Week 4 of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine. Today I examine the Battle for Mariupol, based on a longer article I have written for @smh 1/15 smh.com.au/world/europe/m…
2/15 The war in southern Ukraine, at least until recently, has differed from that in the east and the north. This southern Russian campaign has resulted in the capture of most of Ukraine’s coastline and nearly all of its vital seaports.
3/15 Almost all. To the west, the city of Odesa with its large seaport sits untouched by the war so far. It has been preparing for a Russian attack for weeks. These are yet to occur because of the Ukrainians have fought them to standstill well to the city’s east. 
4/15 Further east, a single defiant city holds out. Mariupol. It is the final enclave in Russia’s southern conquest that is yet to bow before the Russian invaders. Because of this, the citizens of Mariupol, and its courageous defenders, have paid a high price. Image @odesdivchina
5/15 The Russians have finally encircled the city, and are able to bombard it from the west, north and east. If they chose, they could also fire on the city from Russian Navy vessels offshore, or use airpower to further pummel the city (if the Air Force turns up to the war).
6/15 Like the rest of the Russian war in #Ukraine, the battle for #Mariupol has become a grinding, attritional fight where many lives are traded for very small gains on the ground. What does this tell us?
7/15 It demonstrates how desperate Putin is for a military triumph to show to his people. For weeks, the Russians have thrown military unit after military unit at the city. The defenders of Mariupol have defied the odds and have out against this ongoing assault.
8/15 President Zelensky has rejected a Russian ultimatum to surrender the city. But Putin clearly aims to break the city. As such, Mariupol is no longer a military objective but a political one for the Russians. washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/…
9/15 The Russian military wants to claim Mariupol as a victory so that it might sell to the world (and probably its own soldiers) the idea that the Russian military can still win.
10/15 Given the amount of destruction by the Russians, the city now has minimal military utility. The vicious assault on the city and its citizens will be of keen interest to investigators from the International Criminal Court. The entire Russian chain of command is culpable.
11/15 Mariupol also shows just how bad the Russian Army is. Many observers had assumed, in the past three weeks, they had already seen the worst of the Russians. Mariupol is demonstrating a new low in corrupt military leadership & unnecessary brutalisation of Ukrainian civilians.
12/15 Finally, Mariupol is an example of what 21st century urban combat has become. Through a combination of long-range bombardments and close quarter fighting, the Russian assault has turned most of the city into grey, rubble-strewn wasteland.
13/15 Such scenes have not been seen in Europe for decades. For many, the obliteration of Mariupol is reminiscent of the Second World War. These kinds of scenes were thought left in the 20th century. Mariupol shows us that this is not so.
14/15 If the Russians do capture Mariupol, they will finally have their continuous corridor from Crimea to Russia, and another warm water port. Image - @TheStudyofWar
15/15 The Russians may even claim it as a military success. But it will be a victory in name only. Given the atrocious behaviour of the Russians here, we may well coin a new phrase to supplement the term ‘pyrrhic victory’ – Russian Victory. End
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