Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/4 - France (R-eff=1.20) is surging at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
109,556 cases and 120 deaths/d by Mar 24, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 18 to 21:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/4 - Ten mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium-low or [high] mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.12);
Bretagne=1.14;
Centre-Val-L=1.14;
[Corse=1.11];
[Grand-E=1.15];
Hauts-de-Fr=1.18;
Ile-de-Fr=1.16;
Normand=1.16;
Nouv-Aquit=1.10;
Pays-de-Loire=1.13.

3/4 - Three mainland Régions are plateauing or increasing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high mortality:
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.09);
Occitanie=0.99;
PACA=1.09.

4/4 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Rising with [high] low mortality in [Martinique (R-eff=1.12);Guadeloupe=1.17];Guyane=1.19;
- Plateauing in La Réunion=0.97, with medium mortality;
- Safe in Mayotte=1.03.

5/4 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

6/4 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0