prevalence. Image
3) we already saw hints of it last week in pockets like Palo Alto and others. But this is becoming much more common in more pockets around the country.
4) As reminder, the #BA2 subvariant is now over 11.6% but quickly rising, and over 24% in New England. Also this data is over a week old. Likely even higher.
5) how much faster is #BA2? It has a 80-90% growth advantage per week versus BA1. This is why #BA2 is surging worldwide. BA2 is growing slowly in US because we recently survived a big BA1 wave but this is only a temporary barrier against growth. Waning will have effects too.
6) Why is it spreading? For some mutation related reason #Ba2 has higher attack rates than BA1. 25% higher secondary attack rate per case in households, and 30% higher among non households.
7) #BA2 data (red) from Denmark also shows MUCH MICH higher secondary attack rates over time than both #BA1 (old Omicron) and Delta variants. Honestly, BA2 needs to get its own Greek letter @WHO!! Don’t just call it a subtype of Omicron—it is just too different from BA1! Image
8) “But but but… it’s mild like the flu” some say…. Not quite, only if you’re *recently* boosted. Get at least that 3rd shot. With BA2, 2 shots just isn’t enough protection. 75% lower risk if 2 shots versus 95% lower risk of hospitalization boosted is a difference of 5x lower!!
9) ok, epidemiologist translation of where the 5x lower comes… if 1000 people, and there is 75% lower risk of hospitalization then 250 of 1000 will get hospitalized. If 95% lower, then only 50 hospitalized. 250 is 5x more than 50. But reality is 4x diff for some high risk folks. Image
10) As for #BA2’s infectiousness and evasiveness… apparently Shenzhen health officials made a surprising statement that BA2 seems to have a “high degree of concealment”. I’ve never seen such a descriptor before—unclear what it means yet but we should definitely be precautious!
11) Next wave already started in Europe. #BA2 is worse than BA1 already in many EU countries. Removing protections will cause deaths, sickness, disabilities of many more people. And no, not only “vulnerable” are at risk. Anyone who says BA2 won’t cause a surge are in delusion. Image
12) The UK 🇬🇧 also got hit hard by Omicron over December and January… they thought COVID was over… they thought wrong… not only cases surging in all age groups across all regions, but hospitalizations surging too. Especially in young kids!! 👇
13) I’m gonna go on a limb and says masks in schools kinda sorta maybe REALLY good idea right now to help protect kids and teachers from #COVID19 — 72% lower risk of infection for mandatory school masks versus partial.

And keep in mind, kids boosters not here yet—May or June.
14) Follow these things to protect your family:

Boosters (get 3 shots—J&J folks too)
N95 masks
Ditch plexiglass theater
HEPA filters for schools & work
Corsi filter boxes 📦
Upper room UV for large conference rooms
Testing
Isolate cases + 2x testing to exit
Open the window 🪟
15) For those who cite Denmark (the very first #BA2 epicenter in Europe)… here is what no mitigation + BA2 does… this is DEATHS, not cases.
16) For folks who need an explainer of what #BA2 subvariant is… watch this 👇

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Eric Feigl-Ding

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 15
HORRIFYING—White House warns that US has run out of money for:

📌test, treat & vaccinate uninsured
📌Monoclonal antibody drugs cut 30%
📌Paxlovid (that reduces severe COVID risk by 90%) now cut—only 20 mil available.

Congress dropped the ball on funding!npr.org/2022/03/15/108…
2) And while officials say they do have enough vaccine doses available for immunocompromised people to get a fourth dose, if the rest of the population ends up needing an additional dose, they may not have the funds needed to meet the nation's needs.
3) The gap in funding would be particularly severe if a vaccine-evading variant comes along and a new formulation is needed. 👀

Ummmm… FFS!!!
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 15
BREAKING—a bill to make Daylight Savings permanent just passed the US Senate by **Unanimous Consent** (S.623: Sunshine Protection Act, as amended to make Daylight Saving Time permanent). It only needs to now pass the House before going to Biden’s desk!
YES— it happened—the US Senate does something right today… permanent DST for the (hopeful) win!
To be clear— we are currently in “Daylight saving time” between mid March and November. So it would make our current time permanent. No more clock switching if it passes the House. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daylight_…
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 14
⚠️Kids hospitalizations ⬆️ 58%—I don’t know who needs to hear this—but endangering kids and letting 375 children 0-5 years hospitalized in last 7 days in England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 is total insanity. 58% spike in 1 week! That’s #BA2 folks. #CovidIsNotOver

HT @Antonio_Caramia Image
2) US is also surging very soon. Very soon.
3) Europe already had a surge of old #Omicron… for those who think they are fully protected from #BA2 need to think again… and look how fast #BA2 driven when is moving. Image
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 14
Let this sink in—about half of elderly age 80+ in China are not fully vaccinated. And those who are are vaccinated with mostly SinoVac or Sinopharm—2 of the weaker protection vaccines. Half unvaccinated is gut punching bad—and bodes badly for the world if 🇨🇳 loses control. Image
2) And of the vaccinations in Hong Kong right now, most in the older generation are SinoVac and Sinopharm (non-mRNA) as well. Compare this to New Zealand or Singapore with very few Sino* vaccines. Image
3) while elderly 80+ are small, they have an outsized in place on total #COVID19 deaths in Hong Kong. The same problem will happen in China if it loses control in its population. Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 14
NEW—South Korea 🇰🇷 reports surging ⬆️ #BA2 subvariant now 31% of all cases as of last week. SK now has surpassed Hong Kong’s incidence peak, with hospitalizations & deaths also rising. 45% of all imported cases are #BA2 as well. 🇰🇷 is in trouble soon too. kdca.go.kr/contents.es?mi… ImageImage
2) Yes, deaths in South Korea 🇰🇷 rising too albeit much much lower than Hong Kong.

Figure by @DrWilliamKu Image
3) reason is that South Korea is heavily vaccinated and heavily boosted—among the highest in the world. But that still doesn’t prevent hospitalizations and mortality rise because #Ba2 that efficient in finding unvaccinated and undervaccinated. Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 14
BREAKING—Lockdown just imposed for entire Jilin province, population 24 million. Jilin Province just reported 895 locally transmitted #COVID19 cases, & 131 asymptomatic carriers on Sunday, authorities announced Monday. Mayor of Jilin city has been fired.🧵
xinhuanet.com/english/202203… Image
2) This follows Shenzhen’s urgent lockdown yesterday. Shenzhen is the “Silicon Valley” tech and industrial epicenter of China. This likely has global implications if longer than a few days. All production is ceased during this time.
3) How serious is China about what is happening in Jilin? It has begun building a 6000-bed hospital isolation center… with work crews working 24 hours around the clock— scheduled completion is in 6 days from groundbreaking. Live camera of construction: weibo.com/l/wblive/m/sho… Image
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @DrEricDing has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @DrEricDing!

Read all threads by @DrEricDing

:(