Michael Bond Profile picture
Mar 20 4 tweets 2 min read
The upshot is boycott #oil and other #energy from #Russia. Tracking variables like a financial condition index are important to see if the economic measures being applied work. Quick explanation of the concept of a financial condition index below
Financial condition index is like the more standardized monetary condition index but uses variables such as currency price and asset price to make up the shortage of some conventional variables such as money supply and interest rate

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_…
Financial condition indices are usually proprietary and selection of appropriate variables requires consideration. The federal reserve prepares a US national FCI and analysts such as those at Goldman Sachs prepares various international FCIs

goldmansachs.com/insights/pages…
Improving financial conditions show Russia’s reengagement with western markets via an unexpected debt payment last week, reopening of the Moscow exchange and a rebounding Ruble. They fear financial isolation. We must plug the remaining gaps in sanctions

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More from @HelloMrBond

Mar 19
Push Brazil to sanction sugar exports to Russia?

Sugar sales increased around 6.5 times since the beginning of March.
As of March 11 sugar prices have jumped 12.8% in the last week

Vessels carrying 88,000 tonnes of raw sugar are on their way from Brazil

reuters.com/business/sugar…
@calxandr Is there a role for Canada to play in attempting to win Brazilian cooperation on sanctions on sugar export? Who in Canada would attempt this?
Read 4 tweets
Mar 19
Thread on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to committed and total forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT estimates
Sources
UKR BDA and RUS force estimates minusrus.com/en

RUS BDA estimates interfax.com/newsroom/top-s…

OSINT BDA estimates @oryxspioenkop oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

UKR force estimates from The Military Balance 2021 from @IISS_org

Others as noted

Interpretation
All approximations. Some sources update. Data taken March 19, 10 am EST. Not an expert. Biases exist in data sources. OSINT source relies on photo evidence and is an undercount. Local reporting is believed to report a smaller % of UKR losses. OSINT BDA has backlog
Read 23 tweets

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