Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/4 - France (R-eff=1.21) is surging at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
115,431 cases and 107 deaths/d by Mar 25, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 19 to 22:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/4 - Twelve mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epid activ, with medium or [high] mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.17);
Brg-Fr-C=1.18;
Bretag=1.18;
Ctre-Val-L=1.18;
[Corse=1.27];
[Gd-E=1.18];
Hts-de-Fr=1.19;
Ile-de-Fr=1.25;
Normand=1.18;
Nv-Aq=1.17;
[P-de-L=1.18].
[PACA=1.14].

3/4 - One only mainland Région is just increasing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality:
Occitanie (R.eff=1.08).

4/4 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Rising with [high] low mortality in [Martinique (R-eff=1.12); Guadeloupe=1.13];Guyane=1.15;
- Plateauing in La Réunion=0.99, with medium mortality;
- Safe in Mayotte=1.05.

5/4 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

6/4 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0