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Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
@michaelh992
Mar 19, 2022 • 53 tweets • 17 min read • Read on X
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Despite claims that the city was fully captured by Russian forces yesterday, Ukrainian sources report that fighting is still ongoing in Rubizhne, near Severodonetsk. Cities are being shelled.
Russia responded in Mykolaiv by hitting a Ukrainian military base yesterday morning. Final number of casualties has yet to be released, but likely very high (at least 40). There are many pictures of corpse covered in debris

(pic via Expressen)
expressen.se/nyheter/raketa…
(I have corrected this tweet as there was a typo: This happened yesterday morning not this morning)
Meanwhile, the Dutch Ministry of Defense confirmed that, per a NATO request, Germany and the Netherlands are sending Patriot batteries to Slovakia. This is reportedly part of a deal that will see Slovakia send its S-300s to Ukraine (translated)
defensie.nl/actueel/nieuws…
The Ukrainian military claims to have killed Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev the Russian commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA)
🚩The #Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have used a Khinzal hypersonic missile to target an underground ammunition depot in the Ivano-Frankivsk region of western #Ukraine.
Using such a missile against a target in western Ukraine is clearly meant as a message of deterrence against the West. #Russia is trying to deter Ukrainian allies from sending weapon shipments.
The Ukrainian military released a video update with English subtitles yesterday on the situation in Kyiv, claiming that Russian forces have "given ground" and that the intensity of Russian offensives have diminished - though shelling continues.
Video released by the Ukrainian Operational Command South - artillery and drone strikes
Barabashovo market in Kharkiv
Destroyed Russian tanks near Kyiv.
The Russian Ministry of Defense released this video purportedly showing the destruction of a Ukrainian weapons depot in a "precision strike", claiming that an underground structure was hit.
(BTW I am not sure that this relates to the claim that they used the hypersonic Khinzal missile against an underground weapons depot, the statement does not specify where this happened)
There doesn't seem to be any secondary explosions, and people are leaving the building, so I am wondering what they actually hit. If it was a weapons depot, it was likely empty.
The Ukrainian military claims that #Russia is pulling units from the other side of the country, including the 155th Separate Marine Brigade (Vladivostok) 40th Separate Marine Brigade (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky), to "make up for the losses" suffered by Russian forces in Ukraine.
Parts of the Demydiv town northwest of Kyiv has been flooded after a dam along the Irpin River was blown up. Ukrainian sources are blaming Russia.
Russian T-72b3 destroyed in Mariupol
Destruction in Mariupol
Russian jammer captured by Ukrainian forces.
This "parachuted bomb" was reportedly dropped on an area of Kyiv (per Gerashchenko). I personally can't identify.
More pictures. The bomb was dropped yesterday
Source of the statement by Gerashchenko:
t.me/mvs_ukraine/97…
Those weapons appear to have been used in Lataminah, in #Syria
dailymail.co.uk/video/news/vid…
Video of the attack in #Syria (via @abada12773)
The Ukrainian military claims to have shot down a Russian Ka-52 helicopter and damaged another in the Zaporizhzhya area. No visual evidence so far (that I have seen).
Kharkiv tonight
The Russian Defense Ministry claims that Ukrainian forces have mined a chemical plant in Sumy, so as to "poison residents" if the Russian military enters the city (via RIA)

[Usual Russian false flag claims, let's hope this does not pave the way to an actual attack]
Mariupol
🚩All of the Belarusian Embassy staff in Ukraine left the country on March 18.
🚩First reported use of the TOS-1A "Flamethrower" thermobaric MLRS (undisclosed location)
Another view, likely of the same incident, filmed by RT
A longer video, containing the previous one, has now been released by the Russia-backed "Donetsk People's Republic" (via telegram)
(thanks to @sterion75 for pointing this out)
Though the Ukrainian military seems to just say Andrey Paliy is the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, he is in fact the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea fleet for Military-Political Work (so not the overall deputy commander)
Some local Russian sources in Crimea do appear to confirm that he died (still not a mainstream Russian source)
sevastopol.su/news/v-specope…
Russian column destroyed (undisclosed location)
The Ukrainian military released this video of strikes against Russian forces (undisclosed location)
Russian Tigr jeep captured in Mariupol - video by Ukrainian military journalist Ivan Bogdan
School 36, hit in Mariupol
Geolocation
google.com/maps/place/Sch…
School 66, Mariupol
Geolocation:
google.com/maps/place/%D0…
Seems like it could be a systematic effort to destroy schools (another picture from School 36)
Protest in Kherson denouncing the Russian occupation
In Berdyansk, Russian forces have started arresting protesters. Video shows Russian soldiers beating a protest on the ground.
Debris from a missile fell on a building in Kyv's Sviatoshynskyi district - pictures via #Ukraine's emergency service
Because of the way Russia fights, firing missiles at cities, Ukraine's firefighters are on the frontline too.
Another picture (from Ukraine's State Emergency Service)
Russian soldiers detained the deputy mayor of Enerhodar. Residents are holding a protest to demand his release.
Missile debris in #Kyiv
Vitali Klitschko the Mayor of Kyiv was in the Sviatoshynskyi district in Kyiv, where missile debris fell on a residential building
Video from Moshchun near Kyiv, which Russian forces tried to capture a few days ago after crossing the Irpin river. Ukrainian artillery strikes appear to have taken out Russian vehicles.
Picture of Russian SOBR (Special Rapid Response Squad) from Smolensk in Kachaly, near Kyiv

