But hope was soon dashed. Stocks fell 40% by April 1942. The victory at Midway turned around the war, and the markets.
Note one of the darkest periods was May 1940, Dunkirk, and the fear the Nazis would win. One of the worst months for stocks in the 20th century.
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While stocks look like they did well during WW2, up about 40% during the war, inflation was such a big problem that they underperformed the CPI for a decade.
We have argued the yield curve inverts from the "inside out."
*First is the 10y/7y (cyan). This inverted a few days ago.
* Then 10-y/5y (red), now at 0.
* Next is the 10-y/3y (orange), also at 0.
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This continues until the 30y/FF inverts and can take several months.
As the next chart shows, once the 10y/5y yield curve inverts, the other curves typically follow suit.
With the 10y/5y curve at 0, this indicator is on the verge of signaling a full inversion is coming.
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And once the 10-year to 3-month yield curve inverts for at least 10 consecutive days, it has a perfect track record in forecasting recession back to the 1960s (the 1998 inversion was only three separate days).
*STRONG EARTHQUAKE SHAKES BUILDINGS IN CENTRAL TOKYO
JAPAN TSUNAMI WARNING ISSUED: NHK
Fukushima nuclear disaster was trigger by a March 11, 2011 earthquake
Today is five days past that anniversary date.
*M7.3 QUAKE HITS OFF FUKUSHIMA, TSUNAMI ADVISORY ISSUED: NHK
The March 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami was 9.0 to 9.1 and killed 15,899 caused $360B in damage and Fukushima nuclear plant was the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl
Year-to-date the long bond has corrected 14.46% through March 14. This is tracking its worst start in history.
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The MOVE Index is a broad measure of the bond market’s implied volatility. It has risen to levels not seen since March 2020 and the second-highest reading in the last 13 years.