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Duo Nine ⚡ YCC Profile picture
@DU09BTC
Mar 27, 2022 • 15 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
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1/ I see a lot hopium on my feed, but its time for a cold shower.

Are we out of the bear market? Probably not.

Here are 10+ reasons why you don't want to drop the soap. 😂

🚨 Bearish divergence warning on multiple charts.

Lets dive deeper, a thread. 👇 Image
2/ Lets start with stable coins first, then move to more "exotic" assets in crypto (e.g. NFTs/DeFI).

First, #USDC - best centralized stablecoin (aka, they can freeze your money).

See that beautiful top? USDC market cap falling since 1 Mar 2022 + double top = bearish.

Next 👇 Image
3/ Second, #DAI - best decentralized stablecoin (aka, they can't freeze your money).

"LOL you forgot about #UST." No I didn't, keep reading.

Again on DAI, double top + falling mcap = bearish.

Next 👇 Image
4/ What about #UST and #USDT?!

These give FALSE signals. Why false? Because they can't be TRUSTED. Here's why.

UST/USDT = see those lines up. Its mostly fake money/demand.

Real money/collateral is in USDC/DAI.

Don't believe me? Next 👇 ImageImage
5/ #LUSD - like DAI but ETH only as collateral.

Lower highs, falling mcap = bearish.

Still not convinced? OK, see next stablecoin. 👇 Image
6/ #FRAX - better than UST and less manipulation.

Falling mcap = bearish.

BTC is moving up in price while demand for trusted CEX/DEX stablecoins is falling = bearish divergence.

What is a bearish divergence? 👇 Image
7/ Price makes a higher high & an indicator makes a lower high = bearish divergence.

Best example is a higher price with a lower volume than the previous high = time to be careful!

BTC price moving up with falling demand for stablecoins = CRASH???

Is this it? NO! Next 👇 Image
8/ Lets look at #NFTs next.

Overall market volume is tanking = bearish!

Where is all the hype and demand? GONE.

Lets look at some clear NFT examples, including BAYC 👇 Image
9/ My favorite, The #Sandbox, or DIGITAL land!

Sandbox land prices went from average of 5 #ETH to almost 2 for one square!

Volume and prices tanking = bearish!

What about avatar NFTs? Image
10/ Divine Anarchy, one of the best out there, 50% price crash!

Volume and prices crashing = bearish!

Just one random avatar went from 18 ETH listed price to a 0.4 ETH sale! All in 4 months.

What about the biggest name in NFT space - Bored Ape Yacht Club or #BAYC? 👇 ImageImageImage
11/ Oh look BAYC crashed 50% in sales value compared to Sep 2021 and 80% in NUMBER of sales!

How is this bullish exactly? It is not and you should be careful.

But lets look at #DeFI, surely it is bullish? 😂 Image
12/ NOPE. #DeFI all time high was last year...

We still failed to exceed the old total value locked.

At best, maybe DeFI consolidates and won't fall lower.

There is no new money coming in right now.

What about... google trends? 👇 Image
12/ Even google trends is bearish, wtf.

I mean, the current #Bitcoin all-time high from Nov 2021 (69k) made a lower high compared to May 2021 (65k) or Dec 2017 (20k)!

Very curious divergence here for BTC. Retail FOMO (e.g. 2017) has NOT returned since!

So what next? 👇 Image
13/ Keep powder dry in case the market falls lower.

We appear to have topped in 2021, at least for now.

Money is not really coming to crypto right now.

It's all in BTC's hands. Can it rally in 2022 again?

Also see my other thread on this and 👇

14/ If you liked this thread, #retweet the first post to get more of this content in the future! 😍

Stay in touch + follow @DU09BTC:

Discord: bit.ly/3n2gng0
TradingView: bit.ly/3FUjwHj
YouTube: bit.ly/3p8vPdf
Newsletter: bit.ly/3BuXf13

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More from @DU09BTC

Duo Nine ⚡ YCC Profile picture
Oct 27
Bitcoin is in trouble.

If nothing changes soon, things won’t be pretty.

I’m not talking about the halving schedule or block rewards, it’s much more serious than that.

A thread 1/17 🧵 Image
2/ As Bitcoin goes mainstream, fees to transact on its network will replace block rewards.

This will be gradual and take place over decades. However, a new problem is starting to emerge.

