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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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Mar 14 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
BREAKING—Lockdown just imposed for entire Jilin province, population 24 million. Jilin Province just reported 895 locally transmitted #COVID19 cases, & 131 asymptomatic carriers on Sunday, authorities announced Monday. Mayor of Jilin city has been fired.🧵
xinhuanet.com/english/202203…
2) This follows Shenzhen’s urgent lockdown yesterday. Shenzhen is the “Silicon Valley” tech and industrial epicenter of China. This likely has global implications if longer than a few days. All production is ceased during this time.
3) How serious is China about what is happening in Jilin? It has begun building a 6000-bed hospital isolation center… with work crews working 24 hours around the clock— scheduled completion is in 6 days from groundbreaking. Live camera of construction: weibo.com/l/wblive/m/sho…
4) Why is China so concerned suddenly about Jilin Province? Because it is worried about #BA2 and how aggressive it is. Notably, Shenzhen authorities interestingly said BA2’s “concealment is very high” — I’ve NEVER heard of that declaration before. But it must be for a reason. 🤔
5) all this is very reminiscent of Jan 2020 in Wuhan. While we now have vaccines, I think China’s SinoVac and Sinopharm and CanSino vaccines are somewhat weaker than mRNA ones, and their booster coverage is not high. BA2 is also much worse. China needs to avoid a larger crisis👇
6) Hong Kong and Shenzhen are adjacent cities separated by an internal border check. But there are enormous flows of people between the regions. And when one has an epic outbreak, almost inevitably the other is at risk… this is why we worry so much that likely Shenzhen is next.
7) Lockdowns in China are because they are desperate for control of the situation. There are too many vulnerable inside of mainland China if they lose the containment battle against #BA2.
8) end of the day, China is in dire trouble with #BA2 because it is neither basic vaccinated enough nor boosted enough. And that is why I have my sinking feeling in my stomach. It’s not just for China but it’s for China’s impact on the world
9) because of COVID surging out of control, Chinese company stocks are being battered today -- worst day in HK market history since 2008-2009 financial crisis!

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 16
⚠️BA2 DOUBLES IN ONE WEEK—New @CDCgov data shows that #BA2 has now ~doubled to 23.1% from just 11.6% last week (revised 13%). This is a horrendous acceleration from just 7% prior. England surge started when BA2 hit ~half. April increase likely. #GetBoosted covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… Image
2) BA2 is surging at an exponential rate. Look at the same surge in #BA2 on a log scale — the green line clearly shows the log-linear steep climb. This is definitely an ominous trend.

Figure by @DrWilliamKu using CDC data. Image
3) Last week, for March 5th, CDC estimated 11.6%. But for the same week, CDC now admits they grossly underestimated the same week — CDC now revised that up to 13.7%… hence CDC has been underestimating BA2 by a bit. The current 23% could be too low too.
Read 14 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 15
HORRIFYING—White House warns that US has run out of money for:

📌test, treat & vaccinate uninsured
📌Monoclonal antibody drugs cut 30%
📌Paxlovid (that reduces severe COVID risk by 90%) now cut—only 20 mil available.

Congress dropped the ball on funding!npr.org/2022/03/15/108…
2) And while officials say they do have enough vaccine doses available for immunocompromised people to get a fourth dose, if the rest of the population ends up needing an additional dose, they may not have the funds needed to meet the nation's needs.
3) The gap in funding would be particularly severe if a vaccine-evading variant comes along and a new formulation is needed. 👀

Ummmm… FFS!!!
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 15
BREAKING—a bill to make Daylight Savings permanent just passed the US Senate by **Unanimous Consent** (S.623: Sunshine Protection Act, as amended to make Daylight Saving Time permanent). It only needs to now pass the House before going to Biden’s desk!
YES— it happened—the US Senate does something right today… permanent DST for the (hopeful) win!
To be clear— we are currently in “Daylight saving time” between mid March and November. So it would make our current time permanent. No more clock switching if it passes the House. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daylight_…
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 14
⚠️Kids hospitalizations ⬆️ 58%—I don’t know who needs to hear this—but endangering kids and letting 375 children 0-5 years hospitalized in last 7 days in England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 is total insanity. 58% spike in 1 week! That’s #BA2 folks. #CovidIsNotOver

HT @Antonio_Caramia Image
2) US is also surging very soon. Very soon.
3) Europe already had a surge of old #Omicron… for those who think they are fully protected from #BA2 need to think again… and look how fast #BA2 driven when is moving. Image
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 14
📈SEWER SIGNALS—there is a sharp reversal in wastewater #SARSCoV2–many now rising across the US / plateauing and no longer falling, says CDC data. This parallels surge in Europe, just a few weeks behind. A #BA2 wave is coming—how soon/big is the question🧵 bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
2) it doesn’t require a rocket scientist to see there is a huge reversal in wastewater #SARSCoV2 showing more coronavirus surge— this progression will likely continue as #BA2 rises further in prevalence. Image
3) we already saw hints of it last week in pockets like Palo Alto and others. But this is becoming much more common in more pockets around the country.
Read 16 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 14
Let this sink in—about half of elderly age 80+ in China are not fully vaccinated. And those who are are vaccinated with mostly SinoVac or Sinopharm—2 of the weaker protection vaccines. Half unvaccinated is gut punching bad—and bodes badly for the world if 🇨🇳 loses control. Image
2) And of the vaccinations in Hong Kong right now, most in the older generation are SinoVac and Sinopharm (non-mRNA) as well. Compare this to New Zealand or Singapore with very few Sino* vaccines. Image
3) while elderly 80+ are small, they have an outsized in place on total #COVID19 deaths in Hong Kong. The same problem will happen in China if it loses control in its population. Image
Read 8 tweets

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