Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 55-57: The past 72 hrs. have seen the Kremlin declare “victory” in Mariupol, with Ukrainian resistance continuing in the Azovstal area. Russia keeps up pressure in the Severodonetsk Salient with only marginal gains. #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine

2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees exceed 6.97 million, with over 7.4 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. Evidence of deliberate atrocities emerge from Bucha grow daily, lending credence to reports of mass graves & mobile crematoriums in Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1517333383336112128?s=20&t=4UOZKC-hkP0PieoxyQIWQw

3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of partly cloudy skies & light rain on 24 APR, wind speed will generally average at 9 mph. Air & artillery strikes will remain degraded, mud continues to restrict ground movement.

4/ Kharkiv OD. Russian forces continue to block Kharkiv by fire with little offensive action reported over the past 72 hours. Further west the Russians appear to have shifted their primary supply route from Belgorod to the Valuyki-Kupaiansk rail line. #Kharkiv #Belgorod

5/ Ukrainian forces are about 50km from Velykyi-Burluk and roughly 70km from Kupyansk. An attack by Ukraine toward either decisive geographic point would require at least 1x brigade supported by an additional artillery group, with potentially 1x brigade in reserve.

6/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Intense Russian air, artillery, and missile bombardment of the Severodonetsk Salient & Donbas Line of Contact continues. Russian forces could potentially mass 8x BTGs near Lyman to attempt a breakthrough NE of Slovyansk. #Izyum #Sloviansk #Donbas

7/ Without adequate quantitative knowledge of Russian & Ukrainian units, it is difficult to estimate what size force would be needed to succeed in a breakthrough battle, or to prevent one. It appears however that Russia is focusing offensive efforts to north central Donetsk.

8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian activity in the in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains focused on the capture of Mariupol. Russian attacks between Vasylivka, through Huliaipole, to Velyka Novosilka are likely meant to fix Ukrainian forces from reinforcing the Donbas. #Zaporizhzhia

9/ Mariupol. Russian forces have established control of Mariupol. However, Ukrainian defenders retain pockets of resistance in the Port of Mariupol and in the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone, with the Azovstal Steel Plant the focal point of Ukrainian defense. #Mariupol #Azovstal

10/ This complex is a vast maze of underground bunkers, tunnels, and passageways designed to withstand a nuclear attack. There are an estimated 1,500 – 5,000 Ukrainian troops defending the Azovstal area, enough to hold the area for weeks even under a degraded state.

11/ It is unlikely Russian air, artillery, and missile strikes will compel the Ukrainian defenders to surrender. No matter how the Kremlin tries to spin their occupation of Mariupol, as long as a sizable Ukrainian force remains at the heart of the city victory will be elusive.

12/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Oleksandrivka to the west of Kherson remains contested. Russian troops attempted an assault on Trudolyubivka south of Kryvyi Rih without success. Anecdotal reporting indicates Russian units in Kherson remain badly damaged. #Kherson

13/ Russian efforts appear to be focused on establishing a “Kherson People’s Republic”, but this remains stalled and difficult given continued civil resistance and a lack of competent local pro-Russian administrators to govern the area as a Russian proxy.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1516962497697304583?s=20&t=4UOZKC-hkP0PieoxyQIWQw

14/ Aerospace Assessment. Recent American intelligence briefs suggest the VKS has increased daily air sorties by 1.5 times the previous assessed daily 200 sorties. MANPADS remain the primary anti-air threat to the VKS in the Donbas.

15/ Information Advantage. Putin’s recent press conference declaring victory in Mariupol and canceling further direct assaults on the Azovstal steel plant is a clear signal that there is growing concern regarding domestic and military moral.

https://twitter.com/MaxBoot/status/1517101648765759488?s=20&t=4UOZKC-hkP0PieoxyQIWQw

16/ After the defeat in Kyiv, the loss of the Moskva, the failure to take Kharkiv, the tenuous hold on Kherson, and the admission of high casualties the Kremlin desperately needs to provide some sort of success to keep support for the war alive.

17/ Battle Damage Assessment. VKS have suffered a series of downed strike aircraft and attack/utility helicopters (not to mention several downed Orlan-10 UAVs), 92x Russian Soldiers KIA, 3x tanks, 22x vehicles, & 2x artillery systems destroyed in the past 72 hrs.

18/ Overall Assessment. The pace of offensive action in the Donbas has not yet displayed that the Russian military can obtain a significant operational victory in the next 17 days or by the end of May for that matter. The battle of Donbas may end in stalemate.

19/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

20/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.