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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 16 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Can anyone confirm this? Would represent another sign that Ukraine is being given a range of more advanced technologies. These could be used against softer logistics targets.
Looks quite likely. Does seem to be a general push now to get Ukraine a range of better stuff. Fixed wing might be imminent.
And a range of voices in the US now advocating more and better stuff. Momentum is building.
Confirmation that the US is sending Ukraine Switchblade UAVs. This could be very messy for the Russians.
The Russians have given no sign that they have any ability to counter this threat, indeed their ability to detect and attack UAVs seems particularly weak. If the Ukrainians use this effectively, could tear up Russian columns, particularly soft-skinned trucks.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 16
U.K. MOD maps of Ukraine war today and one week ago. I know we have been hearing a great deal about how the Russian military has been getting its act together and improving its logistics, but the evidence on the ground is hard to see. ImageImage
A slight advance from the north towards Luhansk, but basically stuck and maybe having to withdraw to the east of Kyiv.
I’ve been accused of being far too damning of Russian military performance from the start, however I have not seen a single example of a well planned and executed operation. From logistics to AirPower to ground movement, it all seems so patchy and chaotic.
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 16
Sounds right. One of the most sensible compromises (and I know some people don’t like the word) would be for Ukraine to forego NATO membership but be allowed into the EU.
Being in the EU would provide security in two ways. If Russia did ever threaten Ukraine again, it would be cut off even more completely economically than now.
And, the EU looks like it’s emerging from this war as a much more focussed strategic power with military aspirations. In 20 years or so who is to say that EU will be more important to Ukraine’s security than the USA led NATO.
Read 11 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 16
Some reflections of where we are now strategically in the war, and whether we might be entering the second phase of the war where all sides are altering their plans. This phase could determine how long and terrible this war will be.
The first phase of the war would be the failure of Putin's original strategy. The Russians drastically underestimated Ukrainian resistance and identity, miscalculated on NATO/EU response and seemed unaware of major flaws in their own military capabilities.
They've been dealing with that miscalculation since. As They are having major problems getting enough force to Kyiv to assault the city (as opposed to long-range bombardment), maybe even weeks away from an effort. Otoh, they are dong relatively better in the south and east.
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 15
I hear alot of talk about Putin switching to a southern/eastern alone strategy. A question I have, is how does that remain viable? Unless Ukraine signed over those territories it would involve perma-war, ethnic cleansing and perma-brutal sanctions with a collapsing economy.
The Russians might be able to take large parts of the Donbas, but how would they hold it?
Think the conversation on this so far makes alot of sense, would all depend if the Ukrainian government signed over large chunks of its territory. But why would it do that. Russia is the one with the crippling sanctions and Ukraine holds the key to them.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 15
With the majority of the Russian Army still unable to mount major operations for the past week, and what looked to be a very static day yesterday, I thought I might bring together some of the more 'positive' visions of Russian strategy and military prospects and at come comments.
Will go through a few of these today, as there a number of different ones which take the overall Russian military situation, the situation with Russian logistics, and what is the new Russian strategy for victory.
Starting with this report by Meduza three days ago, maybe the most positive of them all. Here we have Russian forces as following a successful military strategy.
Read 16 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 14
Battle around Kyiv, some interesting signs from different sources. Has the risky drive from Sumy by the Russians petered out--or was it never as close to start? This will have serious implications to any move on the Ukrainian capital.
This was the UK MOD's intelligence estimate map on 11 March. The drive seemed very close to the outskirts of Kyiv.
This is the most recent map, just released an hour ago. The Russian drive is now much further back, all the way to Romny. It this is true, that drive is in serious trouble.
Read 19 tweets

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