People ask me everyday what they can do to help #StopPutin, so here are some ideas.

#StandWithUkraine
This war is taking place on two battlegrounds—physical and informational. Most of us cannot do much to help win the physical war, but each of us can do a lot to help win the informational war.
In is admittedly difficult to make inferences from surveys in authoritarian regimes, but according to one estimate, only about 14% of Russian people know what is actually going on. These 14% use VPNs to access independent media, travel abroad, and have friends/family abroad.
The rest of Russians—86% fall into two categories: the “apolitical”—those who do not have the slightest idea of what is happening—and the monsters—those who know but still support the regime.
The monsters have no conscience and cannot be reached, but the “apolitical” groups is not small and can be reasoned with.
The “apoliticals” choose to stay uninformed, because they find it too costly to seek out independent information. What you don’t know cannot be used against you, VPNs cost $$$ (and you need a Visa card to pay for one, which is not even an option anymore).
From the perspective of an average Russian, there is not much they can do to influence their government: protesters are routinely arrested, beaten up, fined, and may even be sentenced to up to 15 years in jail.
On balance, it makes sense for an average Russian to stay out of politics and go about their daily life. It’s definitely safer that way.
Reaching these “apoliticals” is the West's best shot for changing Russian regime from the inside. Because these are the people who service and protect the current regime.
Putin and his entourage employ tens of thousands of these “apolitical” people to cook and clean for them, drive them around, decorate their palaces, and guarantee their physical safety.
The regime depends on these people for its day-to-day operation and survival. If these people chose to open their eyes and learn the truth, if even a small number of them turned against their employers, the regime would find itself in a very precarious position.
Imagine being surrounded by people who think you are a monster. Imagine eating a meal prepared by a chef who hates you or getting into a car when you cannot trust the driver.
The public as a whole cannot overthrow the Russian regime. But if a small number of these "apolitical" regime service-people are reached, they can certainly make the life of the Russian political elite pretty intolerable.
Now how can we reach the people who do not want to listen? It is not easy, but also not impossible. Research shows, for example, that people are more likely to listen when information comes from someone they respect and look up to, such as celebrities.
I am surprised by how few celebrities have taken a stance on Russia’s invasion. I know of very few instances of celebrities, Western or Russian, using their platforms to share the information with the Russian people.
I am talking about more than just posting a “NO WAR” banner on your Instagram, but using your influence to help validate and amplify the truth about Putin's war to people who look up to you. (I know Schwarzenegger did--and it's nice--but he was also in government.)
So here is something everyone can do:
1. Call on your favorite band/movie star for help. My favorite band @dcfc is very progressive on a lot of issues, but they are yet to make a statement;
2. Call on your favorite VPN provider to wave their fees for people in Russia @expressvpn

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More from @olga_chyzh

Mar 24
Why Russia and Ukraine CANNOT reach a stable peaceful settlement. #PutinsWar will go on as long as the very last soldier is standing. The reason is that every point of negotiation is plagued with commitment problems. 1/n
#StopPutin #StandWithUkraine
I previously explained that the cause of this war is an information failure.
The reason why a mutually respected peaceful settlement between Russia and Ukraine is NOT possible is what political scientists call a commitment problem.
Read 23 tweets
Mar 18
Here is how the West can #StopPutin without World War III. 1/n

#StandWithUkraine
Putin’s war in Ukraine is NOT just about Ukraine. Remember how it all started? Putin amassed his troops on the Ukrainian border, but what did he do next? He made a list of demands of NATO, not of Ukraine. Here is the list in case you missed that:
theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…
The fact that he threatened NATO with an invasion of Ukraine, rather than threatening Ukraine, speaks volumes about his goals and intentions, as well as his view of the current conflict (“conflict” in the broad sense, not just #PutinsWar in Ukraine).
Read 27 tweets
Mar 17
Why is Putin bombing maternity wards and shelters labeled “CHILDREN”? Why does he order reckless attacks on nuclear plants and major dams? Why are Russian soldiers mining humanitarian corridors?

Other than being the epitome of evil, of course. 1/n

#StandWithUkriane #StopPutin
War is the continuation of bargaining by other means. It is an opportunity to convey information to your opponent-information about your capabilities, resolve, and the ability to inflict costs.
One of the two causes of war is private information. Wars occur, because opponents disagree on a peaceful division of some prize. They disagree, because they lack accurate information on each other’s capabilities, resolve, and ability to inflict costs.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 12
The West, especially @POTUS, has demonstrated a complete lack of the most basic understanding of crisis bargaining, brinkmanship, and deterrence. Here are the Cliff’s notes of Schelling, Fearon, and Powell with an application to #PutinsWar. This is taught in any Intro to IR. 1/n
War is a bargaining failure. The goal of crisis bargaining is to find the bargaining range-the division of pie that ALL parties prefer to fighting. Such a bargaining range always exists: war is costly-it decreases the size of the pie. The pie is always larger before the war start Image
So why do wars occur? There are two main reasons: private information and commitment problems. (There is really a third—issue indivisibility—it is more of a bargaining strategy than a cause of war, and it is subsumed by the others).
Read 22 tweets
Mar 10
If you’re hoping that the war in Ukraine will lead to a popular revolution in Russia, here is why it won’t. #StopPutin #StandWithUkraine 1/n
I explain this via a comparison to the popular revolution in Ukraine in 2014, which resulted in the ouster of Yanukovich--mass protests started in response to his abrupt withdrawal from negotiating Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
This was the focusing event that helped solve the coordination problem bringing hundreds of thousands of protesters to Maidan in Kyiv on the same day. In the case of Russia, such a focusing event could be some aspect of Putin's war in Ukraine, e.g. use of chemical weapons.
Read 14 tweets
Mar 8
A poll done by Navalny's Anti-Corruption Fund shows that the number of Moscovites who view Russia as the aggressor increased from 29% on Feb 25 to 53% on Mar 3. #StandWithUkraine️ #StopPutin

img.pravda.com/images/doc/5/3…
As a researcher, I cannot help but admire the research design. To account for obvious sampling bias, the poll is repeated 4 over a short time period. While the absolute values are still likely biased, you can see the trend.
This question is "what is the impact of sanctions on Russia's economy?" Red denotes "catastrophic." Catastrophic increased 20 percentage points.
img.pravda.com/images/doc/5/e…
Read 4 tweets

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