Thread by @SafetyinNumbrz

AB's 6th wave officially begins!! Curiously, AB Health has not updated their transmission calculations to reflect that on time (3/15).

Luckily, we can estimate it ourselves to prove that, YES, AB begins yet another preventable wave of illness & death. 🧵

alberta.ca/covid-19-alber…

Cases counted "active" for 14 days if not hospitalized, or 10 days after discharge/follow-up. Excepting long hospitalizations > 4 days (a small % of all cases), new cases (in past 7 days) can be viewed as a percentage of active cases. When new cases are ~50% active cases, Rt=1.

When new cases> 1/2 active cases, exponential growth is occurring. When new cases < 1/2 active cases, Rt < 1 and cases are receding.

Ex. Calgary zone: 1211 new cases of 2172 active. (55%)
That means 961 cases from 8-14 days ago, & 1211 new cases this week. 1211/961 = 1.26

It's an estimate for a few reasons. It assumes ppl who were infected last week then infected ppl this week. If ppl are contagious longer than a wk, they might not still be in the "active cases". It counts wk by wk, not day/day.

It also assumes even testing + good surveillance.

But without a doubt this is a substantial growth pattern beginning. As usual, it is starting in the cities, where >70% of AB lives.

All AB: 52% -> est Rt 1.08

Calgary: 55% -> est Rt = 1.26
Edmonton: 52% -> est Rt = 1.08
Central: 49% -> .97
North: 48% -> .93
South: 47% -> .90

Outside the main cities, cases are still going down week over week. But less so than before, where Rt was 0.88 in the "Rest of Alberta". Cases are flattening out there, but they will get their uptick very soon.

Central: 49% -> .97
North: 48% -> .93
South: 47% -> .90

This is substantiated by a bunch of other indicators.

Test positivity rate was insanely high from last wave - WHO/CDC said 5% test+ indicates of adequate testing. AB's barely dropped below 20% & is starting to rise.

Rising %+ w/ testing steady = increased transmission

There's more. Testing in AB is so restricted as to ignore almost everyone outside hospital. (And even some IN hospitals.)

Luckily, wastewater testing remains accurate for monitored areas. As a leading indicator, it predicts case growth earlier than PCR testing.

It's rising too.

Wastewater tests deserve special mention because they more accurately represent true infection rates in a given place over time, even if testing changes. Look how much higher it was for wave 5!

Now see how high it is today, the START of wave 6. This bodes ill. Literally.

And we STILL have more acute care patients in hospital than any wave before Omicron. (Still think Omicron is "mild"? Think again. And don't believe those who tell you wave 6 will be mild too.)

Plus, ICU care cases - a LAGGING indicator which shows up weeks after infection - has already flattened out. Not because ppl are a lot less sick.

Because so many are dying.

(Keep in mind AB revises hosp/ICU/death counts higher days later, so this wk's data are undercounted.)

Those flattened cases in rural areas and ICU numbers - which lag behind new cases and urban numbers remind me of something we've seen before... they are exactly what happens just before a new painful wave.

https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1502313982509473800?s=20&t=8aLCqpw3YYamPsKJnjWrHg

Meanwhile, the even-more-transmissible-than-ever Omicron BA.2 subvariant gains hold in Alberta. Over the past ~3 weeks, it went from 10% of cases to 22% to over 30%.

Previous Omicron infections won't provide strong immunity for it, and the vaccine isn't great protection either.

BA.2 is already wreaking havoc in Europe - routinely a little ahead of what happens in Canada. Even if we had NO other data suggesting things are about to get worse here, this should give any reasonable person pause.

https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1503235647246503939?s=20&t=8aLCqpw3YYamPsKJnjWrHg

But in truth, we could predict wave 6 beginning right about now in Alberta even if there were no especially-icky variants running around...

Because AB has eliminated almost all its protections.

They are going so far as to make it ILLEGAL to enact protections locally.

Almost no testing for most people, which means poor surveillance and prevents contact tracing or preventative isolation. (Nearly) No masking. No req for adequate ventilation to prevent transmission. No vaccine rules. No capacity limits. We'll have + waves.

https://twitter.com/MerlinofCanada/status/1503568454032392193?s=20&t=8aLCqpw3YYamPsKJnjWrHg

There's more reason to protest these changes, even if you are certain that *this* time, it won't overwhelm hospitals, won't cause deaths, really will be mild. "6th time's the charm, eh?"

It wasn't mild before.

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1503435165657403400?s=20&t=8aLCqpw3YYamPsKJnjWrHg

https://twitter.com/beansprouts_mom/status/1503597870372380675?s=20&t=8aLCqpw3YYamPsKJnjWrHg

And up to 1/3 of cases (even mild ones) end up with long-term symptoms for months.

Plus you are more likely to later have a heart attack, or diabetes, or brain damage, even if you don't notice "Long-COVID" symptoms, & your acute illness was mild.

https://twitter.com/SabiVM/status/1503037242939482112?s=20&t=8aLCqpw3YYamPsKJnjWrHg

Worst part? COVID attacks you immune system, kinda like HIV. It kills T cells, meaning you get weaker long-term with every subsequent infection. And makes you more vulnerable to other illnesses.

https://twitter.com/SmartandSassy11/status/1503209525469458436?s=20&t=ZqpkHrTUNHo9tfpCcLByVw

What can you do about it?

* Keep up with legit COVID science (not politics)
* Get vaccinated AND BOOSTED
* Wear respirator 100% TIME indoors in public
* Clean your air, and ensure employers do too
* Stay home when sick
* Avoid crowds
* Oppose removing protections

Remember that #COVIDisAirborne

It lingers in the air, & can infect ppl after sick person leaves. It can get around gaps in masks & plastic barriers. It can go through vents/hallways & infect you alone in a room - but safer w/ distance + open windows.

https://twitter.com/DonaldVinh/status/1503422916616241152?s=20&t=ZqpkHrTUNHo9tfpCcLByVw

"Low" cases now looking like they grow slowly at first. That's how exponential growth works. It's an illusion. We must act BEFORE cases skyrocket if we want a chance at a normal life. Pretending it's over isn't going to work, and saying otherwise is not rational.

Please don't permit our wish for the life we used to have doom us to even worse waves bc we don't want to deal w/ reality.

Masks reduce lockdowns.
Vaccines reduce sick days.
Ventilation reduces inequity for vulnerable.
Avoiding crowds reduces full hospitals.

We must do better.