It was harder to predict this, but now it’s here. Image
3/ The first incentive is to buy and hold Bitcoin. Nothing new so far.

However, we now have a bigger incentive. It has to do with you NOT using the real Bitcoin.

Intrigued?

Let’s look at the facts next and follow @DU09BTC before we continue.
Read 17 tweets
Duo Nine ⚡ YCC Profile picture
Oct 11
If you hold Ethereum, you are in trouble.

Uniswap, an ETH dApp generating $500 mil / year in fees, just created its own L2. Now, those fees are reduced by 100x and go into Uniswap pocket.

Multiply this by 100x with other dApps and ETH's price will go to zero. A thread 1/12 🧵
2/ The reason Ethereum has value is because of its fees that generate demand for its native token.

At the time of this post, it costs over $10 for a simple token swap.

ETH is on borrowed time as users are rightfully ditching this expensive chain. Who's to blame? Image
3/ Vitalik and his team.

They decided to scale Ethereum via L2s, but in the process they are losing their users. A bit ironic considering L2s were meant to fix ETH's scaling problem.

As L2s proliferate and users move out, Ethereum faces an even bigger problem. Image
Read 12 tweets
Duo Nine ⚡ YCC Profile picture
Oct 5
It took me 10 years in crypto to learn this - PART 3!

I'm offering you a shortcut so you don't have to wait that long.

The cycles repeat, but they are not the same.

Here's Part 3. A thread. (1/11) 🧵 Image
2/ Since I started in 2014, I made many mistakes, but nothing compares to this one.

Buying altcoins.

But what did I know back then? Nothing. If you're new to crypto, learn from this thread.

What's my lost profit over the years thanks to alts?
3/ Over $1 million had I put that money in BTC and held. There is a reason I say this.

Altcoins are a losers game over time.

Bitcoin is a winners game over time.

Which game do you want to play? My next point will help sway you in the right direction.
Read 11 tweets
Duo Nine ⚡ YCC Profile picture
Oct 1
Last night I was the victim of one of the most complex social engineering scams I've ever seen impersonating @paraficapital staff.

If you're in crypto, you are a target.

This thread will show you how they did it and if they succeeded. Time to find out - 1/15 🧵 Image
2/ If you have any following they will target you. Their account will look spotless, clean text + X verified.

Ryan is a Principal of a billion dollar crypto company and sends you a DM on X, then he moves you to TG.

Your first priority is to confirm credentials. How? Image
3/ Ask a DM from their company X account or to send you an email using their official domain name.

Ryan was frustrated with my request, so he told me I need to do proper DD and see he's followed by almost all his Parafi team.

Instant red flag, but I decided to play ball. Image
Read 15 tweets
Duo Nine ⚡ YCC Profile picture
Sep 29
It took me 10 years in crypto to learn this - PART 2!

I'm offering you a shortcut so you don't have to wait that long.

The cycles repeat, but they are not the same.

Here's Part 2. A thread. (1/12) 🧵 Image
2/ Altcoins are highly extractive.

VCs print tokens from thin air with a cost basis of ZERO.

When there is any demand for their token, they sell and absorb that demand. This is how they take your money, legally.

This is also why your blue chip alt didn't make a new ATH. Image
3/ VCs don't care about their token price!

As long as there is any retail demand, they can sell into it at a profit. That includes tokens down by 90% to 99%.

Remember, their cost base is ZERO! While retail waits for new highs or buys "discounts", VCs laugh at you. See XRP. Image
Read 12 tweets
Duo Nine ⚡ YCC Profile picture
Sep 22
It took me 10 years in crypto to learn this.

I'm offering you a shortcut so you don't have to wait that long.

The cycles repeat, but they are not the same.

Here's Part 1. A thread. (1/11) 🧵 Image
2/ Ethereum is having an existential crisis.

What's the point of ETH if all transactions + volume moved to its L2s?

Until ETH finds its purpose again, L1s like Solana will chip away at it.

It still has the mass, but the clock is ticking and Vitalik singing won't fix it. Image
3/ Solana's success sparked an L1 rush again.

Scaling into L2s or L3s just makes your L1 redundant, see ETH.

Therefore, L1s are back on the menu. Look into SUI and similar L1s.

Be on guard for an Ethereum resurgence as well since they won't let go that easy.
Read 12 tweets

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