Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Mar 22 6 tweets 2 min read
1/6 - Nos dirigeants partout enterrent le #COVID19 à la façon des autruches qui enfouissent la tête dans le sable: pour ne pas regarder.
Au sens propre d’abord, ils abandonnent les notifications quotidiennes et cassent ainsi le GPS de la pandémie: pas de météo, plus de tempêtes?
2/6 - Puis, ils lèvent les dernières obligations, celles du port du masque en lieux clos, puis les transports.
Les autorités sanitaires commettent possiblement ici une erreur qui pourrait s’avérer devenir une faute, tant en termes de morbi-mortalité qu’en termes de #LongCovid
3/6 - Les masques ne bloquent certainement pas la transmission du virus, donc lever l’obligation du port du masque ne devrait pas entraîner un fort rebond des contaminations. Mais le masque porté par tous réduit indubitablement et substantiellement la charge virale infectante.
4/6 - Le masque protège, car réduire substantiellement la charge virale infectante permet d’éviter des hospitalisations et épargne des décès chez les immunodéprimés, immunosénescents, non-vaccinés + comorbidités.
Et cela permet d’espérer éviter des #LongCovid chez jeunes et âgés.
5/6 - On rapporte que 1% des personnes infectées par le #COVID19 feront un diabète.
Et si l’on apprend que ce sont celles qui avaient été exposées à une charge virale infectante plus élevée? Qui ne portaient pas de masques en locaux mal ventilés?
Et pour les autres troubles?
6/6 - Par précaution, tant que l’incidence > 50, on devrait:
- Exiger l’obligation du port du masque FFP2 en lieux clos recevant du public;
- Tester/Isoler;
- Mesurer la concentration de CO2 et ouvrir les fenêtres si >1000ppm ou sortir;
- Garder une veille sanitaire quotidienne.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Antoine FLAHAULT

Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @FLAHAULT

Mar 22
1/9 - Mar 22 to Mar 28 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
#BA2 wave of #COVID19 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Rising: IT (R-eff=1.19); FR=1.18; UK=1.18; IRL=1.16;BE=1.13;LUX=1.12;AU=1.09;
Plateauing: [FL=0.98)]; DE=1.06; CH=1.0;
Landing: [DK]; ICL; NO; NL;
No report from SP;SE;PT.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Increase/plateau in #COVID19 cases with high mortality in Croat (R-eff=1.07); Greece=1.07; CZ=0.96; Rom=0.95;Lith=0.97; Pol=0.95;Serbia=0.97;
- (Slow) landing in (Slov=0.94; Hung=0.94; Bulg=0.93;Belarus=0.90;) Russia;
No report from Ukraine (Feb 24).
Read 11 tweets
Mar 22
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.18) is rising at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
116,038 cases and 99 deaths/d by Mar 28, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 22 to 25:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Eigth mainland Régions are experiencing surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium [high] level of mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.25);
[Bourg-Franche-Comté=1.26];
[Centre-Val-Loire=1.21];
Corse=1.33;
Ile-de-France=1.31;
Normandie=1.21;
Occitanie=1.23;
Pays-de-L=1.20.
3/4 - Five mainland Région are experiencing rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium [or high] mortality:
Bretagne (R.eff=1.19);
[Grand-Est=1.18];
Hauts-de-France=1.19;
Nouv-Aqu=1.17;
[PACA=1.19].
Read 6 tweets
Mar 21
1/9 - Mar 21 to Mar 27 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
#BA2 wave of #COVID19 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Surging/Rising: IT (R-eff=1.23); FR=1.21/UK=1.19; IRL=1.19;AU=1.12;LUX=1.12;BE=1.11; CH=1.10;
Increasing: [FL=1.09)]; DE=1.07;
(Slow) landing: [DK; ICL]; NO; SE;(NL; PT=0.93; SP=0.95).
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Rise-increase/plateau in #COVID19 cases with high mortality in Croat (R-eff=1.11)/Greece=1.09; CZ=1.02; Rom=0.99; Lith=0.99; Pol=0.97;Serbia=0.97; Belarus=0.96; Slov=0.95; Bulg=0.93;
- Landing in Russia;
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 21
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.21) is surging at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
123,853 cases and 108 deaths/d by Mar 27, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 21 to 24:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Seven mainland Régions are experiencing surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium level of mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.25);
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté=1.25;
Centre-Val-Loire=1.22;
Corse=1.28;
Ile-de-France=1.30;
Normandie=1.22;
Occitanie=1.22.
3/4 - Six mainland Région are experiencing rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium [or high] mortality:
Bretagne (R.eff=1.19);
[Grand-Est=1.19];
Hauts-de-France=1.18;
Nouv-Aqu=1.17;
Pays-de-L=1.19.
[PACA=1.19].
Read 6 tweets
Mar 20
1/4 - Switzerland (R-eff=1.10) wave of #COVID19 #BA2 cases reaches #BA1 peak (end of Jan), with medium mortality;
33,439 cases and 10 deaths/day foreseen by Mar 24, if at same pace.
Forecasts Mar 20 - Mar 25.
Source: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG and @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/4 - Forecasted by Mar 25:
>2000 #COVID19 cases/100 Kpop/week in Aargau; Basel L; Basel S; Bern; Glarus; Obwald; Schaffhausen; Solothurn; St-Gallen; Thurgau; Ticino; Zug; Zürich;
>1000: Appenz A; Fribourg; Geneva; Grisons; Jura; Luzern; Neuchâtel; Nidwald;Schwyz;Uri; Vaud.
3/4 - By Mar 25:
>500: Appenz I; Valais;
The lowest forecasted #COVID19 cases in Geneva (560);
Highest R-eff in Basel S (1.27); Basel L. (1.23); Geneva (1.20); Vaud (1.17); Zürich (1.17);
Lowest R-eff in Appenzell I=0.69.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 20
1/9 - Mar 20 to Mar 26 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImage
2/9 - Western Europe
#BA2 wave of #COVID19 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Surging/Rising: [FL (R-eff=1.10)]; IT=1.23; FR=1.21/UK=1.19; IRL=1.19;AU=1.13;LUX=1.12;BE=1.11; CH=1.10;
Increasing: DE=1.07;
(Slow) landing: [DK; ICL]; NO; SE;(NL; PT=0.93; SP=0.94). ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Rise-increase/plateau in #COVID19 cases with high mortality in Greece (R-eff=1.12); Croat=1.12; CZ=1.09/Rom=1.04; Bulg=0.96; Belarus=0.96;Lith=0.98; Pol=0.97;Bulg=0.96; Slov=0.95; Serbia=0.94;
- Landing in Russia;
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24. Image
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(