Thread by @SafetyinNumbrz

AB has abandoned almost all COVID protections already, and decided to go even further and reduce reporting and transparency, with updates only 1/wk. The justification?

It's time. Our two years is up. We're basically safe enough now.

@CMOH_Alberta Mar 8

"We need to be able to hold two realities at the same time – one is that COVID is still a threat to take seriously and the other is that the COVID population risk has been reduced and we can move to seeing COVID as one risk among many."alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…

"COVID population risk has been reduced"

Reduced compared to what precisely? Certainly the population risk is not lower than the risk at earlier times in the pandemic here.

Shall we compare our performance in Wave 5 to previous waves to determine population risk?

Even almost the lowest testing rates in Canada, restricted to a small fraction of previous capacity. Cases counts were extremely high.

Wastewater testing shows us a more proportional representation of the HUGE increase in risk this winter.

Or perhaps we are safe now because we stopped dying?

No, that's not correct. Waves 4/5 were smaller than Wave 2, but they came a lot faster in succession. Along with survivor bias, there's no way to say we aren't dying much anymore.

And no one can keep a straight face and suggest it is because we are having severe COVID causing hospitalizations less as a population. ICU admissions were a bit lower than other peaks, but not insignificant. And we couldn't even provide normal standards of care due to surges.

It's not because we have good surveillance. Our test positivity is STILL higher than previous peaks! @jkenney advises AB to pay for private COVID testing if they find it a problem that almost all AB cannot access PH PCR testing. Private tests are not reported either.

It isn't that our healthcare workers are safer.

We had a 20% increase in *total* reported HCW COVID deaths in the past 3 weeks. From wave 5. (Per AH website Feb 24/25 and Mar 16/17)

We aren't safer because we now have good protective policies based upon proven transmission modes - primarily #AIRBORNE AEROSOLS!

Because AB still uses droplet dogma. And fomites. And hygiene theater.

https://twitter.com/SafetyinNumbrz/status/1504453237381890055?s=20&t=sm9YQlJcvTElS9G3WyNBZg

And it isn't because new waves won't be coming hard and fast. Wave 6 is ALREADY BEGINNING.

Proof that Wave 6 Begins:

https://twitter.com/SafetyinNumbrz/status/1503681597391839235?s=20&t=sm9YQlJcvTElS9G3WyNBZg

Nor is wave 6 going to be better than previous waves, ESPECIALLY with no masking, hardly any testing, and removal of nearly all protections.

That would only work if BA.2 were magically much safer. It is not. It could well be worse for us than BA.1

https://twitter.com/SafetyinNumbrz/status/1504639855392792577?s=20&t=sm9YQlJcvTElS9G3WyNBZg

Did you know BA.2, driving wave 6 already, is almost the MOST CONTAGIOUS DISEASE IN THE WORLD?

The top spot goes to Measles with a R0 of ~14. Without protections, one measles patient would on average infect 14 more ppl.

Omicron BA.2 has an R0 of ~12.

afr.com/policy/health-…

More transmissible than Omicron BA.1 (Wave 5) by 40%. And numerous ppl infected with BA.1 were reinfected with BA.2.

So Herd Immunity cannot be the reason for our supposed safety now, because it clearly doesn't work well enough to suppress community transmission effectively.

To recap: worse variants, more transmissible, not recovered from Wave 5, inadequate surveillance, lack of testing, poor environmental controls, unclean air, HCWs dying, no Herd Immunity, Vax waning, & less transparency.

@CMOH_Alberta How precisely, are we safer as a population?

@ArynToombs @CBCFletch @MerlinofCanada @jvipondmd @GosiaGasperoPhD @ZiadFazel @ByMatthewBlack @PPEtoheros