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More from @michaelh992

Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
May 30
As of now, Gantz and the opposition do not have the votes necessary to pass such a bill, unless there are defections within Netanyahu's own coalition. The question is whether this is an effort to encourage such defections or Gantz does have an indication that there are already defectors? It might also be a gamble, with no real plan.
As a reminder, Gantz has given Netanyahu a deadline (until June 8) to respond to six key demands. Netanyahu rejected the ultimatum moments after it was issued, and there were voices inside Gantz's own party who called to simply leave the government even ahead of the deadline
Advancing a bill to dissolve the Knesset would suggest Gantz is on his way out of the government.
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 15, 2023
Another Go-pro footage of #Hamas militants going house to house in Sufa, near #Gaza, during the October 7 attacks, shooting at civilians inside houses (a civilian can be seen in the living room, and falls after being shot).
In this video, a #Hamas militant fires at an ambulance stationed within the border community to make sure it cannot be used.
In this one, #Hamas militants enter a house, they hear a phone ring and try to find people inside the house.

They shoot upstairs, then one of the militants shouts "mother" trying to mimic a child, possibly to attract civilians hiding in the house.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
#Israel, #Gaza: Over the past day/two there have been conflicting reports about a possible #Egyptian warning that "something big" was going to happen.

Here is my understanding (based on various accounts and info in Israeli and Egyptian media) of what may have happened - with the Caveat, that we don't have the full picture yet:

1. The report that the Egyptian Intelligence Minister spoke to Netanyahu about this upcoming threat is wrong about at least one thing: Anybody involved in diplomatic protocole knows that cooperation is done on the same level. If Egypt's intel minister spoke to someone, it's unlikely to be Netanyahu but a minister.

2. There was from what I understand, a warning from #Egypt. The warning was passed to the Israeli security apparatus (unclear to me exactly who).

3. This warning was based, in part, on increased military exercises, training and mobilization from Hamas. The message Egypt received is that Israel knew about all of this.

4. Israel, however, had a different interpretation, and felt Hamas was just flexing its muscle. It took some measures, on Friday evening and was about to discuss more in the next day. That's when the attack happened. Israel did not get that this was going to happen now.

5. This interpretation was based on the overall assessment that Hamas was still deterred, and focused on fueling tensions in the West Bank rather than Gaza. This assessment, served to negates signs on the ground that Egypt picked up, but that Israel had also picked up - but misinterpreted.

In the end, Egypt's interpretation, proved right, in the worse way.
BTW, this is a textbook case of intel failure, one routed in the processing of info and in the analysis. @AnshelPfeffer noted the similarities with the Kippur War and the "concept" (I recommend his thread on this).

I can also say, as an analyst working in the field of intelligence (in a much more limited way to be clear), and having studied the intelligence cycle, this is an even more broadly reported intel failure. Collection drives analysis, and collection should be allowed to overturn analysis and assessments, not the opposite.

Major intel failures can result from prolonged (or short) periods in which analysis inadvertently overrules collection. The main assessment is validated and reinforced by "collected facts" because contradictory evidence is ignored by design.

Same with the second part of the cycle, which is tied to the dissemination of information to the political echellon. If it works in reverse, it trickles down, and you open yourself up for major failures in intel.
Image
That's true and a good point. Collection in itself isn't "facts", and analysis vets and reshapes collected intel, which makes the mistake I mentioned even more likely to happen.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
(GRAPHIC) Remains of what appears to be a young child, burned in his home in Kfar Aza, posted by South First Reponders. Image
I did very much hesitate to post this. But given the astonishing debates and discussions about whether children were killed and how, I did decide to post this.

On the source: South First Responders is a group of emergency personnel who are identifying corpses - something I have verified.
Additional pictures of a young woman shot in her bedroom Image
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
I personally don't buy that Lukashenko played this kind of role as a mediator.
For some reason, Putin is giving him this win, but I don't see Lukashenko as more than a figurehead.
There could be several reasons, including because a decision to resettle Wagner to Belarus without really consulting Lukashenko would show him for the puppet he is.

Or because Luka will now have to live with the fact the the mutineers of yesterday are on his own territory
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 8, 2023
🧵Here is more info I received on the risks posed by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
When reactors are in production, the plant uses the waters in the nearby pond to cool reactors Image
When the reactors are not in production, or in case of an accident, cooling is ensured through smaller cooling "fountains" situated closer to the cores. Image
Read 8 tweets

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