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Mar 20 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
1/4 - Switzerland (R-eff=1.10) wave of #COVID19 #BA2 cases reaches #BA1 peak (end of Jan), with medium mortality;
33,439 cases and 10 deaths/day foreseen by Mar 24, if at same pace.
Forecasts Mar 20 - Mar 25.
Source: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG and @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/4 - Forecasted by Mar 25:
>2000 #COVID19 cases/100 Kpop/week in Aargau; Basel L; Basel S; Bern; Glarus; Obwald; Schaffhausen; Solothurn; St-Gallen; Thurgau; Ticino; Zug; Zürich;
>1000: Appenz A; Fribourg; Geneva; Grisons; Jura; Luzern; Neuchâtel; Nidwald;Schwyz;Uri; Vaud.
3/4 - By Mar 25:
>500: Appenz I; Valais;
The lowest forecasted #COVID19 cases in Geneva (560);
Highest R-eff in Basel S (1.27); Basel L. (1.23); Geneva (1.20); Vaud (1.17); Zürich (1.17);
Lowest R-eff in Appenzell I=0.69.
4/4 - People with at least 1 dose: 70.12% by Mar 17.
< 60% still in Appenzell I;
65-70% in Aargau; Appen A; Jura; Lucer; Nidwald; Schwyz; Uri;Valais; Zug;
> 70% in Basel L; Basel S; Bern; Fribourg; Geneva; Grisons; Neuchât; Obw; Soloth; Ticino; Vaud; Zür.
covid19.admin.ch/en/vaccination… Image

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More from @FLAHAULT

Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Mar 22
1/6 - Nos dirigeants partout enterrent le #COVID19 à la façon des autruches qui enfouissent la tête dans le sable: pour ne pas regarder.
Au sens propre d’abord, ils abandonnent les notifications quotidiennes et cassent ainsi le GPS de la pandémie: pas de météo, plus de tempêtes?
2/6 - Puis, ils lèvent les dernières obligations, celles du port du masque en lieux clos, puis les transports.
Les autorités sanitaires commettent possiblement ici une erreur qui pourrait s’avérer devenir une faute, tant en termes de morbi-mortalité qu’en termes de #LongCovid
3/6 - Les masques ne bloquent certainement pas la transmission du virus, donc lever l’obligation du port du masque ne devrait pas entraîner un fort rebond des contaminations. Mais le masque porté par tous réduit indubitablement et substantiellement la charge virale infectante.
Read 6 tweets
Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Mar 22
1/9 - Mar 22 to Mar 28 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImage
2/9 - Western Europe
#BA2 wave of #COVID19 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Rising: IT (R-eff=1.19); FR=1.18; UK=1.18; IRL=1.16;BE=1.13;LUX=1.12;AU=1.09;
Plateauing: [FL=0.98)]; DE=1.06; CH=1.0;
Landing: [DK]; ICL; NO; NL;
No report from SP;SE;PT. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Increase/plateau in #COVID19 cases with high mortality in Croat (R-eff=1.07); Greece=1.07; CZ=0.96; Rom=0.95;Lith=0.97; Pol=0.95;Serbia=0.97;
- (Slow) landing in (Slov=0.94; Hung=0.94; Bulg=0.93;Belarus=0.90;) Russia;
No report from Ukraine (Feb 24). Image
Read 11 tweets
Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Mar 22
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.18) is rising at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
116,038 cases and 99 deaths/d by Mar 28, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 22 to 25:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/4 - Eigth mainland Régions are experiencing surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium [high] level of mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.25);
[Bourg-Franche-Comté=1.26];
[Centre-Val-Loire=1.21];
Corse=1.33;
Ile-de-France=1.31;
Normandie=1.21;
Occitanie=1.23;
Pays-de-L=1.20. Image
3/4 - Five mainland Région are experiencing rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium [or high] mortality:
Bretagne (R.eff=1.19);
[Grand-Est=1.18];
Hauts-de-France=1.19;
Nouv-Aqu=1.17;
[PACA=1.19].
Read 6 tweets
Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Mar 21
1/9 - Mar 21 to Mar 27 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 - Western Europe
#BA2 wave of #COVID19 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Surging/Rising: IT (R-eff=1.23); FR=1.21/UK=1.19; IRL=1.19;AU=1.12;LUX=1.12;BE=1.11; CH=1.10;
Increasing: [FL=1.09)]; DE=1.07;
(Slow) landing: [DK; ICL]; NO; SE;(NL; PT=0.93; SP=0.95). ImageImageImage
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Rise-increase/plateau in #COVID19 cases with high mortality in Croat (R-eff=1.11)/Greece=1.09; CZ=1.02; Rom=0.99; Lith=0.99; Pol=0.97;Serbia=0.97; Belarus=0.96; Slov=0.95; Bulg=0.93;
- Landing in Russia;
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24. Image
Read 11 tweets
Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Mar 21
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.21) is surging at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
123,853 cases and 108 deaths/d by Mar 27, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 21 to 24:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/4 - Seven mainland Régions are experiencing surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium level of mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.25);
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté=1.25;
Centre-Val-Loire=1.22;
Corse=1.28;
Ile-de-France=1.30;
Normandie=1.22;
Occitanie=1.22. Image
3/4 - Six mainland Région are experiencing rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium [or high] mortality:
Bretagne (R.eff=1.19);
[Grand-Est=1.19];
Hauts-de-France=1.18;
Nouv-Aqu=1.17;
Pays-de-L=1.19.
[PACA=1.19]. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Mar 20
1/9 - Mar 20 to Mar 26 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImage
2/9 - Western Europe
#BA2 wave of #COVID19 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Surging/Rising: [FL (R-eff=1.10)]; IT=1.23; FR=1.21/UK=1.19; IRL=1.19;AU=1.13;LUX=1.12;BE=1.11; CH=1.10;
Increasing: DE=1.07;
(Slow) landing: [DK; ICL]; NO; SE;(NL; PT=0.93; SP=0.94). ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Rise-increase/plateau in #COVID19 cases with high mortality in Greece (R-eff=1.12); Croat=1.12; CZ=1.09/Rom=1.04; Bulg=0.96; Belarus=0.96;Lith=0.98; Pol=0.97;Bulg=0.96; Slov=0.95; Serbia=0.94;
- Landing in Russia;
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24. Image
Read 11 tweets

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