Martin Sauer Profile picture
May 5 12 tweets 4 min read
My #keyword to show why "change through trade" works perfectly and how #Putin proved it to us.

#WandelDurchHandel refers to the idea of asking for broader concessions from the trading partner which are necessary for trade.
Such concession can be compliance with purity levels of raw materials, seals of approval for products (CE), but also of an order-theoretical nature, i.e. independent courts, recognition of the international court of justice, etc.
But it can also be the establishment of companies in the country of the trading partner, which receive equal treatment to domestic companies.

From a German perspective, the "idea" was thus also to trigger a democratization process in #Russia.
As it turns out now, #Putin has resisted this change. How was that possible?
Germany and therefore every single state in Europe did not have the leverage or the "commercial Power" to demand this agreement and make it mandatory. On the contrary, Putin used rising influence, power and therefore also money to strive for change on his part.
Putin clearly pursued the strategy of "change through trade" with the goal of destabilizing Western democracies, dividing populations, inflaming conflicts.

Troll factories, bitcoin crypto racketeers, Covid-19, AfD, Die Linke.... but also #Trump and Boris #Johnson ....
...were apparently in his focus. How far he had his "fingers in the pie", only serious investigations can reveal. However, the example of Germany's low #gas reserves (<1%) at the beginning of the war can be taken as evidence for such a point of view.
With a principle from science, named #OckhamsRazor the following applies: From several possible sufficient explanations for one and the same subject, the simplest theory is to be preferred to all others.
So for change through trade it would be:
1. all coincidence (Trump, UK exits EU, gas storage empty, split to Covid-19) and purely coincidental always to Putin's advantage, purely coincidental always with signs of Russia's involvement.
2. Most (all) of these developments were deliberately promoted by Putin in the context of change through trade.

According to Ockham's razor it is consequently 2nd - Putin has applied change through trade on us.

Voilá: Change through trade works. Even perfectly.
We just didn't realize that Putin used it on us.

Because we thought it was us....

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More from @Martin_Sauer

May 6
Für #Putin gibt es keine rote Linie zum Einsatz nuklearer Waffen. Die Diskussion hierzu ist eine Scheindiskussion.

Für ihn gilt: Falls brutale Gewalt nicht reicht, dann hast Du nicht genug davon eingesetzt.

Dazu zählen explizit auch Nuklearwaffen.
Warum das so ist, ist einfach erklärt. Spätestens seit Otto von Habsburg wissen wir, dass #Putin ein "Gangster" (Zitat), also ein gewissenloser Verbrecher ist.

Für jeden Zweifler hat Putin das spätestens in diesem Krieg beklemmend "eindrucksvoll" bewiesen.
Read 25 tweets
May 5
Mein #Stichwort aufzuzeigen, warum "Wandel durch Handel" perfekt funktioniert und wie #Putin uns das bewiesen hat.
#WandelDurchHandel bezeichnet die Idee, dass man vom Handelspartner weitergehende Konzessionen einfordert, die für den Handel erforderlich sind.
Solche Konzession können die Einhaltung von Reinheitsgraden von Rohstoffen sein, Gütesiegel bei Produkten (CE), aber auch ordnungstheoretischer Natur, also unabhängige Gerichte, Anerkennung des internationalen Gerichtshofs etc.
Read 13 tweets

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