Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Mar 19 6 tweets 4 min read
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.21) is surging at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
115,431 cases and 107 deaths/d by Mar 25, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 19 to 22:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Twelve mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epid activ, with medium or [high] mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.17);
Brg-Fr-C=1.18;
Bretag=1.18;
Ctre-Val-L=1.18;
[Corse=1.27];
[Gd-E=1.18];
Hts-de-Fr=1.19;
Ile-de-Fr=1.25;
Normand=1.18;
Nv-Aq=1.17;
[P-de-L=1.18].
[PACA=1.14].
3/4 - One only mainland Région is just increasing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality:
Occitanie (R.eff=1.08).
4/4 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Rising with [high] low mortality in [Martinique (R-eff=1.12); Guadeloupe=1.13];Guyane=1.15;
- Plateauing in La Réunion=0.99, with medium mortality;
- Safe in Mayotte=1.05.
5/4 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
6/4 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0

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More from @FLAHAULT

Mar 20
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.21) is surging at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
120,425 cases and 110 deaths/d by Mar 26, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 19 to 22:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/4 - Four mainland Régions are experiencing surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium level of mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.24);
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté=1.22;
Corse=1.26;
Ile-de-France=1.28. ImageImageImageImage
3/4 - Nine mainland Région are experiencing rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium [or high] mortality:
Bretagne (R.eff=1.18);
Centre-Val-Loire=1.19;
[Grand-Est=1.18];
Hauts-de-France=1.19;
Normandie=1.19;
Nouv-Aqu=1.18;
Occitanie=1.16;
Pays-de-L=1.17.
[PACA=1.16].
Read 6 tweets
Mar 19
1/9 - Mar 19 to Mar 25 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
#BA2 wave of #COVID19 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Surging/Rising: [FL (R-eff=1.12)]; IT=1.24; FR=1.21; UK=1.20/IRL=1.19;AU=1.15;LUX=1.12; CH=1.10;
Increasing: DE=1.09;BE=1.09;
(Slow) landing: [DK; ICL]; NO; SE;(NL=0.92; PT=0.94; SP=0.94).
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Rise-increase/plateau in #COVID19 cases with high mortality in Greece (R-eff=1.12); Croat=1.11; CZ=1.09/Bulg=0.96; Belarus=0.95;Lith=0.95; Pol=0.97; Serbia=0.96; Slov=0.94;
- Landing in Bulg; Georg; Rom; Russia;
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 18
1/6 - La nouvelle vague #BA2 est en train de prendre de l’ampleur en Europe de l’ouest. Au Royaume-Uni, seul pays d’Europe qui dispose d’une veille sanitaire fiable (en termes de contaminations), la situation y est déjà décrite comme préoccupante.
2/6 - On enregistre au Royaume-Uni, comme en France (dont la veille sanitaire est beaucoup plus incertaine), une augmentation notable des hospitalisations. Pas (encore) des soins critiques parce que les plus de 80 ans ne vont pas en réanimation. Mais c’en n’est pas moins grave.
3/6 - L’Autriche réinstaure dans l’urgence le port obligatoire du masque, à peine deux semaines après l’avoir retiré. Les pays européens sont en train de constater les premiers effets de la désinvolture de leurs politiques vis-à-vis de la gestion de la pandémie.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 18
1/9 - “#COVID19 infections among over-70s in the UK surged to a record high in mid-March driven by the highly infectious #Omicron #BA2 sub-variant, according to the Office for National Statistics.”
ft.com/content/b4bf71…
2/9 - “Infection rates jumped in every region of the UK, apart from Northern Ireland. Scotland recorded its highest infection rates of the pandemic so far. In England, one in 20 people had #COVID19 over the same period, compared with one in 25 a week earlier.”
3/9 - “The surge in infections has already begun to contribute to increased hospitalisations. As of March 17, there were 14,671 #COVID19 patients in hospitals across the UK, an increase of 38 per cent in the past fortnight.”
Read 9 tweets
Mar 18
1/9 - Mar 18 to Mar 24 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
New wave of #COVID19 #BA2 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Surging/Rising: [FL (R-eff=1.23)]; IT=1.22;UK=1.21; FR=1.20; IRL=1.20/AU=1.15;LUX=1.11; CH=1.11;
Increasing: DE=1.09; BE=1.09; PT=1.05;
Landing: [DK;ICL];NL=0.94; NO; SE; SP.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Increase/plateau in #COVID19 cases with high mortality in Greece (R-eff=1.14); Croat=1.09; CZ=1.05/Lith=0.96; Pol=0.95; Serbia=0.95; Slovak=0.94;Bulg=0.92; Belarus=0.91;
- Landing in Bulg; Georg; Hung; Rom; Russia;
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 18
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.20) is surging at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
109,556 cases and 120 deaths/d by Mar 24, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 18 to 21:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Ten mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium-low or [high] mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.12);
Bretagne=1.14;
Centre-Val-L=1.14;
[Corse=1.11];
[Grand-E=1.15];
Hauts-de-Fr=1.18;
Ile-de-Fr=1.16;
Normand=1.16;
Nouv-Aquit=1.10;
Pays-de-Loire=1.13.
3/4 - Three mainland Régions are plateauing or increasing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high mortality:
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.09);
Occitanie=0.99;
PACA=1.09.
Read 6 tweets

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