Jomini of the West Profile picture
Apr 23 20 tweets 8 min read
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 55-57: The past 72 hrs. have seen the Kremlin declare “victory” in Mariupol, with Ukrainian resistance continuing in the Azovstal area. Russia keeps up pressure in the Severodonetsk Salient with only marginal gains. #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine Image
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees exceed 6.97 million, with over 7.4 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. Evidence of deliberate atrocities emerge from Bucha grow daily, lending credence to reports of mass graves & mobile crematoriums in Mariupol.
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of partly cloudy skies & light rain on 24 APR, wind speed will generally average at 9 mph. Air & artillery strikes will remain degraded, mud continues to restrict ground movement. Image
4/ Kharkiv OD. Russian forces continue to block Kharkiv by fire with little offensive action reported over the past 72 hours. Further west the Russians appear to have shifted their primary supply route from Belgorod to the Valuyki-Kupaiansk rail line. #Kharkiv #Belgorod Image
5/ Ukrainian forces are about 50km from Velykyi-Burluk and roughly 70km from Kupyansk. An attack by Ukraine toward either decisive geographic point would require at least 1x brigade supported by an additional artillery group, with potentially 1x brigade in reserve.
6/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Intense Russian air, artillery, and missile bombardment of the Severodonetsk Salient & Donbas Line of Contact continues. Russian forces could potentially mass 8x BTGs near Lyman to attempt a breakthrough NE of Slovyansk. #Izyum #Sloviansk #Donbas Image
7/ Without adequate quantitative knowledge of Russian & Ukrainian units, it is difficult to estimate what size force would be needed to succeed in a breakthrough battle, or to prevent one. It appears however that Russia is focusing offensive efforts to north central Donetsk. Image
8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian activity in the in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains focused on the capture of Mariupol. Russian attacks between Vasylivka, through Huliaipole, to Velyka Novosilka are likely meant to fix Ukrainian forces from reinforcing the Donbas. #Zaporizhzhia Image
9/ Mariupol. Russian forces have established control of Mariupol. However, Ukrainian defenders retain pockets of resistance in the Port of Mariupol and in the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone, with the Azovstal Steel Plant the focal point of Ukrainian defense. #Mariupol #Azovstal Image
10/ This complex is a vast maze of underground bunkers, tunnels, and passageways designed to withstand a nuclear attack. There are an estimated 1,500 – 5,000 Ukrainian troops defending the Azovstal area, enough to hold the area for weeks even under a degraded state.
11/ It is unlikely Russian air, artillery, and missile strikes will compel the Ukrainian defenders to surrender. No matter how the Kremlin tries to spin their occupation of Mariupol, as long as a sizable Ukrainian force remains at the heart of the city victory will be elusive.
12/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Oleksandrivka to the west of Kherson remains contested. Russian troops attempted an assault on Trudolyubivka south of Kryvyi Rih without success. Anecdotal reporting indicates Russian units in Kherson remain badly damaged. #Kherson Image
13/ Russian efforts appear to be focused on establishing a “Kherson People’s Republic”, but this remains stalled and difficult given continued civil resistance and a lack of competent local pro-Russian administrators to govern the area as a Russian proxy.
14/ Aerospace Assessment. Recent American intelligence briefs suggest the VKS has increased daily air sorties by 1.5 times the previous assessed daily 200 sorties. MANPADS remain the primary anti-air threat to the VKS in the Donbas.
15/ Information Advantage. Putin’s recent press conference declaring victory in Mariupol and canceling further direct assaults on the Azovstal steel plant is a clear signal that there is growing concern regarding domestic and military moral.
16/ After the defeat in Kyiv, the loss of the Moskva, the failure to take Kharkiv, the tenuous hold on Kherson, and the admission of high casualties the Kremlin desperately needs to provide some sort of success to keep support for the war alive.
17/ Battle Damage Assessment. VKS have suffered a series of downed strike aircraft and attack/utility helicopters (not to mention several downed Orlan-10 UAVs), 92x Russian Soldiers KIA, 3x tanks, 22x vehicles, & 2x artillery systems destroyed in the past 72 hrs.
18/ Overall Assessment. The pace of offensive action in the Donbas has not yet displayed that the Russian military can obtain a significant operational victory in the next 17 days or by the end of May for that matter. The battle of Donbas may end in stalemate.
19/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
20/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.

