Yesterday saw very few Russian advance. Interestingly, Russian forces seem to have focused on the Donbass, including with an attack against Mariupol, and a continued attempt to surround Severodonetsk
I doubt #Russia is dropping its more ambitious goal for now, but I would not rule out that it's now more seriously considering a more limited goal (Luhansk, Donetsk and Kherson Provinces) as a Plan B to call its "special military operation" (invasion) a success.
I personally think, Plan A is still far more ambitious, and liable to prompt another escalation in violence, but Russia may have started considering more limited goals.
Publicly in Russia, it did not commit to capturing Kyiv, and focused entirely on the Donbas, explaining that even operations outside of it were meant to block the "Ukrainian offensive" that Russia claims (without any sort of evidence) was poised to target separatists
Even if Russia was to focus on the Donbas, this would be a difficult and bloody fight. This video from Mariupol shows a ground offensive will make the situation in the port city (already catastrophic) even worse.
Russia also continues to target evacuation routes from the Donbas. Last night shrapnel from shelling hit a train along the Lviv-Kramatorsk line. One of the conductors was killed and another injured.
Russian forces in Izyum are holding parts (or all) of the northern bank, but have been unable to advance past the river. Izyum offensive is part of a broader effort to isolate Ukrainian forces on the line of contact (JFO) with the "separatist republics"
An airstrike hit a residential tower in Chernihiv this morning. Most of the building collapsed, killing one and wounding seven (likely because people were not in the building). Seven were rescued by Ukrainian emergency service.
Video of the attack. Russian "precision strikes" are hitting civilian targets very precisely.
The 10th Mountain Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian army captured Russian electronic warfare equipment (Borisoglebsk-2) over the past day. They say they are going to use it against the Russian army. facebook.com/10brygada/post…
Picture from #Russia's "liberated" Volnovakha in #Ukraine's Donbas - sums up fairly well what Russian "liberation" means.
Also there are reports that the city is only partly controlled by Russia (but they hoisted the DPR flag anyway).
🚩9 people died, 57 were injured as a result of the attack against the Yavoriv base in the Lviv region near Poland, according to the head of the Lviv Regional State Administration.
According to preliminary info, more than 30 missiles were launched planes that took off from Saratov in Russia
I may be wrong, but on a military level, I don't think it makes a lot of sense for Russia to use assets from Saratov, which is quite far - would not discount that this is meant to send a message given the location of the targeted base, just 25 km from the Polish border.
Using so many missiles (provided the Ukrainian preliminary info is correct) to hit a base not directly involved in the fighting - but representative of Western efforts to support Ukraine - also sends a clear message.
TV tower hit in Sloviansk in the Donetsk region
Russian military warns that rallies are banned in Melitopol. The city has seen daily protests against the Russian occupation of the city.
🚩The Ukrainian Interior Ministry reports that 1582 civilians were killed in Mariupol over the past 12 days facebook.com/mvs.gov.ua/pos…
There were reports suggesting #Russian forces started arresting people in cities they control. This video showing a man likely being arrested by Russian forces in Enerhodar seems to confirm those reports
Here is another video of the same incident in Enerhodar. Hard to see but appears on the soldier is beating the person they just pulled out of the car at one point
Protest denouncing the Russian invasion in Berdyansk
Shot (possibly warning shots) fired during a protest denouncing the Russian occupation in Kherson
Russian airdropped bomb being removed from a residential building in Chernihiv
🚩New York Times filmmaker Brent Renaud was killed by Russian occupants in Irpin. Two additional journalists were wounded according to the Head of the Kyiv region police Andrew Nebytov.
Pontoon bridge set up by Russian forces in the Hostomel area near Kyiv - destroyed
A bit of good news: Ukraine's nuclear energy company Energoatom says that work has been completed to repair the power line feeding the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.
Russian forces shelled the Avdiivka Coke Plant near Donetsk
The Ukrainian Operational Command North claims to have shot down a Russian plane in Chernihiv
Russian soldiers on looting duty
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The last day saw very limited Russian advances as Russian forces have effectively paused most of their offensives with some exceptions (but are still massively shelling cities). Most movements are in the Donbass and in southern Ukraine (Mykolaiv Oblast particularly).
It's clear that the Ukrainian defense is one of the main factors behind the Russian "pause", but over the past days, the Russians also seem to be regrouping and reorganizing. This is not over unfortunately.
Let's start by this: The woman photographed in the aftermath of the Russian bombing of a Maternity hospital in Mariupol, days ago, gave birth to a baby girl.
I heard #Russia faces difficulties supplying its own troops. It seems they are, however, pretty good at supplying Ukrainian forces with all the ammo they need 👌
The head of the military administration of Mykolaiv reports that the Ukrainian air force was able to target a Russian supply convoy last night t.me/mykolaivskaODA…
The past 24 hours continue to show that Russian offensives are slowing down and mostly stalled. Still, around Kyiv, Russian forces are making slow/incremental (and costly) progress, in a bid to try and surround the city
From the most recent movements and previous attacks (and this is an assessment) it seems the two tactical objectives of the Russian forces around Kyiv may still be the Vasylkiv and Boryspil airport with offensives in the east and west of Kyiv (map is from @LeBeckInt's coverage)
There were some interesting info in the Ukrainian military update overnight. Broadly, my understanding Russian forces appear to have been able to cross the E40, west of Kyiv in an effort to surround the city. They likely took significant losses, but this is still notable.
Both the Ukrainian and Russian military updates mentioned the town of Nizhyn. Russia claims it took the city, Ukraine reported continued clashes.
This is an important town, as Russian forces are trying to link up south of Chernihiv and east of Konotop.