What's next? Russia hasn't succeeded to occupy any regions of #Ukraine, and has focused on destruction of UA cities and war crimes against civilians. No humanitarian corridors, blockade of other cities like Mariupol and continued air and missile strikes. That's new RU tactics.1/
2/RU won't stop attacks on Kyiv, but mainly aims at fixing its current positions to blockade cities and occupy them later. That's why no serious offensive movements these days. No forces, no motivation, no capacities. Main aim to fix their presence, where they are.
3/RU isn't gonna step back. It means hostilities and civilian casualties will only increase. Usage of chemical & biological weapon becomes more likely, than ever. Nuclear weapon is also on agenda. That happens, cause UA army defeats RU on a land, and prevents RU domination in air
4/Putin hardly understands real situation in #Ukraine. Huge resilience, no concessions are possible. Army is a factor of influence as never. No one will risk even to start thinking on granting RU new territories and non-bloc status as vacuum of any security.
5/#Ukraine will continue negotiations, but even ceasefire isn't enough. Only withdrawal of RU troops. That's clear for both political and military leadership, though they won't say it officially. RU won't do that voluntary, thus the only one way left. Continuation of fights.
6/UA Army has to prevent "Donbas"-scenario for UA. In case UA start compromising with RU troops on its territory, they will never leave UA, like haven't left occupied Donbas. Decrease of military activities to fix on the ground and terrorize cities is good for RU, but not UA.
7/#Ukraine has to counterattack actively to throw Russian troops up to UA border. Otherwise, RU will try to "settle", start negotiations and even declare formal agreement with ceasefire. Than military support to UA will automatically decrease "not to escalate"
8/It's time to attack RU as heavily as possible, lobbying meanwhile new portions of air- & missile-defense. For pushing for #NoFlyZoneUA, at least above nuclear power plants, West of UA. And making it clear: no non-block status like in Yanokovich times is possible can't be now
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