Share this page!

Maybe Scrolly?
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Twitter logo
Mar 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6
A political🧵 with some very interesting charts.

Let's start with a new poll out today.

BIDEN APPROVAL RATING DROPS TO NEW LOW OF 40%, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED ON MARCH 21-22

So, no "rally around the flag" for Biden (yet?)

graphics.reuters.com/USA-BIDEN/POLL…
2/6
In fact, Biden is getting no bounce at all from being a "War-Time President" Image
3/6
Biden (blue) is in day 422 of Presidency. He is behind Trump (red) when he was at day 422. Image
4/6
And speaking of Trump. His favorability ratings started in October 2016 (the month before he was elected).

Favorability is what the word suggests, "what do you think of the guy."

Trump's highest ever favorability rating is ... now! (Orange line) Image
5/6
And Trump's current favorability (red) rating is well ahead of Biden's favorability (blue). Image
6/6
Bonus chart

Trump v Powell is looking a lot like the Rs v Ds generic ballot.

The generic ballot is asks "which party will you vote for" without specifying a particular contest or name. Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth

Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Mar 22
1/8
Here is a more complete 🧵on market reactions to world wars.

While @dailydirtnap is suggesting that the market rally is surprising, the same thing happened at the beginning of WW2 (after Sept 1, 1939)

2/8
But hope was soon dashed. Stocks fell 40% by April 1942. The victory at Midway turned around the war, and the markets.

Note one of the darkest periods was May 1940, Dunkirk, and the fear the Nazis would win. One of the worst months for stocks in the 20th century.
3/8
While stocks look like they did well during WW2, up about 40% during the war, inflation was such a big problem that they underperformed the CPI for a decade.

The "real," or inflation-adjusted SPX lost.
Read 8 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Mar 21
Powell

If we conclude that it is approp to move more aggressively by raising the funds rate by more than 25 bps at a meeting or meetings, we will do so

if we determine that we need to tighten beyond measures of neutral into a more restrictive stance, we will do that as well.”
Post Powell speech release:

50bps hike in May 4 now 55%
42% of another 50 in June 15.
Now nine hikes priced in for 2022.
2-year spiking big. Now at 2.10% to up 17bps

10y/2y curve now 17 bps
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Mar 20
1/5
War began Feb 24. To Mar 10, the natl avg of gas prices shot up a record $0.79 over 15 days to a new all-time high of $4.33.

As of y'day it backed off just $0.07 from this peak to $4.26.

And Mar 18 gas prices were down just $0.01, and unchanged on Mar 19.

Decline over?
2/5
Sept 2005 gas prices rose $0.46, when Hurricane Katrina broke infrastructure along the gulf coast.

The result was a 1.4% Sept 2005 CPI, tying the second biggest month in the last 70 years.
3/5
The month is not over but we still have a 70+ cent rise in gas prices, booming food prices and core inflation beginning the month at a 40-year high.

All this suggest March CPI could be one of the biggest monthly CPIs in our lifetime and launch the YoY CPI to 9%.
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Mar 18
1/5
We have argued the yield curve inverts from the "inside out."

*First is the 10y/7y (cyan). This inverted a few days ago.
* Then 10-y/5y (red), now at 0.
* Next is the 10-y/3y (orange), also at 0.
2/5
This continues until the 30y/FF inverts and can take several months.

As the next chart shows, once the 10y/5y yield curve inverts, the other curves typically follow suit.

With the 10y/5y curve at 0, this indicator is on the verge of signaling a full inversion is coming.
3/5
And once the 10-year to 3-month yield curve inverts for at least 10 consecutive days, it has a perfect track record in forecasting recession back to the 1960s (the 1998 inversion was only three separate days).
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Mar 16
Because we do not have enough news today ...

*STRONG EARTHQUAKE SHAKES BUILDINGS IN CENTRAL TOKYO
JAPAN TSUNAMI WARNING ISSUED: NHK

Fukushima nuclear disaster was trigger by a March 11, 2011 earthquake
Today is five days past that anniversary date.
*M7.3 QUAKE HITS OFF FUKUSHIMA, TSUNAMI ADVISORY ISSUED: NHK

The March 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami was 9.0 to 9.1 and killed 15,899 caused $360B in damage and Fukushima nuclear plant was the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5…
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Mar 15
1/4
While everyone focuses on the stock market, their is a tremendous amount of pain in the bond market.

The 30-year Treasury’s total return index is suffering its worst drawdown in history as it is now down 31.4% since its March 9, 2020 peak.

@ConvexityMaven @FedGuy12
2/4
Year-to-date the long bond has corrected 14.46% through March 14. This is tracking its worst start in history.
3/4
The MOVE Index is a broad measure of the bond market’s implied volatility. It has risen to levels not seen since March 2020 and the second-highest reading in the last 13 years.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @biancoresearch has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @biancoresearch!

Read all threads by @biancoresearch

:(