Thread by @noclador

Thread re. #Belarus:

putin is forcing Belarus to join his failed invasion of Ukraine. putin seems to believe Belarus's military can stop the flow of Western weapons and supplies to Ukraine.

putin is an idiot:
1) Belarus can't
2) Belarus troops will be slaughtered

1/6

The main NATO-Ukraine supply line runs from Rzeszów to Vinnytsia (+ two more secret supply lines).

That line is 220-250 km from Belarus.

If unchallenged russian forces can move at maximum 120 km from their railheads before needing to be resupplied.

2/6

There are only two railways russia could use:

• Brest, Belarus - Kovel, Ukraine
• Pinsk, Belarus - Sarny, Ukraine

Ukrainians are gonna blow both up. Forcing russia to use the railheads in Brest and Pinsk, which are 50 km respectively 30 km from Ukraine

3/6

This means russian forces can at best move 70-80 km into Ukraine before having to stop for supplies,which must be trucked in through northern Volyn and Rivne oblasts... a densely forested, hilly, rough terrain, full of swamps that is criss-crossed by 100s of rivers.

4/6

russian supplies will have to move on a handful of roads... which can be easily mined and offer 1000s of ideal places for ambushes.

In Volyn and Rivne more than 95,000 men have signed up for the territorial defense... all of them full of hate for russians and all of them

5/6

armed with Western anti-tank weapons and Stingers; and all of them know their region in and out.

Whatever putin sends down these roads, will be slaughtered. This is the worst terrain for an invader, especially an incompetent invader.

NATO's supply line will remain open.

6/6