Thread by @SafetyinNumbrz

AB's Wave 6 is still Omicron & you can still get it. 🧵

Wave 5 was Omicron BA.1/1.1. This is BA.2
Not the same.

It's nearly most transmissible diseases ever w/ R0 ~ 12! (Measles is ~14.)

There are documented proven reinfections w/ BA.2 after BA.1.
afr.com/policy/health-…

#COVIDisAirborne this level of transmissibility will rip through communities and increase to very, very high prevalence. Without major changes in policy/behavior, it could eclipse Wave 5 peak.

Previous infection w/ BA.1 may provide some measure of protection, but not reliably.

2-dose vaccines are better than nothing, but nowhere near adequate protection. Booster protected ~70% for BA.1, and should hopefully be in the same ballpark for BA.2.

(But protection levels from vax and previous infection wane over time. So keep that in mind.)

The "Stealth" variant:

Regular PCR tests copy genetic material and compare it to known samples to see if a person has COVID.

But not the WHOLE genome, just a few parts.

In BA.1, 2 parts matched, but one didn't so reg PCR showed C+ & if BA.1 variant. (All 3 match = C+ not BA.1)

BA.2 is different, because all the PCR parts match again, like many other variants.

So reg PCR will still work normally. It will be able to tell if you have COVID in similar way as always.

The "stealth" is that slower, more $$ sequencing will be needed to confirm BA.2.

My Stealth note: It's so contagious that it's likely that a lower "dose" of virus is needed to infect others. (This was true w/ BA.1, likely true now.)

If Lower dose -> infection, COVID tests that rely on threshold amounts may not always show C+ even when contagious. (False neg)

"Is it mild?"

Risk = Virulence X Chance of Infection

AB ~150% HOSPITALIZATIONS in "mild" wave 5 over other peaks. Kids were highly impacted.

BA.2 is more 1.4X more transmissible, but maybe similarly virulent.

So risk is HIGHER than ever if spread continues as it's going.

Only BA.2 good news: treatments seem to still work, maybe at higher doses.

Deaths continue to mount from wave 5 - they aren't even done yet. It's already nearly equal Delta wave, even w/ vax & previous infection immune protection + treatment drugs.

alberta.ca/stats/covid-19…

You can only die once. Each wave is like an elimination round in a tournament. (Survivor Bias)

Frail ppl died 1st, Dec 2020. Less-frail ppl survived.

Less-frail ppl died in wave 4. Not-frail ppl suvived.

Not-frail ppl died in wave 5... Leaving us.

New deaths for healthier ppl

There's a little more nuance; babies born, new cancers etc. But you get the basic idea.

Evidence shows previous infections can make ppl more susceptible & add new comorbidities, so you may not be as strong as before COVID began. (Plus pandemic generally bad for health.)

Meaning a slightly smaller wave of deaths, if that's what we get from wave 6 is NOT a win.

It's a massive, massive failure, with each person at nearly equal risk of death or higher than the previous wave.

People focus on the acute illness. For many healthy people, vaxxed + boosted, the acute illness is not devastating. So people think it's ok.

They gloss over Long-COVID as unlikely, only for frail ppl, not really that bad, or only for hospitalized ppl.

This is not true. Long-COVID (aka PASC) lasting 3+ months happens at very high rates (~70+%) for those hospitalized with COVID.

But it affects mild cases, young people, healthy people, asymptomatic cases, and recovered cases months later ~30% all cases.

https://twitter.com/SabiVM/status/1503037242939482112?s=20&t=sm9YQlJcvTElS9G3WyNBZg

PASC is no joke. Healthy ppl after recovering from mild COVID have greater risk of new onset Diabetes. Dementia. Heart Attack. Stroke. Brain damage. Smaller Brains. ~30% of same ppl have Extreme fatigue. Trouble breathing. Inability to exercise. Headaches. Nausea. For MONTHS.

Many of these people are unable to work. Some already sick for years, with long-term disabilities.

AHS estimated over 68,000 Albertans had Long-COVID in early Jan. at the very beginning of wave 5, before the hospital numbers really started climbing.
edmonton.ctvnews.ca/covid-19-long-…

But "it's inevitable" and "endemic".

Endemic doesn't mean "minor" or "impossible to control". It means it will keep coming back. Malaria (a global kid killer) was endemic in the US til 1950s. Then PH took appropriate steps to control it, and it isn't common there at all anymore.

Deciding if we should just let COVID run unimpeded through society requires 2 questions:

1. Is it worth stopping? (If it were truly benign, no. COVID is not benign. It killed many more ppl than malaria {~630K} in 2021.)

2. Is it possible to control? (Yes, even w/ no lockdowns!)

What we need most are AIRBORNE PRECAUTIONS. Don't wear cloth masks, wear proper respirators 100% of time indoors in public. Don't eat/drink indoors in public if at all possible. You can be infected in moments, and high probability in minutes. Eat outside.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1408078811644768258?s=20&t=sm9YQlJcvTElS9G3WyNBZg

Check out this spectacular thread from one of the foremost aerosol scientists informing COVID policy. Practical things you can do that actually work to reduce your risk of airborne viruses.

https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1463200650494316550?s=20&t=sm9YQlJcvTElS9G3WyNBZg

You should also use this terrific tool for tracking your risk of infection in your location, with your own details. (Note as of 3-16 transmission risk was not updated for BA.2, so your risk will be at least 1.4X greater until they change the math inputs.)

microcovid.org

Wave 6 is going to really hurt unless policy-makers reverse their debunked-outdated-non-scientific droplet dogma positions, test, report and isolate at peak levels, & institute community protections like sick days, distancing, smaller groups, clean air & respirators.

For personal safety, get fully vaxxed AND BOOSTED right away if you haven't already. You need 2 weeks to get the benefit, and time is against you.

Wear a respirator. (N95+) Not cloth. If you have a surgical mask, use a brace. Insist others do the same. fixthemask.com

Limit your contacts. Get delivery or curbside pickup when you can. Or shop at outdoor markets.

Get a few rapid tests if you can and don't have any. Demand is likely to rise very soon. (If PCR is hard to access, C+ rapid tests can help you access treatments early enough to work.)

It's awful that this keeps happening, but til we make air quality and PH policies better:

This, de facto, is our new normal. 😳 We can't wish or deny our way out of it.

Let's work together for a BETTER NEW NORMAL that doesn't marginalize high-risk ppl.

Good luck & good health.