Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Mar 5 4 tweets 1 min read
No,no, no.

Stop arguing for attacking the russian Black Sea Fleet, while it is anchored of Crimea.

Patience.

Ukraine will attack it with every anti-ship missile available once the russians commence their landing operations near Odesa.

Think about it:

1/4
Once those landing ships open their bow doors to let the BTRs into the water, these ships are sitting ducks.

Closing those doors takes time, closing them means abandoning the troops already in the water. Recovering the troops already in the water takes even more time.

2/4
And all of the fleets escort ships: retreating means to abandon the landing ships to be destroyed, remaining near the shore to cover the landing ships means to be easy targets for anti-ship missles.

In short: any russian landing near Odesa is gonna be another putin fiasco.

3/4
So: let's not hit russian ships now. Let's entice them to move into the killing zone.

Ukraine has been reinforced and equipped by Western allies to annihilate russia's entire Black Sea Fleet.

So let's just sit back and get the popcorn out.

4/4

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More from @noclador

Jan 13
A short thread about #Finland 🇫🇮&🇸🇪 #Sweden... and the short time left for them to join #NATO.

1) #Russia is about to invade #Ukraine.
2) This will lead to a massive increase of NATO forces in #Poland, #Estonia, #Latvia, and #Lithuania.

1/5
3) Russia's invasion will also result in #Finland & #Sweden requesting to join #NATO.
4) points 2 & 3 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 for #Russia & Russia will risk everything to prevent these.
5) The easiest way to stop a country from joining NATO is to occupy a part of it.

2/5
6) #Russia's solution is to occupy Sweden's #Gotland.
7) If Russia occupies Gotland then NATO will reject Sweden's bid as accepting it would mean immediate war with Russia.
8) With Sweden's bid rejected #Finland would have to face Russia alone or accept Finlandization again.

3/5
Read 5 tweets

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