Refusal from NATO will be strategic mistake for #Ukraine️. They say that @NATO doesn’t want UA as a member. On the contrary:1) this 🇩🇪 or 🇫🇷 position won’t change without pressure from UA. By refusing we strengthen idea, that RU is to decide about UA-NATO relations 🧵1/
2/Such refusal can’t be temporary and tactical. No one will treat UA seriously, if it decides to return to idea you join NATO later. UA authorities will look as unstable, if change strategic priorities from Constitution easily.
3/Another claim to @NATO like it doesn’t help UA now. Though #Ukraine expected closed sky, more air-defense and anti-missile systems, fighter jets, all other weapons are supplied by NATO member-states. NATO is alliance of countries. If some gover-ts are against, let’s push them
4/What’s the alternative? New defense alliances, giving security guarantees to #Ukraine? Theoretically, good idea. But unless UA win the war with Russia any of our allies won’t give us any real guarantees. Second useless Budapest memorandum is not needed for Ukraine
5/Finally, Russia doesn’t care about NATO, in particular. Putin needs #Ukraine to be alone, with no security guarantees, army without weapons to counteract RU. This non-block status is de-facto capitulation of UA. Let’s make it clear: “neutrality” means no peace
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1/ Most impressive from intercepted phone calls btw RU militaries and their wifes/moms: 1) women are excited by marauding catch, directly say to take as much as possible; 2) women hate Ukrainians, perceive them as subhumans and urge to kill and destroy. No compassion
2/ 3)Once RU soldiers are captured and call to ask relatives to make it public, to address authorities to release them, the is pure silence in response. Moms/wifes say “What can I do?”. This is the most impressive. Not to try to save your child, really?!
3/ 4) Lots of curse words. Almost any conversation btw soldiers and their women is 90% consist of curse words. Not just to call Ukrainians, but generally.
THREAD. There is a belief that the global outcome, if not of the war, but its next stage will be decided by the battle for Kyiv. But it will be defined by battle for Donbas and the South, where Russia is trying to conquest as much territories, as possible. 1/
Kyiv has not disappeared from Putin's plans, but he can't capture it now. After occupation of large areas connecting Russia and occupied Crimea and enlarging occupied Donbas, Putin will offer ceasefire. While he won't talk about withdrawal of forced from at least these regions
That's why the hottest battles are in Donbas, where intensive land operations are being conducted. Putin wants to show "victory", at least by enlarging so called "republics". It will enable him to play with fake ceasefire just to fix his troops' presence there
One pillar of #Russia’s tactics regarding West now is to disconnect RU people “who are not guilty”, and RU gov-t. By pushing this sensitive for 🇩🇪 or 🇮🇹 button of public opinion, Kremlin is trying to preserve its soft power and sentiments towards RU in usually loyal countries. 🧵
2/Kremlin needs easing of sanctions & will push the message “not to target ordinary Russians”, especially when military activities will be decreased a bit. RU has its ears in Western Europe for that. People there used to love 🇷🇺 and Russians for too long to stop it immediately
Example: #ResearchersAtRisk is almost fully aimed at UA now. But 5-10% of calls for applications are for RU researchers “escaping from regime”! How will you define, they are escaping? Cause they worked up to now in RU state think tanks, but now don’t want to live under sanctions?
What's next? Russia hasn't succeeded to occupy any regions of #Ukraine, and has focused on destruction of UA cities and war crimes against civilians. No humanitarian corridors, blockade of other cities like Mariupol and continued air and missile strikes. That's new RU tactics.1/
2/RU won't stop attacks on Kyiv, but mainly aims at fixing its current positions to blockade cities and occupy them later. That's why no serious offensive movements these days. No forces, no motivation, no capacities. Main aim to fix their presence, where they are.
3/RU isn't gonna step back. It means hostilities and civilian casualties will only increase. Usage of chemical & biological weapon becomes more likely, than ever. Nuclear weapon is also on agenda. That happens, cause UA army defeats RU on a land, and prevents RU domination in air
THREAD @NATO isn't able to prevent "bigger war" by denying #NoFlyZoneOverUkraine: 1) Even if NATO wants no direct war with #Russia, it will start once Putin decides about that.
2)This war isn't just btw UA & RU. It is already all-European one after Russia seized ☢️power plants
3) NATO is scared with actually meeting its direct obligations: to defend and to fight. It wants to leave UA alone with Putin, though supplying UA with weapons, but giving no extraordinary support like closed sky.
4) UA Army destroyed myth of undefeated RU army. But credibility of NATO is also under the question now, if not for UA, than for it's member states.
On 22.02 RU used reactive system of volley fire “Grad” to shell residential areas in Schastya,Muratove, Novotoshkivka and oth.(Luhansk obl.). People sat in shelters. Local authorities consider evacuation if shelling aren’t stopped. Why LPR hit Schastya? ⬇️in a 🧵
Schastya is situated exactly on a division line. It is needed for RU to proceed further on UA-controlled part of Luhansk region. Once RU crosses the river, it simply cuts from external world Stanytsya Luhanska district with population not less than 37 000 people.
Without capture of Schastya Russia won’t be able to move on the North part of oblast. RU idea seems to be: to burn town/villages with valley fire and artillery, make people escape/be evacuated, continue just with UA militaries, whose defense position are rather strong there.