Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 26 11 tweets 3 min read
If you want to understand why Russian missiles are not always able to kill Ukrainian drones, this map is a very good start in understanding why.🧵

If your radio energy direction finding gear locates an enemy radar accurately. Good digital terrain maps can predict where
1/
...the radar can see and where it cannot.

Then a drone or missile can be "evasively routed" through radar coverage to strike a target.

I've talked about this before on Twitter.

2/
The best people in the world at making evasive radar routing for drones and missiles in the world are the USAF officers and airmen at the Stand-off Munitions Activity Center (SMAC) at Barksdale AFB.

3/
8af.af.mil/Units/Standoff…
Back in October 2018 the Dallas chapter of the Association of Old Crows had a Chapter awards meeting/boat ride social event recognizing "SMAC's" work. I attended.

SMAC does evasive radar routing for integrated cross-service stand off munition attack profiles for all the
4/
...services when facing high end "Anti-Access Area Defense (A2AD) threats.

That would be the S-400 missile system in Crimea at the start of this tweet thread.

5/
Pres. Trump's 2018 US/NATO military strikes on Syria for it's nerve gas use were planned by them.

Open source metrics presented by the USAF-

SMAC did 1700 JASSM targets worth of route planning in FY2017
6/
A "Medium threat" environment like Syria prior to the latest generation Russian S-300 SAM deployment was a couple of days & two full simulation runs for a 90% effective to target strike

A "Kaliningrad class" threat takes longer and requires five simulation runs with the best
7/
...threat data for a 70% effective target engagement.

We are in 2022. The men and women of SMAC are A LOT BETTER.

The problems for the Russians in Ukraine is that so is everyone else, especially Turkey.
8/
army-technology.com/projects/bayra…
While it is public knowledge that Israel passed on Drone tech to Turkey, most haven't realized the most important bit was digital mapping mission planning software to route drones through integrated air defenses.

Turkey has had five years of combat in Libya, Syria and Armenia
9/
against Russian air defense to hone that mission planning software transferred to Ukraine with the TB2's.

And any of Turkey's digital "lesson learned" can be copied perfectly, infinitely & cheaply.

10/
It is this infinite & near perfect digital replication of tactical lessons learned which is the real threat of high tech drone warfare.

Something the Ukrainian military is now demonstrating on the Russian Army.

11/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 28
@All_Source_News @ColbyBadhwar @_log_scale_ @AnselLindner @gladstein @raw_avocado @Comm_Morino @zndtoshi @The_IntelHub @Osinttechnical @jon96179496 @air_intel @TheOsintBunker @sentdefender @TheOsintJournal @YAmzallagh @Felix_Nuno @RealCynicalFox @SpencerGuard @SP1AUTOINJECT @int_osic @OSINTEng @ohsendit @OSINT_Canada Cause & effect chains are not that hard.

They teach them to DoD quality inspectors & auditors to protect the public from defense contractor fraud, waste & abuse.

The idea is to know organizational behavior templates and their proxies.

1/
@All_Source_News @ColbyBadhwar @_log_scale_ @AnselLindner @gladstein @raw_avocado @Comm_Morino @zndtoshi @The_IntelHub @Osinttechnical @jon96179496 @air_intel @TheOsintBunker @sentdefender @TheOsintJournal @YAmzallagh @Felix_Nuno @RealCynicalFox @SpencerGuard @SP1AUTOINJECT @int_osic @OSINTEng @ohsendit @OSINT_Canada The most important behavior template is "corruption cannot be centralized."

AKA, If you see a corrupt practice. There will be more.

Proxies are harder to explain, but there is a public health inspection one that Marvin Zimler of ABC 13 Eyewitness News Houston made popular
2/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 27
This thread🧵will lay out the reasons I think the Russians blew the technological development necessary to deal with drone threats in Ukraine & elsewhere.

Like all really important problems, it starts with how badly you treat people...in this case, Russian engineers.👇
1/
Ukrainian media sources have noted a massive emigration of Russian STEM workers for at least 5-years.

There is a reason for this. Putin issued a decree stating that STEM workers were a "National Resource." AKA they could be taken as a state slave.

They took the hint.
2/
The bill for this came due in 2018.

In January 2018 there were DIY armed drone attacks on the Russian Khmeimim airbase & the Tartus, Syria naval base.

The drones drew on existing radio controlled aircraft technology. They had diesel engines,
3/ Image
Read 13 tweets
Mar 27
@robertgibbins14 >>Your logistics insights were extraordinary during this war.

It is less a matter of "being extraordinary" than simple experience.

The "common knowledge" of how military logistics really worked has faded with the end of draft armies in the West.

This 'null experience'
1/
@robertgibbins14 ...with how military logistics really works is why civilian intelligence analysts simply cannot get this stuff correct in this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

As for Russian logistics, The Ukrainians have counter attacked and reached the Russian border at Trostianets.

2/
@robertgibbins14 That wouldn't have happened if Russian logistics were working.

The Ukrainians are doing slow, low casualty for them, counterattacks taking the maximum advantage of standoff munitions and drones to take back their territory

3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 27
These were the sorts of 'logistical things' I had expected to be seeing in some form from the Russians in Ukraine, & haven't.🧵

Pallet capable trucks are the Swiss Army knife/lego set of modern logistics.

China has pallet trucks in their economy & military logistics.
1/
We have seen such trucks help to build China's COVID-19 isolation hospitals.

It is this focus on modern industrial & logistical productivity by the CCP over the last 40 years which makes China the emerging superpower that it is today.

2/
This Western national security analytical failure to see the implications of this lack industrial & logistical productivity in Russia & its presence in China is one of the more troubling outcomes of the invasion of Ukraine.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 24
@GRomePow 21 * 500= 10,500 missiles.

The US has only produced 45,000 Javelins since production began in the 1990's for all customers world wide.

It is 2022. The oldest stocks are over 20 years old and the US has a robust testing program randomly selecting missiles out of each production
@GRomePow lot.

Missile solid fuel engines age out at 10 years and require a careful depot level engine replacement plus electronics refresh.

The US does this as a matter of course, Congressional budget permitting, but most FMS customers do not.

2/
@GRomePow At most, 30,000 of that 45,000 are available somewhere in the world with about half being both in possession to the US military and available as warshot.

The US Army will not drain stocks from Indo-Pacific units, 18th Airborne Corps or the Stryker brigades.

That leaves the
3/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 24
Alright folks, this is a logistical 🧵on pallets, cranes, ISO containers, and what we are _NOT_ seeing on Russian Trucks in Ukraine

Below is really good background tweet 🧵on the importance of pallets as a logistical productivity tool, since we are not seeing them in Ukraine
1/
and we should be seeing a whole lot of them.

Instead, we are seeing the Russian Army use two man carry break bulk boxes of mortar & artillery ammunition like this.

2/
Pallets are fundamental to the mechanized movement of goods in a modern economy or military.

See:
"According to an article in a 1931 railway trade magazine, three days were required to unload a boxcar containing 13,000 cases of unpalletized canned goods. When the same
3/
Read 22 tweets

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