Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
@michaelh992
Mar 29, 2022 • 19 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 29
The face-to-face negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations are about to start in #Istanbul. President Erdogan just addressed the two delegations before the talks

live on CNN Turk:
cnnturk.com/canli-yayin
🚩In one of its latest updates the Ukrainian military made several interesting claims. The first is that they recaptured Kamyanka and Topolske south of Izyum. This would be the second successful counter-offensive near Izyum (still waiting on video confirmation though)
🚩The Ukrainian military also claimed that its forces were “controlling the situation” in the settlements of Motyzhyn, Lisne, Kalynivka and Dmytrivka west of #Kyiv.
Most of those are situated along the E40 highway west of Kyiv, and were likely never fully captured by Russia. This most likely means Russian forces have been pushed out from these areas.
The Ukrainian emergency service says that this morning a shell hit an administrative building in Mykolaiv, without a section of the building collapsing. 9 victims have been extracted from the rubble.
Destroyed Russian column (undisclosed location)
Picture of the destroyed building in Mykolaiv - 9 victims so far
Kherson
Cruise missile that hit Mykolaiv Regional Administration building possibly captured on CCTV flying over Dnieper near Kherson
Video of Russian soldiers in the Donbass (published on TikTok). Opsec is for losers apparently. TikTok has a warning that says "participating in this activity could result in you or others getting hurt"
That's definitely how you win a war.
Video: The commander of Russia's Central Military District, Col. General Aleksandr Lapin awards medals to Russian soldiers in the Chernihiv region
Roman Abramovich spoke to Erdogan before the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul
🚩The Russian Foreign Ministry claims that the #US and its allies launched a "massive cyber campaign" against #Russia, with hundreds of thousands of attacks every day. Russia warns that will have "grave consequences"
According to the ministry the army of "cyber mercenaries operating against Russia" are given "combat missions" which border on "terrorism"

[preparing the ground for a cyber attack against the US?]
Meanwhile Shoigu reportedly stated that Moscow was monitoring statements of leaders of NATO countries on the supply of aircraft and air defenses. He warned that of an "adequate response" should these plans be implemented.
In his speech, Shoigu repeated that the first phase of #Russia's "special operation" was over, and that Russian forces would now focus on "liberating" the Donbass.
Macron is speaking to Putin

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Michael A. Horowitz

Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michaelh992

Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 15, 2023
Another Go-pro footage of #Hamas militants going house to house in Sufa, near #Gaza, during the October 7 attacks, shooting at civilians inside houses (a civilian can be seen in the living room, and falls after being shot).
In this video, a #Hamas militant fires at an ambulance stationed within the border community to make sure it cannot be used.
In this one, #Hamas militants enter a house, they hear a phone ring and try to find people inside the house.

They shoot upstairs, then one of the militants shouts "mother" trying to mimic a child, possibly to attract civilians hiding in the house.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
#Israel, #Gaza: Over the past day/two there have been conflicting reports about a possible #Egyptian warning that "something big" was going to happen.

Here is my understanding (based on various accounts and info in Israeli and Egyptian media) of what may have happened - with the Caveat, that we don't have the full picture yet:

1. The report that the Egyptian Intelligence Minister spoke to Netanyahu about this upcoming threat is wrong about at least one thing: Anybody involved in diplomatic protocole knows that cooperation is done on the same level. If Egypt's intel minister spoke to someone, it's unlikely to be Netanyahu but a minister.

2. There was from what I understand, a warning from #Egypt. The warning was passed to the Israeli security apparatus (unclear to me exactly who).

3. This warning was based, in part, on increased military exercises, training and mobilization from Hamas. The message Egypt received is that Israel knew about all of this.

4. Israel, however, had a different interpretation, and felt Hamas was just flexing its muscle. It took some measures, on Friday evening and was about to discuss more in the next day. That's when the attack happened. Israel did not get that this was going to happen now.

5. This interpretation was based on the overall assessment that Hamas was still deterred, and focused on fueling tensions in the West Bank rather than Gaza. This assessment, served to negates signs on the ground that Egypt picked up, but that Israel had also picked up - but misinterpreted.

In the end, Egypt's interpretation, proved right, in the worse way.
BTW, this is a textbook case of intel failure, one routed in the processing of info and in the analysis. @AnshelPfeffer noted the similarities with the Kippur War and the "concept" (I recommend his thread on this).

I can also say, as an analyst working in the field of intelligence (in a much more limited way to be clear), and having studied the intelligence cycle, this is an even more broadly reported intel failure. Collection drives analysis, and collection should be allowed to overturn analysis and assessments, not the opposite.

Major intel failures can result from prolonged (or short) periods in which analysis inadvertently overrules collection. The main assessment is validated and reinforced by "collected facts" because contradictory evidence is ignored by design.

Same with the second part of the cycle, which is tied to the dissemination of information to the political echellon. If it works in reverse, it trickles down, and you open yourself up for major failures in intel.
Image
That's true and a good point. Collection in itself isn't "facts", and analysis vets and reshapes collected intel, which makes the mistake I mentioned even more likely to happen.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
(GRAPHIC) Remains of what appears to be a young child, burned in his home in Kfar Aza, posted by South First Reponders. Image
I did very much hesitate to post this. But given the astonishing debates and discussions about whether children were killed and how, I did decide to post this.

On the source: South First Responders is a group of emergency personnel who are identifying corpses - something I have verified.
Additional pictures of a young woman shot in her bedroom Image
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
I personally don't buy that Lukashenko played this kind of role as a mediator.
For some reason, Putin is giving him this win, but I don't see Lukashenko as more than a figurehead.
There could be several reasons, including because a decision to resettle Wagner to Belarus without really consulting Lukashenko would show him for the puppet he is.

Or because Luka will now have to live with the fact the the mutineers of yesterday are on his own territory
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 8, 2023
🧵Here is more info I received on the risks posed by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
When reactors are in production, the plant uses the waters in the nearby pond to cool reactors Image
When the reactors are not in production, or in case of an accident, cooling is ensured through smaller cooling "fountains" situated closer to the cores. Image
Read 8 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 8, 2023
Pro-Russian sources have reported a significant #Ukrainian attack in the Zaporizhzhya region, including ground attacks against a series of villages situated south and southwest of Orikhiv - such as Lobkove Image
The pro-Russian sources are reporting several offensive axes in this area, claiming these attacks were repelled (as they always do).

Let's wait until there is actual evidence, but this area has a lot of strategic value.
#Breaking RIA Novosti now confirms the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to advance in the Zaporizhzhya region, claiming that Ukraine is sending large amount of forces and military equipment in this sector of the front.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(