Thread by @mercoglianos

1/@johnkonrad had this latest post that dealt with the issue of Ukraine closing several shipping routes out of the ports of Izmail and Reni on the Danube due to mines reported in the Gulf of #Odesa due to escalation in mining during the #UkraineRussiaWar.

gcaptain.com/floating-mines…

https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1518754186418171906

2/One of the issues raised by @johnkonrad and myself is the role of @NATO_MARCOM in the #BlackSea to protect shipping flagged and owned by @nato countries. We had numerous early incidents of ships being targeted and even used by Russia as a shield.

3/While most attention was drawn to the fight for Kyiv, the Russians aimed to form the land bridge from Crimea to Donbas, secure the Sea of Azov & blockade the Ukrainian coast. This has led to the dozen of ships and hundreds of mariners being trapped.

…list.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1140552/At-l…

4/The closing of Ukraine from the #BlackSea and #TurkishStraits has precipitated a potential shortfall in world wheat exports.

Yet, the neutralization of #Mariupol & opening of #SeaofAzov has allowed Russia to sail grain shipments into the #BlackSea.

gcaptain.com/russia-shippin…

5/That brings us to the point of the Maritime War in the #BlackSea. With nations from Austria in central Europe via the Danube, to the Central Asian states via the Volga-Don canal, along with Dnister & Dnipra rivers, the Russian blockade impacts not just #Ukraine.

6/The closing of one terminus of the Danube-Main-Rhine River canal poses a threat to the commercial and economic stability of not just Europe, the EU, but much of the world. The closest historical parallel was the Tanker War of the 80s. This may involve grain and oil.

7/The sinking of #Moskva by Ukrainians surface to surface anti-ship missiles, the proliferation of mining, the use of drones and aircraft, could turn the whole #BlackSea and not just the Gulf of Odesa & Sea of Azov into a shooting gallery for ships.

gcaptain.com/black-sea-ship…