Katherine Hersch Profile picture
Apr 30, 2022 8 tweets 9 min read Read on X
There's another significant #fire in #Russia of potentially suspicious origin. It's at the GRES-2 power station in the two of #Ilyinskoye. This is in the #Tomarinsky district of #Sakhalin province, located in Russia's far east, north of Japan. A🧵 with details & updates. 1/
The #fire at the GRES-2 power station on #Sakhalin in #Russia apparently started overnight in the turbine room and then spread to the roof. 2/
The #Sakhalin GRES-2 power station #fire in #Russia is said to have started when one of the stations turbines was being shut down. Based on the reports I've seen thus far, power on Sakhalin has not been disrupted. 3/
The GRES-2 electrical generating station is a 120 MW coal-fired plant. There originally were plans -- since cancelled -- to add another 240 MW of capacity to the station. As mentioned earlier, the plant on #Sakhalin in #Russia caught #fire last night. 4/
gem.wiki/Sakhalin_GRES-… Image
The GRES-2 power station in #Russia that caught #fire overnight is located in the southern part of #Sakhalin island, on its western side. 5/ Image
#Russia's #Sakhalin island, where the GRES-2 power station #fire occurred, is strategically important due to its oil and gas reserves. The Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, for example, provides 8-10 percent of Japan's #LNG consumption. 6/
nytimes.com/2022/04/27/bus…
Local news media on #Russia's #Sakhalin island have covered in detail the #fire the GRES-2 power station there. An employee says the fire started after "he heard some kind of pop." Local reports also indicate the fire has been extinguished. 7/
sakhalin.info/news/220605
The #Sakhalin power station #fire also has been covered by some of Russia's large news services. Here, for example, is a report from RIA Novosti: 8/
ria.ru/20220430/pozha…

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More from @ThatKHersch

Sep 14, 2022
1/ The leading German newsweekly, Der Spiegel, is reporting that the Biden administration is "quite sympathetic" to the idea of #Germany being the first country to provide #Ukraine with modern, western-designed #tanks and other armored vehicles.
spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
2/ Spiegel: "US diplomats recently signaled to the German government on several occasions that Washington was quite sympathetic to an explosive idea: that Germany would be the first country to announce tank deliveries and thus possibly involve other EU partners." Image
3/ The Spiegel report, which notes that Washington itself is still undecided about whether or not to supply Ukraine with western-designed tanks, dovetails with reporting by the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung earlier this week.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 13, 2022
1/ I like a lot about the analyses @MarkHertling shares on this site. But he has some explaining to do about a point in his latest thread where he suggests that there is something unexpected and potentially really bad about Ukraine wanting to recover Crimea.

Huh? Image
2/ Hertling includes "Will UKR attempt to recover Crimea?" in his list of "black swans" that could occur in the war in Ukraine. He defines "black swans" as "unpredictable" events that often have "severe consequences."
3/ So, for Hertling, Ukraine wanting to recover Crimea falls into the same category of events such as
- Russia continuing to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure, or
- Russia resorting to weapons of mass destruction
(which are some of the other "black swans" in his list).
Read 11 tweets
Jun 29, 2022
1/ Two major U.S. media outlets have recently reported that officials in the Biden administration are starting to doubt whether #Ukraine can regain Ukrainian territory currently occupied by #Russia.
2/ In a report early yesterday, CNN said "White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war ..."
cnn.com/2022/06/28/pol…
3/ "Advisers to President Joe Biden," CNN's report continued, "have begun debating internally how and whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian "victory" – adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly."
Read 10 tweets
Jun 28, 2022
1/ A neglected aspect of yesterday's "G7 Statement of Support for Ukraine" is how it talks about #Ukraine's #borders. The language is a positive development for those who (like me) believe the #war should end with #Russia gone from every square inch of Ukrainian territory. 🧵 Image
2/ Many past statements by allied leaders have been notable for not even mentioning Ukraine's borders. President Biden's essay in the New York Times a month ago, outlining U.S. goals for its support of Ukraine, is a notable (and notorious) example.
3/ Yet yesterday's G7 statement on Ukraine addresses the issue of Ukraine's borders at least three times, all of them early in the statement. I quote each of those instances below (with added highlighting via capitalization).
g7germany.de/resource/blob/…
Read 6 tweets
Jun 27, 2022
1/ The first of the German-supplied PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers are now in action in eastern #Ukraine. The German newspaper Bild has a report and photos of the howitzer in action.
bild.de/politik/auslan…
2/ One of the co-authors of the Bild report about the PzH 2000's being in Ukraine, @ronzheimer, also is sharing photos and video of the howitzer in action.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 20, 2022
1/ There have been reports today that Russian installations on occupied Snake Island have come under heavy bombardment by Ukrainian forces. There also is speculation the attack may have been carried out using HIMARS rocket launchers.

Would this be possible?

Yes.

A short 🧵. Image
2/ 70 km (43.5 miles) is the most commonly reported range of HIMARS launchers using the GMLRS munitions Ukraine's allies will be providing. That would put Snake Island within range of Ukrainian coastal areas under Ukrainian control. Image
3/ A closer look of the Ukraine coast within 70 km of Snake Island reveals that there are many locations where HIMARS launchers could be set up for an attack on Snake Island. Image
Read 7 tweets

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