Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/4 - France (R-eff=1.21) is surging at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
123,853 cases and 108 deaths/d by Mar 27, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 21 to 24:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/4 - Seven mainland Régions are experiencing surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium level of mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.25);
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté=1.25;
Centre-Val-Loire=1.22;
Corse=1.28;
Ile-de-France=1.30;
Normandie=1.22;
Occitanie=1.22.

3/4 - Six mainland Région are experiencing rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium [or high] mortality:
Bretagne (R.eff=1.19);
[Grand-Est=1.19];
Hauts-de-France=1.18;
Nouv-Aqu=1.17;
Pays-de-L=1.19.
[PACA=1.19].

4/4 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity, with [high] low mortality:
- Increasing/rising in [Guadeloupe (R-eff=1.05)] /Guyane=1.13;
- Plateauing in La Réunion=1.03;
- Landing in [Martinique=0.87];
- Safe in Mayotte=1.12 although rising.

5/4 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

6/4 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0