Thread by @ABarbashin

How does Russia foreign policy expert discourse evolve a month into this war?
"After this war is over it will lead to a more stable security system based on mutual animosity.
Now they fear us - it is as good as respect"
Thread 1/10

Thesis one: prior to the war the West stopped believing that Russia would follow through on its threats. "Russia in decline" narrative began to take too much hold. By invading Ukraine we've proved that "we mean what we say". If they didn't fear us before, they fear us now.
2/10

Thesis two: this war is West's fault and now we made them recognize that (Josep Borrell recognition that NATO expansion promise was a mistake). Thus now they would listen to us more cautiously. Time will pass and new geopolitical reality will take hold. Emotions will go
3/10

Thesis three: China is there for us. Not as active supporter but this war further erodes Western global dominance. We need that, China needs that. That unites us. Don't look at Ukraine, look at the bigger picture.
4/10

Thesis four: US has more to loose from this conflict than us: role of USD, authority and status as security provider across the world.
Thesis five: US will not be able to break Russia and that would be their failure. They will come to us to ask for help towards China
5/10

Thesis six: US thought we will exchange our security interests for economic prosperity at the price geopolitical passivity. Our resolve will break their system and create a new one.
6/10

Thesis seven: They won't live without our gas, no long-term isolation of Russia is possible. As soon as we stop active phase of "special military operation", they will revert on sanctions. Otherwise they will freeze.
7/

Thesis eight: Why Ukraine? It is the only power near Russia's border that had the potential to be a security risk for Russia: large population, big military, ideologically hostile.
Ukraine is our Pakistan. By demilitarizing it now, we secure a more safer tomorrow
8/10

Thesis nine: After this war is over there would be a new wall between Russia and Europe and this would be a more stable world.
Now they know we mean business. This would be a system based on mutual animosity but it would be safer for Russia
9/10

Source: MK interview of key MGIMO/Valdai expert, Andrey Sushentsov mk.ru/politics/2022/…
Comment: No regrets. Full conviction that Russia will win because it has more resources to sustain long-term confrontation. Underestimation of the West/domestic risks for stability
10/10