-> Broad market is in a downtrend and the expectation is that rallies will be sold
-> #Uranium sector equities are showing momentary relative weakness
-> Spot price is showing relative strength
-> Long term trend in U leaders is mostly fully intact
Best way for an investor who has no means of timing the market, is to scale back in gently. It is to remember though that the possible downside is still quite large if the sector stays correlated to broad market.
Until the general market regains long term moving averages, and shows strength over them, market is in correction/bear market.
Fools rallies happen and can last several weeks. Absolute bottom can be pointed out only in hindsight.
Personally I keep taking both long and short positions with short, intraday to few days, timeframe, on relatively appealing fluctuations. As the volatility has increased, taking profits easily is recommended.
Will keep adding cash in rallies, until either RS turns favorable or..
broad market starts looking more bullish.
"Majority is usually wrong, when it's most important to be right."
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The indicator measures relative strength in two optional ways.
Ratio: Base symbol is divided by the comparative symbol.
Return for n period: Returns of base symbol and comparative symbols are compared within the time period user has defined.
Behind the options panel, it is possible to change the timeframe of the indicator, comparative symbol, and the desired method of Relative Strength comparison.
If the Return for n period is selected, the length of the period can be selected on next step.
About 5 years ago, I bought a log bandsaw mill. I had got tired of the bad quality of local sawmills, and wasnt really into buying my building material.
Since then, I have processed quite a many logs into a construction sawn timber.
Looking at todays prices, my investment...
...has returned about 1x each year. Sure, there is a cost for the wood, I could sell it, but most of the wood I have sawn, are injured by snow or storms. Even if I subtract the losed selling price, Im looking at 5x with todays prices.
Best thing is, the quality is top notch. I get exactly what I want, when I want, and I can have a small inventory of logs just in case I need something.
All of my new buildings are made of my own sawn timber, my own trees, that I felled myself.
Just few weeks back the thinness of the names that made new 52w highs was troubling me. That coupled with broad market looking bad, and extensions being quite high made me to reduce my participation. It was a good call.
Just looking at $URNM, after that last, April 13th being too extended call, ETF is down over 25%.
Looking at the broad indices, the market is hovering at the limit of decline. Losing the recent lows with distributive volume and it needs a hell of a risk-on catalyst to turn this boat.
2/
In crash, almost everything is positively correlated and that is true also when market anticipates one.
Commodities, especially equities, might need the crash to diverge from the broad market. Market needs to see commodity sector as a risk off asset for the separation.
3/
Distinction between a crash and a bear market is time. Crash happens in a bull market and recovers quite fast.
Bear market is a crash that takes long to recover, and in some cases it never does.
My trading account is full of cash, excl. $KAP which was filled today. This puts me around ~17% cash.
Market was giving hints of this price action.
Yesterday I didnt like the price action and close, so kept away of buying. It looks it was the right desicion.
Usually when I have a hunch of volatility, I suppress the timeframe of my trading. I go from week positions to day swings to intraday. My core positions are locked, Im not touching those here, why? Because I think its too late already. My way is to sell on strength, not weakness.
The shear velocity of the correction usually tells that we will have a countermove, but also that it usually is not to be expected to be a V bottom.
Might be that weakness is flushed away and new accumulation period begins, but this week some leaders had high dist days 3 of 5.