Thread by @Martin_Sauer

My #keyword to show why "change through trade" works perfectly and how #Putin proved it to us.

https://twitter.com/_FriedrichMerz/status/1522208100903620610

Rationale:
#WandelDurchHandel refers to the idea of asking for broader concessions from the trading partner which are necessary for trade.

Such concession can be compliance with purity levels of raw materials, seals of approval for products (CE), but also of an order-theoretical nature, i.e. independent courts, recognition of the international court of justice, etc.

But it can also be the establishment of companies in the country of the trading partner, which receive equal treatment to domestic companies.

Procedure:
From a German perspective, the "idea" was thus also to trigger a democratization process in #Russia.

Result:
As it turns out now, #Putin has resisted this change. How was that possible?

Germany and therefore every single state in Europe did not have the leverage or the "commercial Power" to demand this agreement and make it mandatory. On the contrary, Putin used rising influence, power and therefore also money to strive for change on his part.

Putin clearly pursued the strategy of "change through trade" with the goal of destabilizing Western democracies, dividing populations, inflaming conflicts.

Troll factories, bitcoin crypto racketeers, Covid-19, AfD, Die Linke.... but also #Trump and Boris #Johnson ....

...were apparently in his focus. How far he had his "fingers in the pie", only serious investigations can reveal. However, the example of Germany's low #gas reserves (<1%) at the beginning of the war can be taken as evidence for such a point of view.

With a principle from science, named #OckhamsRazor the following applies: From several possible sufficient explanations for one and the same subject, the simplest theory is to be preferred to all others.

So for change through trade it would be:
1. all coincidence (Trump, UK exits EU, gas storage empty, split to Covid-19) and purely coincidental always to Putin's advantage, purely coincidental always with signs of Russia's involvement.

2. Most (all) of these developments were deliberately promoted by Putin in the context of change through trade.

According to Ockham's razor it is consequently 2nd - Putin has applied change through trade on us.

Voilá: Change through trade works. Even perfectly.

We just didn't realize that Putin used it on us.

Because we thought it was us....