Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Mar 18 9 tweets 4 min read
1/9 - “#COVID19 infections among over-70s in the UK surged to a record high in mid-March driven by the highly infectious #Omicron #BA2 sub-variant, according to the Office for National Statistics.”
ft.com/content/b4bf71…
2/9 - “Infection rates jumped in every region of the UK, apart from Northern Ireland. Scotland recorded its highest infection rates of the pandemic so far. In England, one in 20 people had #COVID19 over the same period, compared with one in 25 a week earlier.”
3/9 - “The surge in infections has already begun to contribute to increased hospitalisations. As of March 17, there were 14,671 #COVID19 patients in hospitals across the UK, an increase of 38 per cent in the past fortnight.”
4/9 - “These increases are largely driven by the marked rise of the #Omicron #BA2 sub-variant. Over-75s and immunocompromised people in the UK are set to be offered an additional booster dose from the end of the month.”
5/9 - “At this level of prevalence and the decision not to halt the spread, the most likely outcome is that almost everyone who is susceptible is going to be infected. The main concern is for the vulnerable and for those whose lives will be blighted by long #COVID19.”
6/9- “Stopping legally enforced self-isolation in England would have made the wave more difficult to contain now that fewer sick people are staying at home. On Mar 16, hospitals recorded 1,823 #COVID19 admissions, an increase of 20% in a week and the highest figure since Jan 13.”
7/9 - “There was an expectation that there would be an uptick once measures were lifted, but people weren’t expecting quite as steep an increase, so soon. We need to keep a close eye on it. There is a danger that people have been lulled into a false sense of security.”
8/9 - “The other UK nations have also begun to unwind restrictions in recent weeks, but on Tuesday the Scottish government postponed the end to compulsory mask-wearing until April, citing concerns over #BA2.”
9/9 - “A large proportion of registered #COVID19 patients are not being treated primarily for the disease and instead tested positive incidentally after being admitted. In England, they account for 56% of #COVID19 patients.”

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More from @FLAHAULT

Mar 20
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.21) is surging at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
120,425 cases and 110 deaths/d by Mar 26, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 19 to 22:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/4 - Four mainland Régions are experiencing surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium level of mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.24);
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté=1.22;
Corse=1.26;
Ile-de-France=1.28. ImageImageImageImage
3/4 - Nine mainland Région are experiencing rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium [or high] mortality:
Bretagne (R.eff=1.18);
Centre-Val-Loire=1.19;
[Grand-Est=1.18];
Hauts-de-France=1.19;
Normandie=1.19;
Nouv-Aqu=1.18;
Occitanie=1.16;
Pays-de-L=1.17.
[PACA=1.16].
Read 6 tweets
Mar 19
1/9 - Mar 19 to Mar 25 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImage
2/9 - Western Europe
#BA2 wave of #COVID19 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Surging/Rising: [FL (R-eff=1.12)]; IT=1.24; FR=1.21; UK=1.20/IRL=1.19;AU=1.15;LUX=1.12; CH=1.10;
Increasing: DE=1.09;BE=1.09;
(Slow) landing: [DK; ICL]; NO; SE;(NL=0.92; PT=0.94; SP=0.94). ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Rise-increase/plateau in #COVID19 cases with high mortality in Greece (R-eff=1.12); Croat=1.11; CZ=1.09/Bulg=0.96; Belarus=0.95;Lith=0.95; Pol=0.97; Serbia=0.96; Slov=0.94;
- Landing in Bulg; Georg; Rom; Russia;
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24. Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 19
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.21) is surging at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
115,431 cases and 107 deaths/d by Mar 25, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 19 to 22:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/4 - Twelve mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epid activ, with medium or [high] mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.17);
Brg-Fr-C=1.18;
Bretag=1.18;
Ctre-Val-L=1.18;
[Corse=1.27];
[Gd-E=1.18];
Hts-de-Fr=1.19;
Ile-de-Fr=1.25;
Normand=1.18;
Nv-Aq=1.17;
[P-de-L=1.18].
[PACA=1.14].
3/4 - One only mainland Région is just increasing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality:
Occitanie (R.eff=1.08).
Read 6 tweets
Mar 18
1/6 - La nouvelle vague #BA2 est en train de prendre de l’ampleur en Europe de l’ouest. Au Royaume-Uni, seul pays d’Europe qui dispose d’une veille sanitaire fiable (en termes de contaminations), la situation y est déjà décrite comme préoccupante.
2/6 - On enregistre au Royaume-Uni, comme en France (dont la veille sanitaire est beaucoup plus incertaine), une augmentation notable des hospitalisations. Pas (encore) des soins critiques parce que les plus de 80 ans ne vont pas en réanimation. Mais c’en n’est pas moins grave.
3/6 - L’Autriche réinstaure dans l’urgence le port obligatoire du masque, à peine deux semaines après l’avoir retiré. Les pays européens sont en train de constater les premiers effets de la désinvolture de leurs politiques vis-à-vis de la gestion de la pandémie.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 18
1/9 - Mar 18 to Mar 24 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
New wave of #COVID19 #BA2 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Surging/Rising: [FL (R-eff=1.23)]; IT=1.22;UK=1.21; FR=1.20; IRL=1.20/AU=1.15;LUX=1.11; CH=1.11;
Increasing: DE=1.09; BE=1.09; PT=1.05;
Landing: [DK;ICL];NL=0.94; NO; SE; SP.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Increase/plateau in #COVID19 cases with high mortality in Greece (R-eff=1.14); Croat=1.09; CZ=1.05/Lith=0.96; Pol=0.95; Serbia=0.95; Slovak=0.94;Bulg=0.92; Belarus=0.91;
- Landing in Bulg; Georg; Hung; Rom; Russia;
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 18
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.20) is surging at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
109,556 cases and 120 deaths/d by Mar 24, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 18 to 21:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Ten mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium-low or [high] mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.12);
Bretagne=1.14;
Centre-Val-L=1.14;
[Corse=1.11];
[Grand-E=1.15];
Hauts-de-Fr=1.18;
Ile-de-Fr=1.16;
Normand=1.16;
Nouv-Aquit=1.10;
Pays-de-Loire=1.13.
3/4 - Three mainland Régions are plateauing or increasing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high mortality:
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.09);
Occitanie=0.99;
PACA=1.09.
Read 6 tweets

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