Thread by @noclador

As I see people already excitingly shift brigades from northwestern Kyiv to Donbas for a relief operation of Mariupol...

I want to spell out a few things 🧵:

1) a relief of Mariupol isn't even among the top 3 operations of the Ukrainian General Staff right now

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2) the operation North-west of Kyiv is the current main focus; it is ongoing and it is 𝘧𝘢𝘳 from over. Once Kyiv's western side is secure Ukraine won't move units from there 650 km away from Kyiv, when 20,000+ russian troops operate 30 km North-east and East of Kyiv

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Once Kyiv is secured, the units in the North will focus on relieving Chernihiv and Sumy, then Okhtyrka and Kharkiv, and not move South
3) units in western Ukraine will remain static to guard the NATO supply line against possible attacks from Belarus

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4) the forces massing at Mykolaiv aren't going to Mariupol either. All russian supplies for the attack on Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih pass over the Antonovskiy Bridge in Kherson and the nearby Kakhovka dam, and before that (like the supplies for the russian attack on Mariupol

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and Zaporizhzhia) come from Crimea. Leaving these supply lines open, while shifting forces from Mykolaiv on exterior lines to Zaporizhzhia for an attack on Mariupol, would expose Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih, endanger the supply line to Zaporizhzhia, and risk a new russian push

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towards Odesa. Trying to relief Mariupol, while the russian supply line out of Crimea is still open, would result in a stalemate.
5) Holding the front on the Donets & Konka rivers is paramount to securing the flanks of Ukrainian units in Donbas.

Mariupol must hold out alone.
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