Thread on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to committed and total forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT estimates
Sources
UKR BDA and RUS force estimates minusrus.com/en
RUS BDA estimates interfax.com/newsroom/top-s…
OSINT BDA estimates @oryxspioenkop oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
UKR force estimates from The Military Balance 2021 from @IISS_org
Others as noted
UKR BDA and RUS force estimates minusrus.com/en
RUS BDA estimates interfax.com/newsroom/top-s…
OSINT BDA estimates @oryxspioenkop oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
UKR force estimates from The Military Balance 2021 from @IISS_org
Others as noted
https://twitter.com/michael27657213/status/1504912788870897676?s=21
Interpretation
All approximations. Some sources update. Data taken March 19, 10 am EST. Not an expert. Biases exist in data sources. OSINT source relies on photo evidence and is an undercount. Local reporting is believed to report a smaller % of UKR losses. OSINT BDA has backlog
All approximations. Some sources update. Data taken March 19, 10 am EST. Not an expert. Biases exist in data sources. OSINT source relies on photo evidence and is an undercount. Local reporting is believed to report a smaller % of UKR losses. OSINT BDA has backlog
Summary
OSINT % losses
RU Cmtd(RU total) vs UKR total
Personnel 15.2(3.2) vs 3.8
Armor 19.8(4.2) vs 6.2
Tanks 20.3(7.4) vs 7.8
Artillery 6.4(1.8) vs 1.5
Aircraft 3.9(0.9) vs 8
Helicopters 14.2(3.5) vs 2.1
OSINT % losses
RU Cmtd(RU total) vs UKR total
Personnel 15.2(3.2) vs 3.8
Armor 19.8(4.2) vs 6.2
Tanks 20.3(7.4) vs 7.8
Artillery 6.4(1.8) vs 1.5
Aircraft 3.9(0.9) vs 8
Helicopters 14.2(3.5) vs 2.1
RU claim of UKR loss % vs OSINT BDA %
Armor + Tanks 36.4 vs 6.6 (5.5x)
Artillery 30.9 vs 1.5 (20x)
Aircraft 79.2 vs 8 (9.9x)
Armor + Tanks 36.4 vs 6.6 (5.5x)
Artillery 30.9 vs 1.5 (20x)
Aircraft 79.2 vs 8 (9.9x)
UKR claim of RU(Cmtd) loss % vs OSINT BDA %
Personnel 30.4 vs 15.2 (2x)
Armor 50 vs 20 (2.5x)
Tanks 37.5 vs 20.3 (1.8x)
Artillery 12.8 vs 6.4 (2x)
Aircraft 28.2 vs 3.9 (7.2x)
Helicopters 46.7 vs 14.2 (3.2x)
Personnel 30.4 vs 15.2 (2x)
Armor 50 vs 20 (2.5x)
Tanks 37.5 vs 20.3 (1.8x)
Artillery 12.8 vs 6.4 (2x)
Aircraft 28.2 vs 3.9 (7.2x)
Helicopters 46.7 vs 14.2 (3.2x)
Russia: Personnel
UKR claim
57,800 (14,200; 42,600; 1000) (KIA; wounded; POW)
57,800/190,000 = 30.4% cmtd
57,800/900,000 = 6.4% total
OS
29,000 (7000(per US); x3=21,000; 1000(per UKR))
29,000/190,000 = 15.2% cmtd
29,000/900,000 = 3.2% total
newsweek.com/more-russian-s…
UKR claim
57,800 (14,200; 42,600; 1000) (KIA; wounded; POW)
57,800/190,000 = 30.4% cmtd
57,800/900,000 = 6.4% total
OS
29,000 (7000(per US); x3=21,000; 1000(per UKR))
29,000/190,000 = 15.2% cmtd
29,000/900,000 = 3.2% total
newsweek.com/more-russian-s…
Russia: Armored Vehicle
UKR claim
1448/2900 = 49.9% committed
1448/13758 = 10.5% total
OS
162 AFV + 226 IFV + 71 APC + 11 MRAP + 54 IMV + 9 comms + 43 engi
576/2900 = 19.8% committed
576/13758 = 4.2% total
UKR claim
1448/2900 = 49.9% committed
1448/13758 = 10.5% total
OS
162 AFV + 226 IFV + 71 APC + 11 MRAP + 54 IMV + 9 comms + 43 engi
576/2900 = 19.8% committed
576/13758 = 4.2% total
Russia: Tanks
UKR claim
450/1,200 = 37.5% committed
450/3,300 = 13.6% total
OS
244/1,200 = 20.3% committed
244/3,390 = 7.4% total
UKR claim
450/1,200 = 37.5% committed
450/3,300 = 13.6% total
OS
244/1,200 = 20.3% committed
244/3,390 = 7.4% total
Russia: Artillery
UKR claim
205/1600 = 12.8% committed
205/5689 = 3.6% total
OS
33 towed + 38 SPG + 27 MLRS + 5 mortar
103/1600 = 6.4% committed
103/5689 = 1.8% total
UKR claim
205/1600 = 12.8% committed
205/5689 = 3.6% total
OS
33 towed + 38 SPG + 27 MLRS + 5 mortar
103/1600 = 6.4% committed
103/5689 = 1.8% total
Russia: Aircraft
UKR claim
93/330 = 28.1% committed
93/1,379 = 6.7% total
OS
13/330 = 3.9% committed
13/1,379 = 0.9% total
Russia: Helicopters
UKR claim
115/240 = 47.9% committed
115/961 = 12% total
OS
34/240 = 14.1% committed
34/961 = 3.5% total
UKR claim
93/330 = 28.1% committed
93/1,379 = 6.7% total
OS
13/330 = 3.9% committed
13/1,379 = 0.9% total
Russia: Helicopters
UKR claim
115/240 = 47.9% committed
115/961 = 12% total
OS
34/240 = 14.1% committed
34/961 = 3.5% total
Ukraine: Personnel 1/2
Total regular force including was 209,000 (IISS 2021) before invasion. Reports that approximately 20,000 foreign fighters entered Ukrainian service. Territorial defence groups are also mobilizing beyond the initial reserve pool.
eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2022/…
Total regular force including was 209,000 (IISS 2021) before invasion. Reports that approximately 20,000 foreign fighters entered Ukrainian service. Territorial defence groups are also mobilizing beyond the initial reserve pool.
eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2022/…
Ukraine: Personnel 2/2
Zelensky stated on March 12 there have been 1,300 military deaths. Ukraine states that mil casualties have been less than civ casualties ~2,000 KIA
Losses 2,000 KIA + x3 = 6,000 wounded
8,000/209,000 = 3.8%
reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Zelensky stated on March 12 there have been 1,300 military deaths. Ukraine states that mil casualties have been less than civ casualties ~2,000 KIA
Losses 2,000 KIA + x3 = 6,000 wounded
8,000/209,000 = 3.8%
reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Ukraine: Armored Vehicles
Reserve 547 Reece + 1184 IFV + 622 APC + 65 eng = 2418
Losses 49 AFV + 48 IFV + 25 APC + 0 MRAP + 27 IMV + 0 comms + 1 eng
150/2418 = 6.2%
Ukraine: Tanks
Reserve 858
OS 67/858 = 7.8%
RU loss claim 1,194 armor + tanks
1,194/3,276 = 36.4%
Reserve 547 Reece + 1184 IFV + 622 APC + 65 eng = 2418
Losses 49 AFV + 48 IFV + 25 APC + 0 MRAP + 27 IMV + 0 comms + 1 eng
150/2418 = 6.2%
Ukraine: Tanks
Reserve 858
OS 67/858 = 7.8%
RU loss claim 1,194 armor + tanks
1,194/3,276 = 36.4%
Ukraine: Artillery
Reserve 607 SPG + 515 towed + 354 MLRS + 349 h mortar = 1825
RU claim
121 MLRS + 443 artillery
564/1825 = 30.9%
OS 15 towed + 10 SPG + 3 MLRS
28/1825 = 1.5%
Reserve 607 SPG + 515 towed + 354 MLRS + 349 h mortar = 1825
RU claim
121 MLRS + 443 artillery
564/1825 = 30.9%
OS 15 towed + 10 SPG + 3 MLRS
28/1825 = 1.5%
Ukraine: Aircraft
Reserve 125 combat capable
RU claim 99/125 = 79.2
OS 10/125 = 8%
Ukraine: Helicopters
OS 1/46 = 2.1%
Reserve 125 combat capable
RU claim 99/125 = 79.2
OS 10/125 = 8%
Ukraine: Helicopters
OS 1/46 = 2.1%
Naval losses for UKR near complete and best estimate are no losses for Russia despite one claim. Didn’t have time to analyze committed naval forces but may review later. See @covertshores and @GrangerE04117 for naval news
May be of interest @oryxspioenkop @Osinttechnical @sentdefender @All_Source_News @RALee85 @RealCynicalFox @jon96179496 @PeterCorless @vcdgf555
Ongoing visual breakdown of RU tank losses by @hippke
https://twitter.com/hippke/status/1504714575551340544
Time series graphs by @Lee__Drake
https://twitter.com/Lee__Drake/status/1500950805595103233
In case you want to play with the OSINT data, here is a link to a data scraper by @mountainherder
https://twitter.com/hrbrmstr/status/1504755988997591061
Fresh graphics from @Lee__Drake
https://twitter.com/lee__drake/status/1505651018809311239
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