Thread by @JosephHDempsey

#NorthKorea 🇰🇵 suspected to have successfully conducted its first full lofted trajectory test of Hwasong-17 ICBM (Thread🔽)
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202203…

#Japan MoD estimates #NorthKorea missile flew for 71 minutes, covering a distance of about 1,100km with a max altitude exceeding 6000km
mod.go.jp/j/press/news/2…

Comparison of #NorthKorea 🇰🇵 ICBM lofted trajectory tests:

Hwasong-14 (4 & 28 July 2017)
930km▶️ 2800km🔼 39m⏲️
1000km▶️ 3700km🔼 41m⏲️

Hwasong-15 (29 Nov 2017)
950km▶️ 4475km🔼 53m⏲️

Hwasong-17 ? (24 Mar 2022)
1100km▶️ 6000km+🔼 71m⏲️

🙋‍♂️Why so high? Why a lofted tests?

Geography limits #NorthKorea, testing a ballistic missile beyond around 1000km requires a more provocative overflying another country, namely #Japan. North Korea has done this previously but only a handful of times.

Our first - but hopefully not only - look at the #NorthKorea missile launch courtesy of @JASDF_PAO F-15 Eagle

https://twitter.com/ModJapan_jp/status/1506974306861187077?s=20&t=fEVwTQVH1QrjlmCrPmebgA

This is actually 🇰🇵 Hwasong-17 ICBM suspected 4th flight following two partial tests under the 'reconnaissance satellite' guise and a failure

27 Feb 2022
300km▶️620km🔼

05 Mar 2022
270km▶️560km🔼

16 Mar 2022❌
nk▶️20km🔼

22 Mar 2022
1100km▶️6000km+🔼

https://twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/status/1502050861475844101?s=20&t=-4aa3H3VjsKZyll3ccbHyg

#NorthKorea may not acknowledge this as an ICBM test

"The purpose of these tests, which did not demonstrate ICBM range, was likely to evaluate this new system before conducting a test at full range in the future, potentially disguised as a space launch."

defense.gov/News/Releases/…

Some more precise figures on #NorthKorea ballistic missile lofted trajectory from #SouthKorea, compared to the initial #Japan estimates

🇰🇷1080km▶️ 6200km 🔼
🇯🇵 1100km▶️ 6000km+🔼

https://twitter.com/ROK_MND/status/1506950760352784390?s=20&t=SbQgt8ahOkSGCR1oD-2gmQ

#NorthKorea 🇰🇵 release images confirming launch of Hwasong-17 ICBM

This picture!

Geolocation of #NorthKorea Hwasong-17 ICBM launch
(39°11'17.54"N 125°39'59.41"E)

This is also the first time we have seen #NorthKorea launch any ICBM directly from a TEL (Transporter Erector Launcher), for previous Hwasong-14 & 15 launches the stand was detached so as not to risk their precious few Chinese origin TEL.

Unknown if also true for the three recent unseen Hwasong-17 launches

As per Hwasong-12 IRBM tests they may have worked up to direct launch from TEL. However the claimed domestic TELs may also be more replaceable than the Chinese imports.

https://twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/status/1507112107531190272?s=20&t=D1ECv40LV6GEfeMXLNvzgQ

We can now add #NorthKorea own claimed stat for Hwasong-17 to the external estimates:

🇰🇵 1090km▶️ 6248.5km🔼 67m32s⏲️
🇰🇷 1080km▶️ 6200km 🔼
🇯🇵 1100km▶️ 6000km+🔼 71m⏲️

https://twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/status/1507031103286267904?s=20&t=prGQvK3PVpzVYhZe797QWg

Excellent analysis by @ColinZwirko

The Hwasong-17 launch shown may not have been on the 24 March.

Was a more reliable ICBM (Hwasong-15) used on 24 March to fake a Hwasong-17 success following the 16 March failure?

nknews.org/pro/imagery-ca…