“The pace of economic growth ‘Accelerated Sharply’ in March as Covid 19 containment measures were relaxed to the lowest since the Pandemic began, offsetting a drag from growing concerns about the Ukraine War. Output across both Mfg. & Services rose at a rate not seen since…
“… last June with inflows of new business ‘Surging’ at a rate not witnessed since the Strong Rebound of the Economy seen in the second quarter of last year.”
“Services led the Upturn… but Manufacturing Output growth also ‘Accelerated,’ buoyed by Rising Demand…
“…& Fewer Supply constraints. Supply bottlenecks ‘Fell to the Lowest in 14 Months.’ Capacity continues to be Stretched, however, with March seeing an ‘Unprecedented’ Build Up of Uncompleted Orders as Firms Struggle to Meet Demand”
“….Hence Job Creation Picked Up…Again… to the Highest for Nearly a Year.. as firms sought to expand to meet Rising Sales.. both at home & abroad..
Not only did Domestic Demand Improve, but New Export Orders also Rose at a Pace not seen since May.”
“With Demand Running Ahead of Supply… Selling Price inflation for Goods & Services Remain Elevated in March, though cooled slightly from Feb.”
“In terms of Outlook, Biz confidence slipped to lowest since Oct, but remained Encouragingly Resilient.”
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Hate to break it to some of these Perma Bears… but the Fed hasn’t run out of Bullets to fight inflation… they can continue to Hike rates & slow down QE or even step up RRP cash disbursements that make the Banking system even more ridiculously liquid.
The act of liquifying Banks in a Post Basel III & Gold Plated (including CCAR etc) world.. & creating M2 doesn’t in & of itself create inflation.. the Regulatory framework pushes money out of Banks on Supply side when it meets an optimal demand function. $XLF #Reflation
The calculus was to push Inflation blame game on Russia…. Instead they are gonna get the Alt Left War on American Energy made Putin Richer & Americans Poorer.
Really bad optics…& factually correct. If I was him… I’d quickly come to some Russian resolution..
Growth rarely Decelerates meaningfully with $ZROZ down to this degree, unless This Time Is Different. Highly Doubt it
$XLF #Reflation
Margins usually Peak ~Year 3 (+/-) of a Recovery. For instance, Margins Peaked a Decade before the last Credit Cycle ended. Leadership changes…& Cycles usually Sequence.
U nailed it imho….first thing people do is go back to the last episode (2018-2020) w/o a good understanding of the changing contextual backdrop as well as QT mitigants that are currently in place & evolving further.
$XLF #Reflation
Another big time clue imho… $BAC did a 4.5% Pref Issuance a few days ago… if that ain’t a sign the Market has too much liquidity not sure what is….
$XLF #Reflation
The question for Investors (longer term horizon) is when do you sell $XLF ?
The answer is when Deposit Betas finally catch up to ~50% or 10Y3M Inverts Investors start to Pay Less & Less for every $1 of earnings power (driven by the Flow Through Rate of Inflation)….
Long Term “Investors” who respect the Credit Cycle Started selling $XLF at the Peak of Price/TBV on $BKX in Jan 2018 at 2.1x & also long $ZROZ …as Deposit Betas were Peaking + Cyclicals/Commodity stocks like $CAT etc..
The other natural question that should pop up is…well if the Taper is coming & BKX is 1.8x…why shouldn’t 1 sell now? Won’t the Fed kill the Cycle w QT.. why on earth would 1 wait around… after doubling/tripling money from the March 20 bottom.. why wouldn’t 1 crystallize gains?