After all these years and tens of thousands of charts I've studied, especially in the weekends, I still enjoy it.

Let's go through one of my study processesses with some basic guidelines. Lets use weekly performers as an example as lot of my trading has focused lately on finding stocks that are suitable both to day trading and swing trading purposes.

Sunday morning coffee after the necessary start of the day with animals is usually the time where I scroll through the weekly/daily charts and last weeks setups assessment.

#uranium Looking through the whole #uranium sector, its obvious that asymmetric reward vs risk is EMERGING, but not yet wide spread. Any kind of liquidity flush from here will cause a future supply restriction as large entities will use that liquidity to load up the positions.

No way of knowing of course, and in the end, our opinions have no value.

What are the facts we currently have and on which we should base our acts upon instead of mere opinions?

->

#uranium #u3o8 #nuclear #investing #commodities

https://twitter.com/capnek123/status/1522987870184775681

-> Broad market is in a downtrend and the expectation is that rallies will be sold
-> #Uranium sector equities are showing momentary relative weakness
-> Spot price is showing relative strength
-> Long term trend in U leaders is mostly fully intact

I stripped some special features that are not significant and released my Relative Strength indicator in Tradingview, please check it out!

Relative Strength by @tepuuma The indicator measures relative strength in two optional ways.

Ratio: Base symbol is divided by the comparative symbol.

Return for n period: Returns of base symbol and comparative symbols are compared within the time period user has defined.

As I work daily with animals, I work with living creatures and life. On the backside of life is of course death.

Had to put down a cow today that couldnt get up. I had already helped it up for a week and a half, but something was broken that couldnt be fixed. On top of that, I bought this cow few months ago blindfolded, didnt go to see it beforehand. Wrong decision.

Note: Never. Trust. No. One.

One of the most valuable lessons I have learned on my way.

About 5 years ago, I bought a log bandsaw mill. I had got tired of the bad quality of local sawmills, and wasnt really into buying my building material.

Since then, I have processed quite a many logs into a construction sawn timber.

Looking at todays prices, my investment... ...has returned about 1x each year. Sure, there is a cost for the wood, I could sell it, but most of the wood I have sawn, are injured by snow or storms. Even if I subtract the losed selling price, Im looking at 5x with todays prices.

I think a YEEHAW! is at place here.

Can not say that recent price action is surprising. It is moving on the path of least resistance.

Recent returns on my trading account look quite different than my long term core positions do.

#uranium

https://twitter.com/tepuuma/status/1522209167510888451

Just few weeks back the thinness of the names that made new 52w highs was troubling me. That coupled with broad market looking bad, and extensions being quite high made me to reduce my participation. It was a good call.

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Weekend thoughts

Looking at the broad indices, the market is hovering at the limit of decline. Losing the recent lows with distributive volume and it needs a hell of a risk-on catalyst to turn this boat. 2/

In crash, almost everything is positively correlated and that is true also when market anticipates one.

Commodities, especially equities, might need the crash to diverge from the broad market. Market needs to see commodity sector as a risk off asset for the separation.

My trading account is full of cash, excl. $KAP which was filled today. This puts me around ~17% cash.

Market was giving hints of this price action.

Yesterday I didnt like the price action and close, so kept away of buying. It looks it was the right desicion. Usually when I have a hunch of volatility, I suppress the timeframe of my trading. I go from week positions to day swings to intraday. My core positions are locked, Im not touching those here, why? Because I think its too late already. My way is to sell on strength, not weakness.

First time I came across the #uranium sector was back in 2007-2008. It was the first few years of my investing career, and I had become interested about trend investing. Suffling through different commodities and leading stocks, the chart of $PDN really struck me among others. The stock had had a massive run from 2003 to 2007, but during those two years, 85% of the rally was wiped out. I wasn't investing in the sector at the time, I was a monthly saver in funds, but the magnitude of the price moves in these stocks really left a mark on me.

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In my view, there are two kind of asymmetry offered by the market.

Absolute asymmetry and relative asymmetry.

Some thoughts on a thread below. 2/

First of all, asymmetry is a financial opportunity where risk & reward ratio of investment is particularly skewed away from the mean in relation to "real value" and in relation to other sectors aswell.

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#Uranium equities relative performance using $URNM as a proxy

Since the URNM intracycle top of Nov 9th 2/4

#Uranium equities relative performance since using $URNM as a proxy

YTD

1/5

Many popular TA accounts in Twitter commit the original sin. They adjust and seek for the best fitting indicators to fit their own bias or the bias of their audience, and fail to reach objectivity, which in my view is the main principle of TA. 2/5

Technical analysis should not be complicated too much. At the end, price is only thing that matters.

Best analysis, IMO(!), focuses on the price levels of interest, and the path of least resistance.

It's not a prediction, it's a probability map.

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It's an old hymn to hold on through noise (multiple 50% corrections during cycle) and then just sell on the top. Easy right? Wasnt for me back in the past, thus far migrated into more active style of investing.

It's imperative to understand that most holders... 2/

...will keep on holding, and trip into the darkness from the cliff blindfolded.

I think selling should be easy. It should be easier than buying. No matter what your profit is at the top, if you dont realize it.

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Finally some of the #uranium equities have bled to a price levels, compared with enough time behind in the correction, where I can start looking to add into my long term positions. 2/

Overall, I said that I'd like to see H121 price levels to get me interested since I started increasing my cash position back in Oct.

1/

Zooming out to bigger picture for #uranium follows.

Ok, so we got a 30% correction at hand in $URNM, 28% $URA. Many of the underlying equities are starting to see 40-50%+ corrections.

Few basic causes -> 2/

#SPUT has been unable to buy enough physical from spot market to lift price, not because of Sprott, but because us market participants who control the share price through supply and demand, havent agreed on pushing and keeping the price in high enough premium.

1/

When the last great #uranium bull cycle ignited back in 2003-2004, broad market was starting to recover from the dotcom bubble.

Today we are in quite a different market environment where broad market is relatively a lot more expensive than it was back then. 2/

On $PDN for example, a 10% discount to 50 dEMA was a gift to add to. Many others gave 20-40% discounts to 50dEMA.

I'll chart few of the first comment charts here. One ticker per handle. OK lets do these five.

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It's funny when I have called some cos to reflect a ~65 pricing for example in the recent top, the counter argument has been many times that they are trading at a huge discount to the project NAV or NPV. How many of these ppl have actually done dcf analysis by themselves?

https://twitter.com/BambroughKevin/status/1448998238481174531

2/

Depending on when these studies have been released and what parameters they have used, I think Kevin knows his stuff. Typically 1.5x to 2.5x is a reasonable factor to capex.

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Some thoughts of my investment plan in #uranium.

My plan calls for some intra-sector rotation once the cycle starts to heat up.

There are some plays that will outrun others, for various reasons, some being the narrative, history & expectation probability. 2/

There are many equities that fit at least two of these categories, but at least $PDN is one that fits all of these three.

What do you think could be one?

At the end, the only commodity we REALLY need is food. What value does gold have, if both ends of the value chain are hungry? One needs to remember that there is someone out there, who will choose a piece of bread over a piece of gold. Supply chain of food relies heavily on energy. Rising energy price puts high pressure on primary producers of which many are already producing on thin margins. The rising price of food does not increase their profits, at least not at once, because many have long term contracts...