Gavekal's bottom-up analysis of China’s top 100 cities by GDP finds that all but 13 have imposed some form of quarantine restriction, and the intensity is increasing. We classified these cities from no restrictions (level 0) to full lockdown (level 4).
Shanghai and Jilin remain the worst-hit areas. In other places, lockdown measures no longer correlate well with actual case numbers, as cautious local officials impose more severe measures sooner (or keep them in place longer).
Asia’s status as a net commodity importer makes it vulnerable to price shocks. But despite the recent run-up in prices of food and oil contributing to sharp increases in producer prices, it has been puzzling to see limited pass-through into Asian consumer price indexes.
Disaggregating the data reveals that China, where state-owned enterprises have shouldered the burden of rising input costs without a commensurate increase in output prices, is a big outlier.
But other Asian countries have also been undertaking interventions to mitigate the impact on the end consumer, ranging from direct subsidies in Indonesia and Malaysia to fuel tax cuts in India and South Korea.
Chinese iron ore prices have tumbled as the country’s property market slows and local authorities expand restrictions on steel output, even as domestic steel prices remain elevated.
The drop in iron ore prices represents the unwinding of a Covid-19 squeeze which drove both steel and iron ore prices to record highs in the first half of 2021.
Chinese government restrictions on steel production have cut steel supply and iron ore demand, while the country’s slowing property market also dampened steel demand.
If anyone still had doubts, this week European Central Bank meeting was a convincing reminder that negative interest rate policies and quantitative easing are here to stay.
For the eurozone banking sector, this is a triple hit to profitability as reserves are taxed instead of being remunerated, interest rates are low and the yield curve is flat.
A modest consolation is the extension of the -1% rate on the ECB's long term refinancing operation (TLTRO) from June 2021 to June 2022. The money banks can earn by borrowing from the ECB more than compensates for the cost banks have to pay on heir reserves at the ECB.