AB has abandoned almost all COVID protections already, and decided to go even further and reduce reporting and transparency, with updates only 1/wk. The justification?
It's time. Our two years is up. We're basically safe enough now.
"We need to be able to hold two realities at the same time – one is that COVID is still a threat to take seriously and the other is that the COVID population risk has been reduced and we can move to seeing COVID as one risk among many."alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…
"COVID population risk has been reduced"
Reduced compared to what precisely? Certainly the population risk is not lower than the risk at earlier times in the pandemic here.
Shall we compare our performance in Wave 5 to previous waves to determine population risk?
Even almost the lowest testing rates in Canada, restricted to a small fraction of previous capacity. Cases counts were extremely high.
Wastewater testing shows us a more proportional representation of the HUGE increase in risk this winter.
Or perhaps we are safe now because we stopped dying?
No, that's not correct. Waves 4/5 were smaller than Wave 2, but they came a lot faster in succession. Along with survivor bias, there's no way to say we aren't dying much anymore.
And no one can keep a straight face and suggest it is because we are having severe COVID causing hospitalizations less as a population. ICU admissions were a bit lower than other peaks, but not insignificant. And we couldn't even provide normal standards of care due to surges.
It's not because we have good surveillance. Our test positivity is STILL higher than previous peaks! @jkenney advises AB to pay for private COVID testing if they find it a problem that almost all AB cannot access PH PCR testing. Private tests are not reported either.
It isn't that our healthcare workers are safer.
We had a 20% increase in *total* reported HCW COVID deaths in the past 3 weeks. From wave 5. (Per AH website Feb 24/25 and Mar 16/17)
We aren't safer because we now have good protective policies based upon proven transmission modes - primarily #AIRBORNE AEROSOLS!
Because AB still uses droplet dogma. And fomites. And hygiene theater.
More transmissible than Omicron BA.1 (Wave 5) by 40%. And numerous ppl infected with BA.1 were reinfected with BA.2.
So Herd Immunity cannot be the reason for our supposed safety now, because it clearly doesn't work well enough to suppress community transmission effectively.
To recap: worse variants, more transmissible, not recovered from Wave 5, inadequate surveillance, lack of testing, poor environmental controls, unclean air, HCWs dying, no Herd Immunity, Vax waning, & less transparency.
@CMOH_Alberta How precisely, are we safer as a population?
#COVIDisAirborne this level of transmissibility will rip through communities and increase to very, very high prevalence. Without major changes in policy/behavior, it could eclipse Wave 5 peak.
Previous infection w/ BA.1 may provide some measure of protection, but not reliably.
2-dose vaccines are better than nothing, but nowhere near adequate protection. Booster protected ~70% for BA.1, and should hopefully be in the same ballpark for BA.2.
(But protection levels from vax and previous infection wane over time. So keep that in mind.)
Cases counted "active" for 14 days if not hospitalized, or 10 days after discharge/follow-up. Excepting long hospitalizations > 4 days (a small % of all cases), new cases (in past 7 days) can be viewed as a percentage of active cases. When new cases are ~50% active cases, Rt=1.
When new cases> 1/2 active cases, exponential growth is occurring. When new cases < 1/2 active cases, Rt < 1 and cases are receding.
Ex. Calgary zone: 1211 new cases of 2172 active. (55%)
That means 961 cases from 8-14 days ago, & 1211 new cases this week. 1211/961 = 1.26
CORRECTED: COVID is NOT MILD for KIDS. Early in the pandemic, kids seemed safer. Not now. Kid COVID Death Rate > Diabetes, 🫁Flu,🔥Fire, Falls,🏊♂️Drowning,☠️Poison,🫀Heart Disease &😰CANCER. It rivals🚗Car &🔫Gun Deaths! You'd use lifevests & kidproof locks, so wear a😷respirator.
Yesterday, I released an incorrect version. I apologize and retract it. Pls replace it w/ this new version. I accidentally included age 18-19 non-COVID deaths before. Now, it is only kids under 18. I'm truly sorry, and hope you will still accept the corrected version. 🙏
Source data is from the US only, and highest COVID death rate (2022) is based upon the same rate all year as it was Jan 1 - Feb 6. Likely (hopefully), this will drop as wave troughs are added to 2022 totals, but nastier variants or reduced protections could keep kid deaths high.
Albertans, did you know that your risk of catching COVID in the *next month* is likely higher than it was for the entire Delta wave? New cases are projected to infect over 3/4 of a million more people by late Feb! Don't lower your shields yet. #ShieldsUp
To be clear, this is not a projection of confirmed cases, faced restricted testing. Some of these cases may be asymptomatic & may not be aware of their condition. Some may end up with Long-COVID after asymptomatic infection. Chart is to end of Jan, 3 mill, in a pop of 4.4 mill.
It is not safe to reopen with transmission so high, hospitals overwhelmed and surveillance all but cancelled. Wear the best mask you can, delay optional interactions if possible a few more weeks. Insist and clean, safe air.
It's upsetting to learn that BC hospitals (AB too) are bunking C+ patients in with C- patients, guaranteeing more hospital outbreaks will infect people already sick enough to be in hospital for other reasons. That's bad. But it misses a key problem. 🧵 cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
The problem is that not all patients are even tested, and those that are tested may have false negatives. People are being treated in hallways & kept in waiting rooms... with a highly transmissible airborne virus, this means that actual C+ cases go unconfirmed & not isolated.
Many major hospitals have a small # of negative-air-pressure isolation suites. These are good at protecting everyone else. Your average ward bed does not come close. Modern hospitals usually aim for better-than-avg air exchange/filtration, but real world efficiency varies.