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More from @JominiW

Aug 3
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 148-158. The last 10-days of July saw the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF) offensive in northern Donetsk stall while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) make incremental gains in Kherson as they prepare for a counteroffensive. #UkraineRussianWar Image
2/ Weather Outlook. The 10-day Forecast will see temps range from 33-27 C during the day & 18-17 C at night. Cloud cover will not degrade air & missile strikes, while 25%-night illumination will aid ZSU infiltration activity. Wind Speed & direction favors SVRF artillery. Image
3/ Kharkiv OD. The Kharkiv OD remains an important disruption zone for the SVRF & ZSU. Intense positional engagements continue all along the Forward Line of Troops (FLOT) with increased Russian raids against likely lightly defended ZSU sectors. #Kharkiv
Read 18 tweets
Jul 24
1/ Ukraine SVKO, Day 124-148. Russian Strategic Aerospace Operations (SVKO) remains focused east of the Dnieper River, particularly in north central Donetsk Oblast and along the Black Sea Coast in the Odesa region. #UkraineRussiaWar Image
2/ Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have been conducting an extensive suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) campaign for the past 3-4 weeks here with little results. Air engagements between VKS & Ukrainian fights in the Odesa region has led to minor losses on both sides.
3/ It is likely the Russian MoD intends to severely weaken Ukrainian Air Defenses in the south to allow for VKS air & missile strikes to have greater latitude in interdicting the flow of military supplies from west Ukraine into the east.
Read 6 tweets
Jul 23
1/ Black Sea OTMO, Day 124-148. The Russian blockade of Odesa has been severely degraded as UAF air, artillery, & UCAV pressure (notably the introduction of improved anti-ship missile capabilities like the Harpoon) has loosened the Russian grip on sea lanes of the NW Black Sea.
2/ The inability of VKS & SVRF air defense systems to provide an umbrella of protection from Snake Island for VMF vessels against Ukrainian air and maritime forces has also been a decisive factor in freeing the NW Black Sea of a VMF presence.
3/ The danger to VMF task forces in sustaining the Russian presence on Snake Island coupled with the cost of maintaining its defense proved too high for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF).
Read 6 tweets
Jul 22
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 124-148. Late June to mid-July has seen a host of developments throughout the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF) have managed to secure the Luhansk Oblast but struggle to produce results on other fronts. Image
2/ Since it has been over three weeks since my last thread, I will be breaking up my normal update over the course of several days. There is a lot of data to analysis and discuss, therefore today’s thread will be a short one on the major events of the past three weeks.
3/ Weather Outlook. The ten-day Forecast will see temps range from 32-23 C during the day and 19-13 C at night. Cloud cover will not degrade air & missile strikes, while moderate night illumination will aid UAF infiltration activity. Wind Speed & direction favors UAF artillery. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 28
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 108-123. Mid-June has seen the Russian Armed Forces maintain their operational momentum and make important gains in the Donbas while the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to press their counteroffensive in the Kherson Oblast. #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar Image
2/ Weather Outlook. The ten-day forecast will see temps range from 32-28 C during the day and 20-15 C at night. Little to know cloud cover favors air & missile strikes, while good night illumination may hamper UAF SOF activity. Wind Speed & direction favors RAF artillery. Image
3/ Kharkiv OD. The situation here remains tenuous for both sides as heavy losses, coupled with priority of effort to the Izium-Lysychansk area have reduced the combat capacity & capability of units operating in Kharkiv. The RAF will continue attempts to advance closer to Kharkiv. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 11
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 98-107. The first week & a half of June has seen the Russo-Ukrainian War escalate into a deadly attritional phase dominated by artillery duels and positional battles with little major change in the forward edge of the battle area. #UkraineRussianWar Image
2/ Weather Outlook. Forecast for the next ten-days will see an initial 4-day period of thunderstorms in the Donbas that may slow operations in non-urban terrain. Temps will range from 31-14 C with higher humidity. Cloud cover & wind speed will make toss bombing problematic. Image
3/ Kharkiv OD. This remains a critical front and has become an unstable region over the past week. The RAF needs to expand its northern enclave to maintain pressure on Kharkiv & pin down UAF units still defending here. #Kharkiv Image
Read 25 tweets

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