The "it was all about Donbas all along" rhetoric persists.
What should we make of it? A month into the war, Putin was convinced that Russia should cut its losses, claim territories in Donbas and call it a full victory.
Short thread 1/6
What should we make of it? A month into the war, Putin was convinced that Russia should cut its losses, claim territories in Donbas and call it a full victory.
Short thread 1/6
https://twitter.com/tass_agency/status/1507571813265690627
It is still too soon to take it at face value but a number of indicators point that Moscow may be starting to recognize that initial plans to "reinvent Ukraine" aren't happening. Heavy resistance from Ukraine, heavy losses on the Russian side are doing their job.
2/6
2/6
Does it mean that bloodshed will stop soon? No, or at least not yet. This might be a move towards the pause in bloodshed but we're still in the situation when facts on the ground define reality. If Russia can achieve a military victory somewhere on the ground there is nothing
3/6
3/6
holding same people saying that "in order to protect Donbas Russia needs to take Kyiv or Odesa" or whatever other objective the senior leadership will want to come up with.
So, any optimism is premature.
4/6
So, any optimism is premature.
4/6
These developments are however indicative of the fact that if Ukraine continues to push back as they do now, there is a good chance to through invading forces back soon expect for the east of Ukraine. And then reach an agreement to pause violence.
5/6
5/6
Ukraine is winning but Russia still has resources to continue the war. It is not collapsing right now.
So any agreement would be only temporary. I do not see a possibility for Ukraine to recognize any military gains made by the Russian army in the long-term.
6/6
So any agreement would be only temporary. I do not see a possibility for Ukraine to recognize any military gains made by the Russian army in the long-term.
6/6
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